San Jose State opens the 2026 season on the road against USC on Saturday afternoon, and the number is the story. The Trojans are laid at -38.5 with a total of 61.5, one of the widest lines on the Week 0 board. USC returns 15 starters from a nine-win team and opens the year ranked in the AP Top 25. San Jose State arrives with a new quarterback and a roster rebuilt through the portal. Below is the matchup breakdown, the line movement, the lopsided public split, and two best bets.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026
San Jose State vs. USC Trojans — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles CA |
| When | Saturday, August 29 – 3:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
San Jose State vs. USC Betting Preview
USC enters the season ranked No. 14 in the preseason AP Top 25 after finishing 9-4 last year. Lincoln Riley begins his fifth season in Los Angeles, and the roster he brings back is the reason for the ranking. The Trojans return 15 starters, tied for the most in the FBS, and they led the Big Ten in total offense in 2025. Riley also hired Gary Patterson, the former TCU head coach, to run the defense after that side of the ball faded against the better teams on the schedule.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava is the centerpiece. The redshirt senior threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season and led the nation with a 91.2 QBR. That kind of continuity is rare in the current college game.
San Jose State comes in from a different direction. Ken Niumatalolo is in his third season and is coming off a 3-9 campaign that included a 2-6 mark in the Mountain West. The Spartans replaced their quarterback through the portal, with Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver winning the job in camp. Weaver has two career starts. Roster turnover was heavy across the board, which matters in an opener because a new group has never played a live snap together.
The series is one-sided. USC is 6-0 all-time against San Jose State, and every meeting has been played at the Coliseum. The most recent came in 2023, when the Trojans won 56-28. That result landed inside the current number, which is where the handicap gets interesting.
San Jose State vs. USC Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose State | +38.5 (-115) | – | U 61.5 (-110) |
| USC | -38.5 (-105) | – | O 61.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, August 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
San Jose State vs. USC — Who Is the Public Betting?
| San Jose State | 89% | 11% | USC |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
San Jose State vs. USC Prediction — Can the Spartans Hang?
The line movement is the cleanest signal on the board. This game opened at -35.5 in late May, reached -39 two days ago, and settled at -38.5. The price has moved three full points toward the favorite over the summer. Meanwhile, 89 percent of spread tickets sit on San Jose State. When the ticket count leans that hard one way and the number moves the other way, the money is not following the count. Our full odds breakdown of this matchup tracks the same drift.
The case for laying the number rests on the mismatch in continuity. USC has its quarterback, its scheme, and most of its front five back from a top Big Ten offense. San Jose State is starting a quarterback with two career starts behind a reshuffled line. Openers tend to punish the team with less shared experience, and the Spartans allowed too many easy scores last season to project a defense that slows this offense for four quarters.
The case against is just as real, and it is about the size of the number. Anything near five touchdowns requires the favorite to keep scoring after the game is decided. Riley has pulled starters once games are out of hand, and USC’s freshman class will want reps. A running clock and one late drive from the underdog can erase a 38.5-point cushion in a hurry.
The Pick: USC -38.5 (-105)
San Jose State vs. USC Prediction — Will Teams Deliver Points?
The total has climbed as far as the spread has. It opened at 57.5 in June and now sits at 61.5, with both sides priced at -110. That four-point rise says the market expects USC to score at will, and the Trojans certainly can. They led their conference in total offense a year ago and have the quarterback back to do it again.
The other half of the equation is the problem. A 61.5 total generally needs both teams contributing, and San Jose State averaged well under 25 points per game last season with more offensive experience than it has now. If the Spartans stall early, USC’s scoring gets throttled by a comfortable second half. The counterargument is that Riley offenses can approach 50 alone, and quick three-and-outs would only raise the possession count.
The Pick: Under 61.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no bonus angle worth forcing here. No moneyline was posted for this game at publication, and a price on a five-touchdown favorite would carry little practical value anyway. The two primary markets are where the game is playable, and both positions above lean the same direction for the same reason: USC controls the scoreboard, and the underdog’s ability to answer is the open question.
It is worth naming the tension in holding both tickets. Laying 38.5 wants USC to keep its foot down, while the under wants a quiet fourth quarter. The overlap is a game decided by halftime that then coasts, which is the likeliest version of Saturday but not the only one. For more Week 0 lines, see our latest college football odds coverage.
Both picks for this game: USC -38.5 (-105) on the spread, and Under 61.5 (-110) on the total.
NCAAF San Jose State vs. USC FAQ: Saturday August 29, 2026
What time does the San Jose State vs. USC game start?
Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026, which is noon local time in Los Angeles. NBC’s pregame show, Big Ten College Countdown, starts at 2:30 PM ET. It is the first Big Ten game of the season.
What channel is the San Jose State vs. USC game on?
The game airs nationally on NBC. Noah Eagle handles play-by-play with analyst Todd Blackledge and sideline reporter Kathryn Tappen on the call. It is one of the featured windows on the opening Saturday of the college football season, and coverage begins a half hour before kickoff.
How can I stream the San Jose State vs. USC game?
The game streams on Peacock, which carries NBC’s college football broadcasts. It is also available through the NBC Sports app for viewers who authenticate with a pay-television provider. Both options carry the same 3:00 PM ET start and the same broadcast team as the television telecast.
Who won the last meeting between San Jose State and USC?
USC won the last meeting 56-28 on August 26, 2023, at the Coliseum. The Trojans lead the all-time series 6-0, and every game between the two programs has been played in Los Angeles. San Jose State has not yet beaten USC in the series.
Who is starting at quarterback for San Jose State and USC?
Luke Weaver starts for San Jose State and Jayden Maiava starts for USC. Weaver is a redshirt senior who transferred in from Hawaii and has two career starts. Maiava, also a redshirt senior, threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns for the Trojans last season.