The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet again barely a week after splitting time in the Bronx, and this time the rematch lands at Progressive Field.
The pitching matchup carries the marquee. Will Warren brings a 3.22 ERA and a quietly elite road profile, while Gavin Williams counters as one of the American League's hottest arms.
The market sees a near coin flip, with Cleveland a slim home favorite. Our headline lean sides with the Yankees at a near-even price, and we like the total trending lower. Here is the full breakdown before first pitch.
Last Updated: Monday, June 8, 2026
NEW YORK YANKEES VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| When | Monday, June 8 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | FS1 / YES Network |
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Game Preview
The starting pitching sets the tone here, and both arms have pitched like front-line options. Will Warren takes the ball for New York with a 7-1 record and a 3.22 ERA across his first 13 turns. He has paired a 29.8% strikeout rate with a trimmed 6.1% walk rate. The road version of Warren stands out most. He owns a 2.25 ERA away from Yankee Stadium, well below his 3.96 home mark. His last start fit the pattern, as he spun six scoreless innings with five strikeouts against the Athletics.
Cleveland answers with Gavin Williams, who has been every bit as sharp. The right-hander is 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, and he has won four straight decisions. His most recent outing was a gem. Williams scattered four hits over eight scoreless innings against the Phillies, striking out 11 without a walk. The one caveat is the long ball, since he has been homer-prone during this stretch. Still, his command has been excellent, and he keeps Cleveland in nearly every start.
The standings frame the stakes. New York sits at 38-26 and has been steady on the road at 19-14. Cleveland enters at 37-30 and holds a 17-14 record at home. These teams just met last week in the Bronx, where the Guardians took two of three. Cleveland won 9-4 and 5-4 before the Yankees salvaged the finale 2-1. Both clubs have hovered near .500 over their recent stretch, so this rematch carries real division-race weight for two contenders.
NEW YORK YANKEES VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS ODDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
| NEW YORK YANKEES | -1.5 (+180) | -103 | U 7.5 (-105) |
| CLEVELAND GUARDIANS | +1.5 (-220) | -117 | O 7.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 8, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds - Futures - Props
NEW YORK YANKEES VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS WHO IS THE PUBLIC BETTING? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NEW YORK YANKEES | 48% | 52% | CLEVELAND GUARDIANS |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Moneyline Prediction — Yankees ML
This game prices as close to a coin flip as the board offers. Cleveland is a slim home favorite at -117, while New York sits at -103. The run line is the giveaway. The Yankees pay +180 to win by two or more, which tells you the market expects a tight, low-scoring contest. In that setting, the moneyline is the cleaner play than laying -1.5. We side with New York straight up.
The Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (-103)
The case starts with Warren and the price. Getting the team with the better record at a near-even number feels like value, especially with Warren's 2.25 road ERA in play. The Yankees lineup also carries more thump top to bottom. Meanwhile, the ML even drifted slightly in New York's favor from its open, a small nod from the market. The opening number had the Yankees at -106, so this is a marginally better price now.
The case against is real, though. Williams has been dominant, and his 11-strikeout shutout effort last time out shows his ceiling. Cleveland also just won two of three head-to-head, and home-field comfort matters for a club that defends and runs the bases well. If Williams limits the Yankees' damage early, the Guardians bullpen can shorten the game. This is a lean, not a heavy conviction play, and the near-even price reflects that uncertainty.
Yankees vs Guardians Total Pick
The total opened at 8.0 and has been bet down to 7.5, a clear under-ward move. That direction makes sense with two starters pitching at this level. Warren misses bats and limits walks, while Williams just posted eight scoreless frames. Both arms project to keep the early innings quiet. We lean to the lower side.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
The under case rests on the matchup of arms and the market's own signal. When a total drops a half-run with this pitching on the mound, the message is consistent. The risk is the home run. Williams has been homer-prone lately, and the Yankees can change a game with one swing. Warren's home-run tendencies have also surfaced at times. If either starter leaves a pitch up, the number can clear quickly. On balance, though, the strikeout upside on both sides tilts us under.
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor in this one is Warren on the road. His away splits have been the difference between a good season and a quietly excellent one, and Progressive Field is his kind of stage. If he carries that form, the Yankees can win a tight game and keep the total in check at the same time. Watch the early innings closely, since both bullpens are rested enough to protect a lead late.
The public betting split is nearly even, with the Guardians drawing 52% of run-line tickets to the Yankees' 48%. That balance offers no strong fade signal in either direction.
To recap our picks for Yankees at Guardians: New York Yankees Moneyline (-103) and Under 7.5 (-105). Both lean on the same theme, a tight, pitching-led game between two contenders.
MLB Yankees Prediction FAQ
What time does the Yankees vs. Guardians game start?
First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, June 8, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Guardians game on?
The game is scheduled to air on FS1 and the YES Network.
Who is pitching for the Yankees against the Guardians?
Right-hander Will Warren is the probable starter for New York. He enters with a 7-1 record and a 3.22 ERA.
Who is favored in the Yankees vs. Guardians game?
The game is close to a pick'em. Cleveland is a slight home favorite at -117 on the moneyline, with New York at -103.
Who won the last meeting between the Yankees and Guardians?
The Yankees won the most recent meeting 2-1 on June 4. Cleveland still took two of three games in that series.