Thursday’s MLB slate presents a few value spots due to who will be taking the hill for their respective teams. One game is an American League showdown, and the other is an interleague clash taking place on MLB Network.
Can 25-year-old Guardians lefty Parker Messick pitch well enough to earn his third win of the season on Thursday? Will Mariners starter Luis Castillo log a quality start in an interleague matchup with the Padres?
I’ll make picks for both games below. Read on for our Thursday MLB Best Bets April 16 article.
If you’re curious to see which side the public is backing in these games and every MLB game on Thursday, head over to our MLB public betting chart page.
If you’d like to check out the money line, run line, and total odds for Thursday’s MLB slate, click through to our MLB Betting odds page.
MLB Best Bets: Guardians -122 vs. Orioles
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick (CLE) vs. Shane Baz (BAL)
The Cleveland Guardians are primed to secure an outright money line victory against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night. The Guardians have some strong situational trends on their side and should have the pitching edge.
Cleveland is exceptionally resilient, boasting a 7-1 straight-up record following a loss, and they protect their turf well at 4-2 straight up as the home team this season. Furthermore, the Guardians hold a recent edge, going 3-1 straight up in their last 4 matchups against Baltimore.
The decisive factor, however, is Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick. Through 3 starts this year, Messick is an undefeated 2-0 with a microscopic 0.51 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a stellar 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, making Cleveland a highly valuable home favorite.
Betting Pick: Cleveland Guardians -122
MLB Best Bets: Mariners -120 at Padres
Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. Walker Buehler (SD)
The Seattle Mariners will capture an outright money line victory as road favorites against the San Diego Padres on Thursday. Seattle brings undeniable momentum into this matchup. They boast a 4-2 straight-up record over their last 6 games overall.
Furthermore, the Mariners dominate this specific matchup, sitting at 6-3 straight up in their last 9 games against San Diego. The Padres will likely face an uphill battle on the mound on Thursday.
San Diego starting pitcher Walker Buehler struggled last season, posting a 4.93 ERA across 26 appearances. His woes continue this year, as he holds a 4.97 ERA through his first 3 starts with the Padres. These pitching struggles and Seattle’s consistent recent success make the Mariners the smart money line play.
Betting Pick: Seattle Mariners -120
Thursday MLB Best Bets April 16
- Cleveland Guardians -122
- Seattle Mariners -120