Last Updated on April 20, 2016 6:42 pm by Anthony Rome
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction
Two teams currently headed in opposite directions will meet at Fenway Park when the Red Sox host the Rays at 7:10PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Rays are a small -106 money line favorite versus the host Red Sox, who have odds of -102 to pull off the victory tonight. With Chris Archer set to face Rick Porcello in the pitching matchup, the over/under is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Bet Tonight’s Rays vs. Red Sox Game
Archer has been a disaster this season, posting an 0-3 record to go along with an ugly 5.87 ERA and a 5.87 FIP. But two stats stand out: He owns a 2.81 xFIP and his BABIP is currently .436. Those two statistics indicate that he’s been unlucky and at least a couple of the five home runs that he’s allowed to date should not have been hit out of the ballpark. The problem is, his HR/FB rate is 41.7% and he’s pitching in Fenway tonight so his luck might not improve.
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It’s been a similar situation for Porcello, who owns a 5.11 ERA and a 5.82 FIP, but his xFIP is 2.83. He too is allowing a staggering 40.0% HR/FB but he’s striking out a ton of batters (10.95 K/9) and he’s limiting the walks (1.46). Unlike Archer, however, Porcello has had a ton of luck with balls in ball (.185) so perhaps his ERA and FIP numbers aren’t going anywhere either.
OUR PREDICTION: The HR/FB rates are just too high to ignore and while they will come down for both pitchers, it might not happen tonight in Boston. The over has cashed in four of Archer’s last five games versus the Red Sox and is 4-1 in his last five road starts. The over is also 23-11-1 in Boston’s last 35 games coming off a loss and is 10-4-1 in the team’s last 15 home games versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .400.
WEDNESDAY MLB PREDICTION: RAYS/RED SOX OVER 8.5
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