Last Updated on January 7, 2010 12:00 pm by drew
BCS Title Game Pick
The College Football season comes to an end on Thursday when Alabama and Texas face off in the 2010 BCS National Championship at 8:10PM ET from The Rose Bowl.
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Texas is 13-0 on the season but just 5-7-1 against the spread. The Longhorns are the Big 12 Conference champions, and enter this game as the underdog for the first time this year.
Alabama is also 13-0 on the year and is 8-4 against the spread this season. The Crimson Tide are the SEC Champions for 2009 after defeating Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship for the Gators lone loss of the season.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made Alabama 3.5-point favorites over Texas on Thursday night. The over/under total for this game has been established at 46.
Texas has one of the top offenses and defenses in the country this year. The offense is scoring 40.7 points per-game as Colt McCoy has thrown for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns while rushing for 348 yards and three scores. Jordan Shipley has caught 106 passes for 1,363 yards and 11 scores and also has two punt returns for touchdowns on the year. The Texas defense is allowing just 15.2 points and 251.8 yards per-game. The Longhorns have allowed just 818 rushing yards in 13 games this year. The Texas secondary has compiled 24 interceptions on the year with Earl Thomas racking up eight interceptions and two defensive touchdowns.
Alabama is similar to Texas in numbers. The Crimson Tide offense is scoring 31.7 points per-game on offense and holding opponents to just 11 points and 241 yards per-game on defense. The Tide have been led by Heisman winner Mark Ingram, who has rushed for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ingram averages 6.2 yards per-carry and has also caught 30 passes for 322 yards and three scores. Quarterback Greg McElroy has improved throughout the year, throwing for 2,450 yards and 17 touchdowns with only four interceptions. On defense, Alabama has held opponents to only 1,015 rushing yards and 2,129 passing yards in 13 games. The defense may be without linebacker Rolando McClain, who has been battling a virus this week.
This game is a tough call for a reason. I think most people wanted to jump on Alabama’s bandwagon after the SEC Championship, but with the struggles of the SEC in bowl play and some impressive showings by the Big 12, that may have changed things. Nebraska showed just how tough it is to move on its defense and yet Texas still found a way to win. The Texas defense isn’t getting a lot of respect but looks to be equal to that of Alabama’s. Ingram will struggle to run on Texas and that puts all of the pressure on McElroy, who is going up against a ball-hawking defense. Trends show that Texas is 27-13 against the spread as an underdog and we feel they are the best play as the Longhorns seem to have more ways and weapons to win in this game with the two defenses being so equal. Remember that Alabama’s offense was considered terrible prior to the SEC Championship. For these reasons, we suggest a pick of Texas with the points and the under.
Our BCS National Championship Free Pick for this matchup is: TEXAS +3.5 and UNDER 46.
College Football Bowl Season Betting Trends
ALABAMA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’s last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Bowl Season College Football Injury Report
TEXAS
[LB] 09/21/2009 – Jared Norton out for season ( Shoulder )
[S] 09/30/2009 – Christian Scott out for season ( Academics )
[WR] 09/30/2009 – Brandon Collins out for season ( Academics )
[TE] 08/19/2009 – Blaine Irby out for season ( Knee )
[TE] 08/19/2009 – Ian Harris out for season ( Neck )
[TE] 08/19/2009 – D.J. Grant out for season ( Knee )
[CB] 11/18/2009 – Eryon Barnett out for season ( Shoulder )
[KR] 12/21/2009 – DJ Monroe is upgraded to probable vs. Alabama in Rose Bowl ( Not Suspended )
[WR] 01/04/2010 – John Chiles is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Alabama ( Ankle )
[DT] 01/04/2010 – Calvin Howell expected to miss Thursday vs. Alabama ( Concussion )
[OL] 12/30/2009 – Mason Walters expected to miss Thursday vs. Alabama ( Foot )
ALABAMA
[DE] 09/14/2009 – Damion Square out for season ( ACL )
[LB] 09/28/2009 – Dont’a Hightower out for season ( Knee )
[RB] 09/29/2009 – Jeramie Griffin out for season ( Knee )
[lb] 11/14/2009 – Brandon Fanney dismissed from team ( Disciplinary )
[LB] 11/14/2009 – Prince Hall dismissed from team ( Disciplinary )
[WR] 12/02/2009 – Micheal Bowman out indefinitely ( Knee )
[CB] 01/03/2010 – Marquis Johnson is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Texas ( Thumb )
[RB] 01/04/2010 – Terry Grant "?" Thursday vs. Texas ( Abdominal )
[LB] 01/05/2010 – Rolando McClain "?" Thursday vs. Texas ( Virus )
[DB] 01/05/2010 – Rod Woodson "?" Thursday vs. Texas ( Virus )
BCS National Championship Odds
Texas Longhorns +3.5 Over 46 (+155)
Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 Under 46 (-175)
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Posted: 1/7/10 12:00PM ET