Heading into the NFL season, one of the most popular bets fans place is the Super Bowl champion. While a lot of money comes in on favorites, last year proved that sometimes it pays to mix in some long shots to win it all. Both the Seahawks and Patriots went into the season with 60-1 (+6000 American odds) or higher to win it all, so bettors are trying to find out who could be that next underdog to break through.
While it’s highly unlikely that we will see a matchup of two heavy underdogs again this season, there are a handful of teams that Vegas may be under-pricing. Whether it’s a team that has come close in recent years or a team on the rise, there is some great value in the middle of the pack for Super Bowl odds. All the real-money betting apps in the US have the following teams in a similar range of odds that bettors should consider when placing their futures before the 2026-27 NFL season. Let’s take a look at the 4 teams with the best combination of longshot odds & a real chance to win it all, giving us the best overall value for our bets.
San Francisco 49ers: +1900
For the 49ers, there are two major obstacles in the way of a return to the Super Bowl. The first is the strength of division. The 49ers have to deal with the reigning Super Bowl champs, the Seahawks, and the odds-on favorites to win it this year, the Rams. Secondly, the 49ers have to stay healthy, which is something they haven’t been able to do in years.
On the positive side, this is a team that knows what it takes to win games. Regardless of a long list of major injuries last season, they pulled off a 12-win season and a wild-card round victory. Now, they are getting back all of their key players, including George Kittle, who could be healthy as early as week 1. Most importantly, this is a team with a coach and a core, that have been there before. The 49ers know what it takes to reach the Super Bowl; now it’s a matter of staying healthy and closing the deal once they get there.
Denver Broncos: +2000
These are some of the most surprising odds on the board because there aren’t many obvious reasons to doubt the Broncos. They took a major step forward last season and have a realistic path to building on that success. The strength of the division is the biggest concern, but that argument carries less weight than it does in a division like the NFC West. The Chiefs were already showing signs of vulnerability before Mahomes’ knee injury, while the Chargers have a talented roster but still haven’t proven they can translate that talent into playoff success.
Meanwhile, the Broncos were probably a Bo Nix injury away from making it to the Super Bowl in his second season. The defense is incredible, and the offense added a real weapon in Jaylen Waddle. Maybe the health of Bo Nix’s ankle is a concern, but it shouldn’t be nearly enough to have a team coming off an AFC Championship appearance at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears: +2500
Chicago is coming off a season that ended with a playoff win over the Packers. The feeling is that this team is just scratching the surface of its potential. Williams took a big step forward and will have some of the most intriguing breakout pass-catchers to work with. Luther Burden III emerged as one of the league’s most exciting young receivers, and Colson Lovelabd emerged as a borderline top-5 tight end by the end of his rookie season. Ben Johnson now gets a second year to build around his franchise quarterback and young pieces. The Bears have talent on both sides of the ball and a young core that should only continue to improve.
The challenge will be getting through a loaded NFC, but that’s already reflected in the odds. At 25-1, bettors are getting a team with a proven playoff foundation, one of the brightest young quarterbacks in football, and a coaching staff that appears to have everything moving in the right direction. Hopefully, the Madden curse doesn’t get in the way of this great value pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars: +3000
With the longest odds on the list, the Jaguars have one advantage over the rest of the teams on here that face the same struggle. While the first 3 will have to deal with tough divisions, the Jags do not. A path to the playoffs seems clear, and this young team could be a problem for anyone they face once they get there. It took the Bills some late-gate heroics from Josh Allen to get by them last season.
It seems that Trevor Lawrence is finally beginning to reach his potential, with plenty of room still to grow. The former #1 pick was an MVP finalist last season, which should give him even more confidence heading into the year. The main gripe with the Jags is a less-than-impressive offseason. Their draft was subpar, and free agency wasn’t any better. However, they are getting Travis Hunter back and have a bunch of young players ready to prove themselves. At 30-1 odds, the Jags’ value is too good to overlook.