2026 Memorial Tournament Predictions and Picks

2026 Memorial Tournament Predictions & Picks 2026 Memorial Tournament Predictions & Picks
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Scottie Scheffler arrives at Muirfield Village this week chasing history. The world No. 1 has won the Memorial Tournament in each of the last two years. A third straight title would match a feat only Tiger Woods has managed at Jack Nicklaus's event. The 51st Memorial tees off Thursday, June 4, and Scheffler opens as a heavy favorite at +325. For the full market, see our Memorial Tournament odds preview. Our headline pick backs Scheffler to complete the three-peat, but the better value sits further down the board. Below we break down the field, the course, and our picks.

Last Updated: Thursday, June 4, 2026

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH

WhereMuirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, OH
WhenThursday, June 4 – First tee 7:45 AM ET
TVGolf Channel (CBS on the weekend)

Pre-Tournament Report

The Memorial is a Signature Event, and the field reflects it. Just 72 players tee it up for a $20 million purse, with $4 million going to the winner. Nearly every top-ranked PGA Tour member is here. Scheffler headlines a group that includes Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas. The Signature format excludes LIV Golf members, so the board tops out at the elite PGA Tour names.

The storylines run deep. McIlroy is still hunting his first Muirfield Village win. Aberg comes in red-hot with three victories already in 2026. Young has broken through with two wins this season. Russell Henley arrives fresh off a playoff victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge. It is one of the year's strongest non-major fields.

Muirfield Village is a demanding second-shot golf course. The par-72 layout stretches to 7,573 yards and rewards precise approach play above raw distance. Firm, fast greens and thick rough punish wayward driving and loose iron shots. As a result, winning totals here tend to stay modest, and elite ball-strikers rise to the top. Scheffler is the two-time defending champion, and only Tiger Woods has ever won the Memorial in three straight years. Recent champions have skewed heavily toward the game's best iron players.

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT – TOP ODDS TO WIN

NameOdds
Scottie Scheffler+325
Rory McIlroy+1200
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Cameron Young+1600
Xander Schauffele+2000
Matt Fitzpatrick+2200
Russell Henley+2200
Si Woo Kim+2200
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Justin Thomas+3000

Odds accurate as of Wednesday, June 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds - Props

Top Pick to Win — Scottie Scheffler

The Pick: Scottie Scheffler to win (+325)

The case for Scheffler starts with his record at this course. He has won the last two Memorials, and his tee-to-green game fits Muirfield Village as well as any player fits any venue. He is also the most consistent golfer on the planet right now. Through the early 2026 season, he has not finished outside the top 25 in a single start. A venue that rewards ball-striking and punishes mistakes fits his game perfectly.

The argument against is the price. At +325, Scheffler carries an implied probability of roughly 23.5 percent, which is steep in a 72-man field. There is also a closing question. He has won just once in 2026, at The American Express, despite a stack of high finishes. He posted three straight runner-up results earlier this year at the Masters, the RBC Heritage, and the Cadillac Championship. Backing him at this number means trusting that the best player in the world finally converts another 54-hole lead rather than settling for second again.

On balance, the course history is hard to ignore. Scheffler is the right favorite, even if the price leaves little margin for error.

Value Play — Russell Henley

The Pick: Russell Henley to win (+2200)

Henley is playing the best golf of his career at the right time. In May he won the Charles Schwab Challenge for his sixth PGA Tour title, birdieing the final four holes before closing it out in a playoff. He has been gaining strokes on approach and with the putter, the exact combination Muirfield Village demands. He also finished fifth here last year, so the venue fit is proven rather than projected.

The counterpoint is the quick turnaround. Following an emotional win with another victory is difficult, and Muirfield is a grinding test that can wear down a tired player. Henley is also not a long hitter, a cost on the longer par 4s. Still, at +2200 the price pays for that risk. He offers genuine course history and current form at a number more than six times Scheffler's, which makes him our preferred value outright.

Tournament Outlook — Picks and Final Thoughts

The market offers more than outright tickets this week. TheSpread.com lists group betting, top-nationality props, a first-round leader market, and more. Two angles stand out.

Cameron Young as Top American Player (+900) is a sensible way to fade the favorite. Scheffler is the +200 chalk in that market, but Young brings two wins in 2026 and a tie for third at the Masters. If the champion stumbles, Young is the best-priced American to finish on top. The risk is obvious: Scheffler usually wins these domestic battles, so this is a swing at the field behind him.

Justin Thomas to win Group D (+250) is the cleaner secondary play. Thomas is clearly the strongest name in a group alongside Alex Smalley, Adam Scott, Maverick McNealy, and Rickie Fowler. His form has been streaky, which is the case against, but the talent gap in this small pool is real. Course strategy hinges on the reachable par 5s and firm greens, where accurate iron play wins out.

To recap our Memorial card: Scottie Scheffler to win (+325) as the top pick, Russell Henley to win (+2200) as the value play, Cameron Young as Top American Player (+900), and Justin Thomas to win Group D (+250). Each pick carries real risk but a defensible angle at Muirfield Village.

2026 Memorial Tournament Betting FAQ

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament?

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +325 via TheSpread.com. The world No. 1 is the two-time defending champion and is chasing a third straight Memorial title.

When does the 2026 Memorial Tournament start?

The first round is Thursday, June 4, 2026, at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. The opening tee times begin at 7:45 AM ET.

What channel is the 2026 Memorial Tournament on?

Golf Channel carries the early-round television coverage on Thursday and Friday from 2 to 6 PM ET. CBS takes over for the weekend afternoon coverage on Saturday and Sunday.

Who won the Memorial Tournament last year?

Scottie Scheffler won the Memorial Tournament last year. It was his second straight title at Muirfield Village, joining Tiger Woods as the only repeat winners of the event.

What is the par and yardage at Muirfield Village?

Muirfield Village Golf Club plays as a par 72 measuring 7,573 yards. It is a demanding second-shot course that rewards accurate approach play.

What is the purse for the 2026 Memorial Tournament?

The 2026 Memorial Tournament has a $20 million purse. The winner earns $4 million from the Signature Event prize pool.

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