Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Prediction
The top-seeded Denver Nuggets travel to Miami to take on the #8-seed Heat on ABC Wednesday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals.
Can the Heat cover the 2.5-point spread as home underdogs?
The series is tied 1-1.
The Denver Nuggets went 53-29 in the regular season. They are 13-4 in the playoffs this season. The Nuggets are 54-44-1 ATS on the year.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They’re 14-8 in the play-in and playoffs this season. The Heat are 45-56-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
517 Denver Nuggets (-2.5) at 518 Miami Heat (+2.5); O/U 214.5
8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Nuggets vs. Heat Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 71% of public bettors are currently backing the Nuggets -2.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Denver Nuggets DFS Spin
Denver center Nikola Jokic poured in 41 points on 16 of 28 shooting in the Nuggets’ 111-108 loss to Miami on Sunday night. It seemed that the Miami defense was content to let Jokic try to score as the Serbian big man only had 4 assists in Game 2. His DFS value will increase if he looks to score again in Game 3.
Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon only had 12 points in Game 2 but he did shoot an excellent 5 of 7 from the field and 2 of 2 from long range in his team’s home loss. If Jokic and other Nuggets players look to pass more, Gordon could be the main beneficiary and his DFS value would be boosted as a result.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guard Tyler Herro has officially been ruled out for Wednesday’s Game 3 against Denver. Herro had been targeting Game 3 for a return, but the broken hand he suffered in the first round of the playoffs will keep him out at least one more game. Herro averaged 20.1 points per game for the Heat during the regular season.
Heat point guard Gabe Vincent was terrific in his club’s win over the Nuggets in Game 2 on Sunday night. In that game, Vincent scored a team-high 23 points while shooting 8 of 12 from the field and 4 of 6 from the three-point line. For the playoffs, Gabe Vincent is third on the Heat in scoring with 13.9 points per game and tied for third on the club in assists with 3.9 per game. He could be a cost-effective option at point guard in most DFS formats on Wednesday.
Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an outright win.
Miami is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
The over is 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 home games.
Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Prediction
The Heat have been good at home against subpar road teams. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Miami has also been good at keeping the momentum rolling after covering the spread as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Erik Spoelstra has gotten his club to tighten the screws defensively after they give up triple digits as Miami is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. And finally, Miami has been good against the number in the NBA Finals. The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Finals games. I’ll fade the public and take the Heat and the points at home on Wednesday night.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MIAMI HEAT +2.5