The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday at Citizens Bank Park with the moneyline sitting close to a coin flip. New York is a slim favorite at -117, yet the Yankees arrive without two of their biggest bats and hand the ball to left-hander Ryan Weathers. The Phillies had not named a starter as of publication, which shapes how much of this game can be read from the mound. Our lean points toward the home side holding a cushion and a run environment that stays contained.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| When | Saturday, July 25, 2026 — 6:05 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia and YES Network |
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Pitching sets the tone here, and only one side is settled. The Yankees turn to Weathers, who carries a 4.40 ERA and a 3-7 record. That ERA undersells his stuff. The left-hander misses bats at a strong clip, but his outings swing from sharp to short, and the walk-free gems sit alongside early exits. New York already banked Friday’s opener 1-0, so its bullpen enters Saturday in reasonable shape. Philadelphia, meanwhile, had not confirmed a starter when this line was posted. That is a genuine caveat. The primary game-shaping factor in baseball is the mound matchup, and half of it is still open.
The standings frame the stakes. The Yankees sit at 58-45 and the Phillies at 56-48, with both clubs chasing inside their divisions. New York’s lineup is the story, though. Aaron Judge has not played since May 31 with a rib injury, and Giancarlo Stanton remains out with a calf problem. That is a large chunk of thump missing from the middle of the order. Philadelphia has its own concerns in a bullpen thinned by injuries, but Alec Bohm has supplied recent power and the home lineup projects as the steadier group on paper. You can review the full MLB probable pitchers as Philadelphia’s choice firms up.
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+140) | -117 | U 8.5 (-105) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-165) | -103 | O 8.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 48% | 52% | Phillies |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction — Is The Philadelphia Run Line Cushion Worth The Cost?
Start with the shape of the game. The moneyline sits near even money, which tells you the market expects a tight contest rather than a rout. That matters for the run line. Roughly one in four MLB games is decided by a single run, and a close projection pushes that likelihood higher. The Phillies are at home, so they would bat in the ninth only if trailing or tied, which keeps late walk-off wins landing by one run rather than two.
The bigger point is the missing offense on the other side. Without Judge and Stanton, the Yankees have a harder path to the multi-run cushion that a favorite needs to win by two or more. A depleted lineup can still win a close game, but it blows fewer teams out. The market backs the read, too. The Yankees opened at -119 on the moneyline and drifted to -117 even though most moneyline tickets sit on New York. That is mild reverse line movement toward Philadelphia, a small signal that sharper money leans to the home side.
The case against is real. Weathers can carry a game on his own when his command is on, and if Philadelphia opens with a soft bullpen arm, New York could push across enough runs to win by two anyway. That is the honest counter. Still, the home cushion, the tight projection, and the market drift line up on the same side, and the price on the number reflects a high-probability outcome rather than a long shot.
The Pick: Phillies Run Line +1.5 (-165)
Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction — Can New York Push This Game Over The Total??
The total is the second angle, and it leans on the same core fact. The Yankees lineup is short two middle-of-the-order threats, which trims the top end of the run environment. The number opened at 8.5 and has not moved, a modest figure for a park that generally rewards hitters. When a total stays put in a hitter’s yard, it usually means the book already accounts for something, and the gutted Yankees offense is the obvious reason. A close, lower-scoring projection fits a tight moneyline.
The other side deserves a fair hearing. Citizens Bank Park plays as a hitter-friendly venue, Philadelphia’s bullpen is banged up and can leak late runs, and Weathers surrenders hard contact when he misses his spots. Any of those could tip a 4-3 game into a 6-5 game and cash the over. The read is a lean, not a lock, but the run-suppressing effect of the missing Yankees bats is the cleaner, better-supported input.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor is the unnamed Philadelphia starter. If the Phillies hand the ball to a front-line arm, both of these leans strengthen, since a strong home starter caps New York’s shorthanded lineup and keeps the game tight. If they piece it together with bullpen innings, the over case gains weight and the run-line edge narrows. Watch how Weathers navigates the first two innings as well. His outings often tilt early, and a clean start would give the Phillies a reason to grind rather than chase. Late-inning bullpen fatigue on the Philadelphia side is the other thing to track for anyone holding the under.
To recap the card: the two plays are Phillies Run Line +1.5 (-165) and Under 8.5 (-105). Both rest on the same read of a close, contained game shaped by a Yankees lineup missing Judge and Stanton. If you want more MLB angles for the slate, see our latest MLB predictions.
MLB Yankees vs. Phillies FAQ: Saturday July 25, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Phillies game start?
First pitch is set for 6:05 PM ET on Saturday, July 25, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. It is the middle game of a three-game weekend series between the two clubs.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Phillies game on?
The game airs regionally on NBC Sports Philadelphia in the Phillies market and on the YES Network in the Yankees market. Coverage is split by region, so the available broadcast depends on your local territory.
Where are the Yankees and Phillies playing today?
The teams play at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the Phillies’ home ballpark. Philadelphia hosts all three games of this weekend series, so the Yankees are the visiting club for the Saturday matchup.
Who is pitching for the Yankees today?
Left-hander Ryan Weathers is the probable starter for the Yankees. He carries a 4.40 ERA and a 3-7 record into the outing. Philadelphia had not announced its Saturday starter as of publication.
Is Aaron Judge playing tonight?
No. Aaron Judge remains sidelined with a rib injury and has not played since May 31, so he is not in the Yankees lineup for this game. Giancarlo Stanton is also out with a calf injury.