College football closes its opening week under the lights in Tallahassee. No. 19 SMU starts its season on the road against a Florida State team that already has a game in the books. The spread sits at a field goal and the market has nudged toward the visitors since summer. Both teams are also opening ACC play here, which is unusual for Week 1 and raises the stakes. Our headline pick leans on a number the public appears to be pushing.
Last Updated: Monday, September 7, 2026
SMU vs. Florida State — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee FL |
| When | Monday, September 7 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
SMU vs. Florida State Betting Preview
SMU arrives at 0-0 and ranked No. 19 in the AP Top 25. The Mustangs went 6-2 in ACC play last season and closed the year by beating Arizona 24-19 in the Holiday Bowl, the program’s first bowl victory since 2012. Rhett Lashlee returns quarterback Kevin Jennings, who owns a 14-2 record as a starter in conference games. Jennings jammed a finger on his throwing hand during fall camp and was limited for a stretch, but he was cleared well ahead of this opener. The Mustangs also brought in running back Kendrick Raphael and return All-ACC left tackle PJ Williams up front.
Florida State is unranked at 1-0 after a 34-17 Week 0 win over New Mexico State. Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels made his Seminole debut, going 17-of-27 for 202 yards with an interception while adding 30 rushing yards and a score. Ousmane Kromah supplied 115 rushing yards, and the Seminoles held the Aggies to 47 yards on the ground. The defense was less convincing on third down. Mike Norvell enters his seventh season after a 5-7 finish in 2025, the program’s second straight losing year without a bowl game.
The series history is short and one-sided. SMU won the only prior meeting 42-16 in Dallas on September 28, 2024, and this is the program’s first trip to Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State counters with All-ACC receiver Duce Robinson, who topped 1,000 receiving yards last season.
SMU vs. Florida State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | -3 (-105) | -150 | O 53.5 (-105) |
| Florida State | +3 (-115) | +130 | U 53.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
SMU vs. Florida State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| SMU | 67% | 33% | Florida State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
SMU vs. Florida State Prediction — Upset Alert in ACC?
Start with the line history, because it frames everything else. This game first hung at SMU -2.5 back in May. It reopened at SMU -2.0 in late August. It now sits at SMU -3 (-105), with 67 percent of spread tickets on the Mustangs. In other words, the number has crept up in step with the public rather than against it. That is the opposite of the pattern bettors look for when they want confirmation that sharp money is driving a move.
The case for SMU is straightforward. The Mustangs are the ranked team, the more stable program, and the side with the veteran quarterback. Jennings has been excellent in ACC games, and SMU beat this same opponent by 26 points two years ago. Florida State also allowed New Mexico State to move the chains on third down repeatedly in Week 0. If SMU’s front controls the line of scrimmage, three points will look like a bargain.
Still, the counterargument sits in the situation rather than the talent gap. Florida State has already worked out the early-season timing issues SMU will handle in real time. The Mustangs are opening on the road, at night, in a stadium they have never visited, against a home team with a clear revenge angle. A field goal is the most valuable number in football, and this is a home underdog getting exactly that. The risk is real. If Daniels turns the ball over the way he did at times in the opener, this can get away from Florida State quickly.
The Pick: Florida State +3 (-115)
SMU vs. Florida State Prediction — Total too High on Monday?
The total opened at 52.5 and has climbed to 53.5, so the market has leaned modestly toward points. There is logic behind it. Florida State’s Week 0 game produced 51 combined points, Robinson is a legitimate downfield threat, and the Seminole defense finished last season without much resistance in either phase. If Jennings is sharp early and SMU’s skill players get loose in space, this number is reachable well before the fourth quarter.
The other side rests on how both offenses want to operate. Florida State leaned on the run in the opener, with Kromah’s 115 yards leading the way, and a run-first script drains clock. SMU is playing its first game of the year, and season openers frequently produce sloppy possessions and drives that stall in plus territory. Add a road opener at night and the case for a slower, shorter game becomes reasonable at this price.
The Pick: Under 53.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If the read is that this game stays inside a possession, the moneyline is the leveraged version of the same opinion. Florida State at +130 pays better than even money on a home team the market listed as a near pick’em three months ago. The caveat is that a moneyline ticket loses on a one-point defeat that a spread ticket would win, so the spread remains the safer expression.
For more Week 1 context, our recent ACC upset-watch breakdown covers another league program in a tough spot, and our latest college football picks coverage looks at a much larger number. The current AP Top 25 rankings are worth a look before kickoff.
All picks in this article: Florida State +3 (-115), Under 53.5 (-115), and Florida State moneyline +130 as the bonus angle.
NCAAF SMU vs. Florida State FAQ: Monday September 7, 2026
What time does the SMU vs. Florida State game start?
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, September 7, 2026. Florida State announced the time in May as part of its schedule release. The game is the final contest of college football’s opening week and closes out the Labor Day slate.
What channel is the SMU vs. Florida State game on?
ESPN carries the broadcast nationally. The network was confirmed alongside the kickoff time when Florida State released its schedule details, and it remains the listed outlet on game day. Viewers can also stream the game through the ESPN app with a valid television provider login.
Where are SMU and Florida State playing?
The game is at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Florida State is the home team. This is SMU’s first appearance at the venue, since the only previous meeting between the programs was played in Dallas in 2024.
Who won the last meeting between SMU and Florida State?
SMU won the only prior meeting, 42-16, on September 28, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. That game came in SMU’s first season as an ACC member. Kevin Jennings threw three touchdown passes, and the Mustangs also returned an interception for a score.
Who is starting at quarterback for SMU and Florida State?
Kevin Jennings starts for SMU and Ashton Daniels starts for Florida State. Jennings returns after a jammed finger limited him in fall camp. Daniels, a transfer from Stanford, made his Seminole debut in Week 0 and completed 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards against New Mexico State.