Last Updated on August 30, 2023 12:13 pm by Alex Becker
Wisconsin Win Total Prediction
The Wisconsin Badgers were a disappointment in 2022. Wisconsin went 7-6 and fired head coach Paul Chryst mid-season before eventually beating Oklahoma State in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl 24-17.
With new head coach Luke Fickell can the Badgers soar past their 2022 regular season win total in 2023?
Wisconsin Badgers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -135
Under 8.5 +115
2022 Season Recap
Wisconsin got off to a bad start in 2022 and never seemed to really recover. The Badgers lost a home game to a mediocre Washington Stae squad in Week 2, beat a terrible New Mexico State team the next week, and then proceeded to lose three out of their next four. Wisconsin longtime head coach Paul Chryst was fired in the midst of that losing skid, and Badgers defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was tabbed as the interim head coach. Wisconsin didn’t fare much better under Leonhard as the club went 4-3 to finish out the season, but lost rivalry games to Iowa and Minnesota. Wisconsin has long had the identity of a team that runs the ball and plays tough defense. Last season, the Badgers ranked 48th in average yards per rushing attempt and 70th in opponent yards per point. 2023 will assuredly be different as Wisconsin has a new head coach and has added several potential impact players through the transfer portal.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: C Joe Tippmann, NT Keeanu Benton, OLB Nick Herbig, OL Tyler Beach, OT Logan Brown, QB Graham Mertz, QB Deacon Hill, S Titus Toler, RB Julius Davis, LB Spencer Lytle
Key Player Additions: WR C.J. Williams, QB Tanner Mordecai, QB Nick Evers, C Jake Renfro, EDGE Darian Varner, WR Bryson Green, QB Braedyn Locke, C Joe Huber, DB Jason Maitre, EDGE Jeff Pietrowski
Wisconsin was plagued by inept quarterback play last season. Sophomore Graham Mertz threw for only 2,136 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while only completing a career-low 57.3% of his passes. Badgers head coach Paul Chryst had to take the fall for Mertz’s failings, and now both men will be at different schools in 2023. New Badgers head coach Luke Fickell was very active in the transfer portal this offseason. He brought in three quarterbacks that should all challenge each other for the starting job. The most likely starter will be former SMU QB Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai will be a sixth-year senior in 2023, and he’s coming off of back-to-back seasons where he threw for 3,500+ yards and 33+ touchdowns. He’ll have plenty of targets to throw to as Wisconsin added wide receivers C.J. Williams from USC, Will Pauling from Cincinnati, and Bryson Green from Oklahoma State. Of those three wideouts, the most intriguing is likely C.J. Williams who was buried on USC’s depth chart last season. Williams has the size (6’2’ 188 pounds) and pedigree (four-star prospect) to have a breakout season for the Badgers in 2023.
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Wisconsin’s defense needed to be virtually flawless last season for the team to compete. It wasn’t, so they didn’t. This year, the defense likely won’t have to be as good because the offense should be more dynamic. Despite that, Luke Fickell and his staff added a pair of defensive players that should be featured in starting roles for the Badgers in 2023. Former Temple edge rusher Darian Varner should slide into the right defensive end spot for Wisconsin, and he’s coming off of a season where he recorded 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 10 games for the Owls in 2022. Former Boston College safety Jason Maitre should start as Wisconsin’s nickel back this season. Maitre recorded a sack, an interception, and 6 passes defended for the Eagles last year. Both Varner and Maitre should make positive contributions to a Wisconsin defense that will have something to prove in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Head coach Paul Chryst, interim head coach/defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bobby Engram
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Luke Fickell, defensive coordinator/inside linebackers coach Mike Tressel, offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Phil Longo
Wisconsin hiring former Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell was one of the best coaching hires of the college football offseason. Fickell went 57-18 as the head coach of the Bearcats and even made the College Football Playoff in 2021 after going undefeated in the regular season. It was the first (and still only) time that a Group of 5 team has made the College Football Playoff. It stands to reason that if Fickell was that successful with the resources of Cincinnati then he could fare even better with the resources of a Big Ten team like Wisconsin. He should have the Badgers competing for the Big Ten West right away.
The second-most fascinating coaching hire for Wisconsin was former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who was hired to be the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Wisconsin. Longo presided over a North Carolina offense that averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt last season, a figure that ranked 19th in the FBS. Longo was the OC/QB coach for four years with the Tar Heels and he worked wonders with quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake May during that span. Phil Longo was one of the most sought-after coordinators during this past college football offseason, and his offensive acumen is a big reason why. With the addition of Fickell and Longo to the Wisconsin coaching staff, several quarterbacks and wide receivers elected to transfer into the program. There is the expectation that Wisconsin’s offense will be much more dynamic than it has been in the past decade, and that could bode well for the team’s chances in the weaker Big Ten West division this upcoming season.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to SI.com, Wisconsin has the 90th-hardest schedule out of 133 FBS teams. The Badgers play in the Big Ten West and they won’t face Michigan or Penn State in 2023. Instead, for their cross-divisional opponents, Wisconsin gets two relatively easy foes in Rutgers and Indiana and one formidable opponent in Ohio State. I have Wisconsin losing to Ohio State, but the game is in Madison and should be competitive.
If Wisconsin is at least 6-1 or better going into the Ohio State game, they have an excellent chance of winning 9 regular season games and going over the total. Wisconsin’s toughest tests in the first half of the season will be road tilts with Purdue and Illinois and a home date with Iowa. I think the Badgers win two out of three of those, which would make the club 6-2 with 4 games to go (assuming Wisconsin loses to Ohio State). From there, Wisconsin only has to go 3-1 against Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota. That seems very possible to me. Ideally, Wisconsin would be 9-2 going into the Minnesota game, because the Badgers have lost two straight and three out of five to the Gophers after defeating them 14 years in a row prior to that stretch. In a year with a lot of changes, I think Wisconsin’s offense takes the Big Ten by storm, and they compete for a Big Ten West title and a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game. It’s going to look different, but I like the Badgers to win 9 regular season games or more for the first time since 2019 and go over the total in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WISCONSIN BADGERS OVER 8.5 WINS -135