Our Pennsylvania vs Illinois prediction centers on a rematch of last March’s NCAA Tournament first-round game, with a very different Illinois rotation on the floor. Illinois is laying 30.5 points at home on Thursday night, and the total sits at 169.5. However, two Illinois regulars will not play, and Pennsylvania brings back most of an Ivy League title team. We break down where the number looks right, where it looks stretched, and the two plays we like best.
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois — Time and How to Watch
| Where | State Farm Center, Champaign IL |
| When | November 5 – 8:30 PM ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois Betting Preview
Availability shapes this game more than anything else. Illinois forward David Mirkovic, who led last season’s team at 8.0 rebounds per game, had an emergency appendectomy on top of an earlier foot surgery. Head coach Brad Underwood ruled him out with no return timeline. Senior wing Jake Davis is also out indefinitely after surgery on a separated shoulder he hurt in the opener.
Even shorthanded, Illinois is No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and coming off a historic night. Illinois beat FDU 120-45 on Monday, a 75-point margin that set a program record. They also hit 19 threes on 51 attempts, and both figures are school marks. Illinois went 28-9 last season and reached the Final Four before losing to UConn.
Pennsylvania opens its season here. Fran McCaffery is in his second year, and Pennsylvania was picked first in the Ivy League preseason media poll. The program went 18-12 last season and won the Ivy tournament to reach the NCAA field. TJ Power returns after averaging 16.4 points and 7.6 rebounds. Still, leading scorer Ethan Roberts left for Notre Dame, and that is a real hole.
Pennsylvania’s rotation has continuity beyond Power. Point guard AJ Levine led the team in assists and steals last season, and Michael Zanoni scored 20 points in the March meeting. Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed adds another ball handler. In contrast, Illinois is still sorting out roles after the two injuries.
The history is one-sided. Illinois leads the all-time series 7-0, including a 105-70 win in the NCAA first round on March 19. This is a non-conference game between a Big Ten power and the Ivy favorite. For comparable spots this week, see our Manhattan vs. Kentucky prediction.
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois Odds
| Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | +30.5 (-110) | O 169.5 (-110) |
| Illinois | -30.5 (-110) | U 169.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAB Odds – Futures – Props
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pennsylvania | 17% | 83% | Illinois |
See the latest College Basketball Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois Prediction — What Changes Without Mirkovic and Davis?
The tempo-free models are not as bullish as the market. KenPom projects Illinois to win 92-69, and Barttorvik lands at 91-70. Those are margins of 23 and 21 points, well short of the current number. That gap is large for a single game, even in college basketball, where big spreads are normal.
The Illinois injuries also matter more here than against FDU. Mirkovic went for 29 points and 17 rebounds against Pennsylvania in March, and Illinois won the glass 48-25 that day. Without him and Davis, Underwood leans harder on newcomers. Quentin Coleman and Ethan Brown both made their college debuts on Monday. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania returns seven of its top nine players in minutes, so it should not look like a team meeting for the first time.
The case against is easy to make. Illinois just won by 75, and the bench minutes that usually save a big underdog look like a strength for Illinois. Pennsylvania is also playing its first game and lost its top scorer. The market offers little help, either. The spread opened at 29.5 and moved a point toward Illinois while 83% of spread bets landed there. That is movement with the public, so it adds no sharp confirmation. Still, the move hands the underdog an extra point at a fair price, and the edge rates as a lean rather than a strong play.
The Pick: Pennsylvania +30.5 (-110)
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois Prediction — What Does a Four-Point Climb in the Total Say?
The total opened at 165.5 and now sits at 169.5. Both model projections add up to 161 points, so the number has drifted well above where the tempo-free ratings sit. Our read is that the 120-point opener and the 51 three-point attempts are doing a lot of work in that move. A blowout of an overmatched FDU team is a thin base for pricing a game against the Ivy favorite.
The prop board points the same way. The market on whether both teams reach 70 points is priced close to even, with No at -125. That suggests books see Pennsylvania’s scoring right around 70, which fits the model projections. Both projections land on a final in the low 160s, comfortably below this number.
Be clear about the risk, though. The market moved against this read, and that is a warning sign rather than something to ignore. Illinois launches threes at a very high volume, and a hot shooting night clears this total on its own. This play also rests on the same input as the first one: an Illinois rotation without two regulars. If that rotation holds up better than expected, both plays are exposed together. The edge is thin, and we say so plainly.
The Pick: Under 169.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Pennsylvania vs. Illinois
Illinois should win this game comfortably, and nothing here argues otherwise. The question is margin. With a key big man out, a senior wing out, and two models projecting a gap in the low 20s, 30.5 points asks a lot of an early-season rotation. Pennsylvania is also a better team than the March final score suggests. For another early Big Ten test on the board, see our Purdue vs. Gonzaga prediction.
We like Pennsylvania +30.5 (-110) because both tempo-free models project a margin well inside the number while Illinois is missing two regulars. We also like Under 169.5 (-110) because the total climbed four points above where the model projections sit after one blowout.
NCAAB Pennsylvania vs. Illinois FAQ: November 5, 2026
What time does the Pennsylvania vs. Illinois game start?
Pennsylvania vs. Illinois tips off at 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. That is 7:30 PM local time in Champaign. It is the second game of Illinois’ season-opening homestand and the first game of the season for Pennsylvania.
What channel is the Pennsylvania vs. Illinois game on?
The game airs nationally on FS1. Viewers with a cable, satellite or live TV streaming package that carries FS1 can watch the broadcast live. The game is also available to stream on FOX One for subscribers.
Where are Pennsylvania and Illinois playing?
Pennsylvania and Illinois play at State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois. It is a true home game for Illinois, which also opened its season in the same building on Monday with a 120-45 win over FDU.
Who won the last meeting between Pennsylvania and Illinois?
Illinois won the last meeting 105-70 in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on March 19 in Greenville, South Carolina. Illinois has won all seven meetings in the series, and Thursday is the first matchup between the schools in Champaign since 1950.
Is David Mirkovic playing for Illinois against Pennsylvania?
No. David Mirkovic is out for Illinois after an emergency appendectomy, which followed an offseason foot surgery. Brad Underwood has not given a timeline for his return. Senior wing Jake Davis is also out indefinitely after shoulder surgery.
What conference are Pennsylvania and Illinois in?
Pennsylvania plays in the Ivy League, and Illinois plays in the Big Ten, so this is a non-conference game. Pennsylvania was picked to win the Ivy League in the preseason media poll, while Illinois finished second in the Big Ten last season.