Ball State opens the 2026 season inside Ohio Stadium on Saturday as one of the biggest underdogs on the Week 1 board. The spread is 51 points and the total is 56.5. Ohio State is the preseason No. 1 team in the country, and the Cardinals start a first-time college quarterback. The number is the real story, though, and our two picks below lean on how games like this actually finish.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026
Ball State vs. Ohio State — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio |
| When | Saturday, September 5 – 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Ball State vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
Both teams arrive at 0-0. This is a non-conference meeting between the Big Ten and the MAC, and the first game the two programs have ever played. Ohio State opened at No. 1 in the AP preseason poll with 40 of the 69 first-place votes. Ball State is unranked and was picked 10th in the MAC preseason coaches poll.
The Buckeyes went 12-2 last season and 9-0 in Big Ten play. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after a Heisman Trophy finalist year in which he led the nation at 77.0 percent completions, threw for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns, and gave the ball away just eight times. Receiver Jeremiah Smith is back off a unanimous All-America season of 87 catches for 1,243 yards. Running back Bo Jackson topped 1,000 rushing yards as a true freshman. Ryan Day returns 11 starters overall and enters his eighth season.
The defense is the harder matchup for a MAC visitor. Ohio State allowed 9.3 points per game in 2025 and gave up only 12 touchdowns from scrimmage all season. However, that unit lost heavily via graduation. Only three defensive starters return, and Day has said several true freshmen will play meaningful snaps here.
Ball State finished 4-8 overall and 3-5 in the MAC in Mike Uremovich’s first season, and he is now in year two. The roster has turned over almost completely, with 59 newcomers including 35 transfers, and only two defensive starters return. Keldric Luster, a transfer by way of SMU and Texas State, was named the starter on August 20 and makes his first career start. Per the school’s official game notes, veteran interior lineman Cole Mosier sits out this week. The Cardinals averaged 15.8 points per game last year.
Ball State vs. Ohio State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | +51 (-115) | Not offered | U 56.5 (-115) |
| Ohio State | -51 (-105) | Not offered | O 56.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Ball State vs. Ohio State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Ball State | 98% | 2% | Ohio State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Ball State vs. Ohio State Prediction — Can Anyone Actually Cover 51?
Start with the case for the favorite, because it is strong. Ohio State has won 26 consecutive season openers and is 39-1 all time against current MAC members. Day’s teams are 25-1 in September and 21-1 in regular-season non-conference games. A defense that allowed 12 touchdowns all of last season now faces a quarterback making his first career start behind a line missing a veteran. Short fields are how a favorite reaches the high 50s.
Then there is the other half. Day is 8-0 in season openers with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points, barely half this number. Ohio State scored 33.4 points per game last season. Blowouts also carry their own brakes: a running clock, deep backups, and a staff with a trip to No. 4 Texas waiting seven days later.
One thing to be honest about: the crowd is already here. Spread tickets are running 98 percent on the Cardinals, and the line has ticked from -50.5 up to -51 rather than down. That is not the direction a heavily backed side usually moves. In fairness, lopsided ticket counts on 50-point dogs are close to normal, so the signal is softer than the raw split suggests.
The Pick: Ball State +51 (-115)
Ball State vs. Ohio State Prediction — Does This One Get to 57?
The total asks a narrower question. Ohio State has to do most of the scoring, because Ball State averaged 15.8 points per game last year and now starts a quarterback with no college starts against a defense that allowed 9.3 points per game. If the Cardinals are held near a field goal, the Buckeyes need roughly 54 on their own. That sits well clear of their 33.4 average last season.
The other side is simple enough. Day’s teams have averaged 41.7 points across their last 30 games, and a fast start from Sayin and Smith can put up 28 before halftime. Add a return touchdown and the math changes quickly. The pricing has drifted the other way, though. The under opened at -105 and now sits at -115, a small but real signal. Second-half clock management also cuts play volume.
The Pick: Under 56.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no moneyline posted for this game, which is typical when a spread reaches this size, so there is no price angle to work there. That leaves the two sides above, and they are correlated. Both need the same thing: Ohio State winning comfortably without running the score into the mid-50s. If the Buckeyes are still pressing in the fourth quarter, both lose together.
For context on how Group of Five road trips have priced this week, see our UTEP vs Oklahoma Prediction September 4 and Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction September 4 breakdowns.
Both picks: Ball State +51 (-115) and Under 56.5 (-115).
NCAAF Ball State vs. Ohio State FAQ: Saturday September 5, 2026
What time does the Ball State vs. Ohio State game start?
Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Both schools list that time in their official game notes. It is the season opener for each team, and it is the first of four trips to the state of Ohio on Ball State’s 2026 schedule.
What channel is the Ball State vs. Ohio State game on?
The game airs on Big Ten Network. Jeff Levering handles play-by-play with Jake Butt as analyst and Brooke Fletcher on the sideline. Ball State also carries the game on the Ball State Gainbridge Radio Network, and the Buckeyes’ call runs on the Ohio State Sports Network.
Where are Ball State and Ohio State playing?
The game is at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, a venue that seats 102,780 and ranks as the third-largest on-campus football stadium in the country. This is Ball State’s first football trip to the building in program history, and its first meeting with Ohio State.
Is Ball State or Ohio State ranked?
Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll, earning 40 of the 69 first-place votes ahead of No. 2 Oregon. Ball State is unranked and received no votes. It is the second time in four seasons the Cardinals have faced the AP’s top-ranked team, after playing at Georgia in 2023.
Who won the last meeting between Ball State and Ohio State?
There is no last meeting. Saturday is the first game these two programs have ever played, and the all-time series stands at 0-0. Ball State is 3-31-1 against schools currently in the Big Ten, with its most recent win over a Big Ten opponent coming at Indiana in September 2012.