Our Cal Poly vs Arizona prediction comes from a home opener with an unusual edge to it. Arizona returns to Tucson after losing on opening night for the first time since 2006, and Cal Poly arrives fresh off a comfortable win over a Division II opponent. Arizona is a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 173.0, a classic early-season buy-game number. That leaves two questions worth handicapping: how much margin Arizona can build, and how fast this game will actually be played. We break down both before landing on two picks.
Cal Poly vs. Arizona — Game Info
| Where | McKale Center, Tucson Arizona |
| When | November 5 – 10:30 PM ET |
| TV | truTV |
Cal Poly vs. Arizona Betting Preview
Arizona entered the season No. 5 in the AP Top 25 and No. 4 in the Coaches Poll, and it was picked to win the Big 12. The opener did not go to plan. UCLA beat Arizona 84-75 in Las Vegas despite a career-high 38 points from Ivan Kharchenkov. Kharchenkov also grabbed 10 rebounds. However, the supporting cast struggled. Freshman guard Caleb Holt went 2-of-7 from the floor and missed all four of his threes.
Availability matters here. Graduate forward RJ Godfrey, a Clemson transfer, remains ineligible after his bid for an extra season was denied. That shortens a frontcourt built around 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas, the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year. Tommy Lloyd is also still sorting out his guard rotation. North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon scored 18 against UCLA, and Washington transfer JJ Mandaquit gives Arizona another ball handler.
Cal Poly is a Big West program under head coach Mike DeGeorge, so this is a non-conference game. Cal Poly opened with a 78-62 win over Cal State San Marcos on Monday. Hamad Mousa is the headliner. He led the Big West at 20.4 points per game last season and shot better than 37% from three. Cayden Ward gives Cal Poly a capable second scorer and rebounder on the wing. Cal Poly averaged 82.1 points per game and made 78.7% of its free throws, a program record.
Style is the other key. Local beat coverage describes Cal Poly as one of the fastest teams in the country and a heavy three-point shooting outfit. That same report also flags Cal Poly as weak at protecting the rim. Meanwhile, Barttorvik projects Arizona as a top-25 tempo team with an elite defense. That combination tilts toward an Arizona blowout on paper. Still, the price on that blowout already sits near 30 points.
Cal Poly vs. Arizona Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly | +30.5 (-105) | +4500 | O 173.0 (-110) |
| Arizona | -30.5 (-115) | -100000 | U 173.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAB Odds – Futures – Props
Cal Poly vs. Arizona Prediction — How Deep Can Arizona Go Without RJ Godfrey?
The case for the underdog starts with the number itself. Barttorvik’s projection makes Arizona a 29.4-point favorite with a 99-70 final. That sits about a point short of the current spread. In a game this lopsided, a single point is not a large gap. However, the market agrees the number is fair. The spread opened at 30.5 and has not budged, even as the Cal Poly moneyline drifted from +3500 out to +4500. Nobody is pushing the spread toward a bigger Arizona margin.
Rotation is the second factor. With Godfrey out, Arizona is leaning harder on freshmen and newcomers. Lloyd will have every reason to empty the bench once this one is decided, especially with tougher non-conference tests coming soon after. A big lead built by the starters tends to shrink when the deep reserves take over. Cal Poly’s style also helps the underdog. A team that hunts threes at volume can string together a late run against a lineup still learning to play together. Mousa’s free-throw shooting gives Cal Poly another way to chip at the margin.
Now the case against. Arizona is coming off a loss and playing its first home game, so motivation will be high. Cal Poly reportedly turned the ball over 25 times against a Division II opponent. That kind of carelessness against Arizona’s length could turn into a string of easy transition baskets. Krivas also gives Arizona a huge rim protector, and Cal Poly has struggled to defend inside. The edge here is thin, and the break-even at this price is about 51.2%. It is a lean built on a modest projection gap and a backdoor-friendly script, not a strong conviction.
The Pick: Cal Poly +30.5 (-105)
Cal Poly vs. Arizona Prediction — What Does a Rare Opening-Night Loss Do to the Tempo in Tucson?
Pace is usually a totals angle first in college basketball, and this matchup features two teams that like to run. That is exactly why the total is posted at 173.0. Even so, the projection again lands below the market. The same 99-70 Barttorvik forecast adds up to 169 points. In addition, the total opened at 172.5 and ticked up half a point, so the current number is slightly kinder to an Under than the opener was. Arizona’s opener against UCLA finished with 159 combined points, though that came against a far better defense. There is a game-script argument too. Once a margin reaches 30 points, late possessions often slow to a walk as reserves run half-court sets. That can drag the final pace below what either team’s season tempo suggests.
The risk is obvious. Cal Poly’s pace and shot volume can push any game into the 170s, and blowouts can turn into track meets once the benches clear. This pick also leans on the same projection as the spread play, so the two are not independent. If Arizona’s scoring runs hot, both picks are in trouble together. Treat this as a lean at a fair price rather than a strong play.
The Pick: Under 173.0 (-110)
Our Final Word on Cal Poly vs. Arizona
Arizona should win this game easily, and nothing in the matchup suggests otherwise. The betting question is about margin and pace, and both markets look priced a little aggressively. Arizona’s depth is thinner than usual, and its newcomers are still finding roles. Cal Poly brings a proven scorer and a style that can keep the scoreboard moving late. Neither edge is large, so size these plays modestly. For another big-favorite spot on the same slate, see our Pennsylvania vs. Illinois prediction, and compare how the market handled a similar buy game in our Manhattan vs. Kentucky prediction.
Cal Poly +30.5 (-105) is our top play because the spread sits about a point above the Barttorvik projection while Arizona plays without RJ Godfrey. The Under 173.0 (-110) is our second play because the same projection points to roughly 169 points, below a total that has already climbed off its opener.
NCAAB Cal Poly vs. Arizona FAQ: November 5, 2026
What time does the Cal Poly vs. Arizona game start?
Cal Poly and Arizona tip off at 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. That is 8:30 PM local time in Tucson, since Arizona does not observe daylight saving time. The game is Arizona’s home opener after it began the season with a neutral-site game in Las Vegas.
What channel is the Cal Poly vs. Arizona game on?
The Cal Poly vs. Arizona game airs nationally on truTV. Viewers with a cable, satellite or live TV streaming package that carries truTV can watch the full broadcast from tip-off at 10:30 PM ET. Arizona’s radio network also carries the game on 1290 AM in the Tucson area.
How can I stream the Cal Poly vs. Arizona game?
You can stream the Cal Poly vs. Arizona game on HBO Max, which carries the truTV broadcast. A live TV streaming service that includes truTV will also show the game. Coverage begins at 10:30 PM ET on Thursday night.
Where are Cal Poly and Arizona playing?
Cal Poly and Arizona play at McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona, the home arena for the Arizona program. This is Arizona’s first home game of the season. For Cal Poly, it is the first stop on a four-game road trip that continues at Grand Canyon, Idaho and Montana State.
Is Cal Poly or Arizona ranked?
Arizona is ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25 and No. 4 in the Coaches Poll. Cal Poly is unranked. Arizona carries those preseason rankings into this game, since the first regular-season polls have not yet been released after opening week.
What conference are Cal Poly and Arizona in?
Cal Poly plays in the Big West Conference, while Arizona is in the Big 12 Conference, so this is a non-conference game. Arizona is in its third season as a Big 12 member and was picked to win the league this year.