The New York Yankees head to the North Side for an interleague weekend, opening at Wrigley Field against a Chicago Cubs team squarely in the National League postseason picture. Chicago sits as a home favorite at -152 on the moneyline, but the number tells only part of the story. The matchup pits Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga against Yankees right-hander Will Warren, and that gap in reliability is the thread we pull on for our lean. The market has nudged toward the Cubs since the open, and the reason behind that move matters as much as the move itself.
Last Updated: Friday, July 31, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| When | Friday, July 31, 2026 — 2:20 PM ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network / YES Network |
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The starting pitching sets the tone here, and it favors the home side. Imanaga carries a 3.72 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, the profile of a strike-thrower who keeps the bases clean and works efficiently. Warren counters with a 4.41 ERA and a much heavier 1.40 WHIP, which means far more traffic on the bases. The right-hander has also scuffled through a rough recent stretch, dropping several straight decisions as his command has wavered. When one starter limits free passes and the other invites them, that difference shows up in run prevention over a full afternoon.
The standings add context. Chicago enters at 62-47, second in the National League Central and in the Wild Card mix. New York sits 61-48, second in the American League East and 2.5 games back, but arrives having dropped two straight. Both clubs went 6-4 over their last 10, so neither is limping in. Still, the day-game setting at Wrigley and the arm advantage give Chicago the cleaner script.
None of that erases the Yankees’ upside. New York’s lineup carries top-of-the-order thump that can turn one mistake into a two-run swing, and Warren still misses bats when his slider is working. The road case rests on power beating command; the Chicago case rests on the more repeatable profile.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | +1.5 (-160) | +127 | U 9 (-105) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+135) | -152 | O 9 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of July 31, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 29% | 71% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Cubs Best Bet — Can New York Snatch Game 1 From Chicago?
The pitching edge is the load-bearing reason to side with Chicago. Imanaga’s 1.10 WHIP is the mark of a pitcher who controls the count and keeps innings short, and that efficiency lets him work deeper while sparing the bullpen. Warren’s 1.40 WHIP tells the opposite story. More walks and more hits mean longer innings, higher pitch counts, and an earlier exit. Add the recent slide, in which Warren has lost his last several starts, and the home team lines up with the more dependable arm.
The market has leaned the same way. The Cubs opened around -138 on the moneyline and have been bet up to -152, while their run line shortened from +165 to +135. That confirms the popular read rather than fighting it. Honesty demands the caveat: the public is 71% on the Cubs against the run line and 62% on the moneyline, so the money and the tickets push the same direction. This is not a sharp-only signal. It is a case where the recreational side and the fundamentals happen to agree.
The counter is real. Laying -152 means paying a full price on an afternoon where the line has already absorbed the obvious edge, and there is little cushion if the game turns on one swing. New York’s bats can punish Imanaga if he catches too much of the plate, and the Cubs’ offense has run hot and cold. We prefer the moneyline to the -1.5 run line because a home favorite stops batting once it leads, and this profiles as a competitive game rather than a blowout.
The Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-152)
Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction — Will the Run Total Stay Grounded?
The total sits at 9, and the same starter who anchors our side shapes this lean. Imanaga is the biggest single lever on the run environment, and a left-hander with a sub-1.10 WHIP working into the sixth or seventh keeps the Yankees’ scoring in check. If Chicago’s better arm does his job and the game tightens late, the number to nine runs starts to look tall. The total also held firm at 9 from the open, a sign the market is comfortable there rather than reaching for a higher line.
The other side is worth respecting, which is why this reads as a lean rather than a strong play. Warren’s heavy WHIP invites base traffic, and a Cubs lineup at home can pile on quickly against a scuffling starter. Wrigley can also play big when the ball carries. If Warren exits early and both bullpens get stretched, nine runs is within reach. The under leans on Imanaga controlling his half of the ledger more than on both offenses going quiet.
The Pick: Under 9 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor to watch is how long Warren lasts. If his command betrays him early and the Cubs push a crooked number across, this game can get away from New York quickly. That scenario opens a bonus angle for bettors who want a bigger price. The Cubs run line at -1.5 pays plus money because a home favorite winning by two or more is harder than simply winning. It is the riskier vehicle, but if you expect Warren to get knocked around, the return matches the risk.
To recap the card: the strongest play is the Chicago Cubs moneyline at -152, backed by the pitching edge and home field. The secondary lean is the Under 9 at -105, resting on Imanaga’s ability to limit the Yankees. For a longer-priced swing, the bonus angle is the Cubs run line -1.5 at +135. Each is a read, not a guarantee, and the road side has a live path if New York’s power shows up early.
Bonus Angle: Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+135)
MLB Yankees vs. Cubs FAQ: Friday July 31, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Cubs game start?
First pitch is set for 2:20 PM ET, which is 1:20 PM local time in Chicago, on Friday, July 31, 2026. The game is a weekday afternoon contest at Wrigley Field, the opener of a three-game interleague series between the Yankees and Cubs.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Cubs game on?
The game airs on Marquee Sports Network in the Cubs market and on the YES Network in the Yankees market. Fans outside those regional territories can stream the broadcast through Fubo, which carries both regional sports networks in most packages.
Who is pitching for the Cubs and Yankees?
Left-hander Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs, and right-hander Will Warren takes the ball for the Yankees. Imanaga brings a 3.72 ERA into the outing, while Warren carries a 4.41 ERA. The contrast in their command profiles is the central storyline of the matchup.
Where are the Yankees and Cubs playing today?
The game is at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, the Cubs’ home ballpark on the city’s North Side. Chicago holds home-field advantage for this interleague series, and the Cubs entered the day with a 30-22 record at Wrigley this season.
Where do the Yankees and Cubs stand in their divisions?
The Yankees sit second in the American League East at 61-48, 2.5 games back of the division lead. The Cubs are second in the National League Central at 62-47 and firmly in the Wild Card race. Both teams entered the series with a 6-4 record across their last 10 games.
For more on both clubs coming in, see our Yankees vs. White Sox prediction and our Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction from the previous series.