No. 6 Indiana visits Ann Arbor on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite over Michigan, one week after its 22-game winning streak ended in a 19-15 loss to Ohio State. The Hoosiers have dominated on the scoreboard but not at the betting window, and Michigan hands the keys to a freshman quarterback for his first career start. The spread has ticked up, the total has climbed two points, and two-thirds of spread bettors are backing the road team. We break down where the value sits on the spread and the total, and which side of this Big Ten matchup we’re backing.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
Indiana vs. Michigan — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor MI |
| When | Saturday, October 24 – 12:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Indiana vs. Michigan Betting Preview
Indiana enters at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Big Ten play. The loss to Ohio State was the first for the Hoosiers since 2024, and it dropped them one spot to No. 6 in the AP Top 25. Curt Cignetti is now 33-3 at Indiana. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been nearly flawless, throwing 18 touchdown passes without an interception this season. Against Ohio State, he attempted a season-high 40 passes for 296 yards.
Still, Indiana has been a poor bet. The Hoosiers are 1-6 against the spread, tied for the worst mark in the country. The market has priced them like a juggernaut, and they keep winning without clearing the number.
Michigan is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the Big Ten under first-year head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Wolverines are coming off a bye after rallying past Penn State, 21-18. That game also produced the week’s biggest storyline. Bryce Underwood was benched at halftime, and true freshman Tommy Carr took over. Carr ran for a fourth-quarter touchdown in the comeback, and he will make his first collegiate start against Indiana.
Defense is Michigan’s identity. The Wolverines rank fourth nationally in total defense, allowing 256.5 yards per game, according to Michigan’s official game notes. Both teams own elite run defenses, so this game may be decided through the air.
History favors the home side. Michigan leads the series 62-11, and Indiana has not won in Ann Arbor since 1967. However, the Hoosiers won the last meeting, 20-15 in Bloomington in 2024.
Indiana vs. Michigan Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | -7.5 (-105) | -300 | O 43 (-110) |
| Michigan | +7.5 (-115) | +250 | U 43 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Indiana vs. Michigan — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Indiana | 67% | 33% | Michigan |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction — Can a Freshman Keep It Within the Number?
The spread opened at Indiana -7 and has moved to -7.5, with 67% of spread bets on the Hoosiers. That movement crosses a key number in a low-scoring matchup. The case for Indiana is obvious. Hoover protects the football, Indiana has the more productive offense, and Michigan will start a quarterback with two games of experience. A first career start against a top-10 opponent is a difficult assignment for any freshman.
However, the betting profile points the other way. Indiana has covered just once in seven games. Michigan’s defense has been strong all season, and it gives the Wolverines a path to keep this close. In a game projected in the low 40s, every half-point on the underdog side carries extra weight. Carr’s mobility also gives Michigan a new dimension. He ran for 36 yards and a touchdown in the second half against Penn State, and his legs against Indiana’s pass rush headline The Daily Hoosier’s key matchups.
The risk is that Indiana finally plays a complete game and Carr looks like a first-time starter. Still, the number has drifted toward the public side, and we prefer the points.
The Pick: Michigan +7.5 (-115)
Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction — Did the Total Climb Too Far?
The total opened at 41 and now sits at 43. That is a notable jump for a game between two of the nation’s best defenses. Michigan’s games have gone under in five of six this season, according to NBC Sports’ betting trends. A freshman quarterback in his first start also suggests a conservative, run-first plan with a shorter game.
On the other side, Indiana can score in bunches, and Hoover has thrown for big yardage against good defenses. If Michigan turns the ball over early, short fields could push the score past this number. Even so, both run defenses are elite, and the move to 43 gives us a better price on the under than the opener offered.
The Pick: Under 43 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Indiana at -300 on the moneyline implies roughly a 75% win probability. That is a fair price for a team with Indiana’s résumé, but it offers little value against a home underdog with an elite defense. We pass on the moneyline. The better angle is to lean on Michigan’s defense through both of our picks, since they work together. A low-scoring, grinding game helps the underdog stay inside the number.
The main thing that would make us wrong is Hoover. If he stays clean against Michigan’s secondary and Indiana builds an early lead, both picks are in trouble. For more Saturday handicaps, see our latest college football picks coverage.
Our picks for Indiana vs. Michigan:
- Michigan +7.5 (-115)
- Under 43 (-110)
NCAAF Indiana vs. Michigan FAQ: Saturday October 24, 2026
What time does the Indiana vs. Michigan game start?
Indiana vs. Michigan kicks off at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026. The game is played at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It is the 74th meeting between the two Big Ten programs, and Michigan holds a 62-11 lead in the all-time series.
What channel is the Indiana vs. Michigan game on?
The Indiana vs. Michigan game airs nationally on FOX in the noon ET window on Saturday, October 24. Fans can find it on their local FOX affiliate or through any TV provider that carries FOX.
Who won the last meeting between Indiana and Michigan?
Indiana won the last meeting, beating Michigan 20-15 in Bloomington in 2024. Before that win, Michigan had dominated the series for decades. Indiana has not won at Michigan Stadium since 1967, so the Hoosiers are chasing their first victory in Ann Arbor in nearly six decades.
Who is starting at quarterback for Indiana and Michigan?
Josh Hoover starts for Indiana, and true freshman Tommy Carr makes his first collegiate start for Michigan. Hoover has 18 touchdown passes and no interceptions this season. Carr replaced the benched Bryce Underwood during Michigan’s 21-18 comeback win over Penn State and scored a rushing touchdown in that game.
Is Indiana or Michigan ranked?
Indiana is ranked No. 6 in the latest AP Top 25, and Michigan is unranked. The Hoosiers slipped one spot after their 19-15 loss to Ohio State, their first defeat since 2024. Indiana is 6-1 overall, while Michigan is 4-2 and 1-2 in Big Ten play.