The Philadelphia Phillies close out their regular-season visit to Citi Field on Sunday afternoon, and the market has installed them as a clear road favorite. Cristopher Sánchez takes the ball against Mets rookie right-hander Jonah Tong at 1:10 p.m. ET. Philadelphia sits at -177 on the moneyline with the total posted at 8. However, the Phillies have scored exactly three runs in each of the last three games, and nearly 80 percent of run-line tickets are still on their side. That gap between the price and the recent evidence is where our headline play comes from.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York |
| When | Sunday, September 20 – 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | WPIX / NBC Sports Philadelphia |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Preview
Sánchez has been Philadelphia’s steadiest starter all year. He carries a 17-6 record with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 215 strikeouts across 193.2 innings. His last three starts tell a different story. He allowed five earned runs over 6.1 innings at Washington on September 15, six earned in six innings against Houston on September 9, and three earned in six innings against Atlanta on September 4. That is 14 earned runs in 18.1 innings.
Tong is the opposite profile. The rookie right-hander has thrown just 21 innings in the majors this season across five appearances, with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 20 strikeouts. His most recent outing was his best. Tong blanked Baltimore over six innings on September 14 on four hits and one walk. Before that, he allowed four earned runs in five innings at Miami. Still, that workload is light enough that New York is unlikely to push him deep.
The stakes differ sharply. Philadelphia arrives at 85-70, second in the NL East and playing for postseason seeding. New York sits at 71-84 and is out of contention. Meanwhile, the Mets have controlled this series. The Phillies took the opener 3-0 behind seven shutout innings from Aaron Nola. New York answered 6-3 on Friday, then 10-3 on Saturday with nine unanswered runs. For more context, see Saturday’s Phillies vs. Mets prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -1.5 (+100) | -177 | U 8 (-110) |
| Mets | +1.5 (-120) | +145 | O 8 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 20, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Phillies | 79% | 21% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction — Is the Road Favorite Priced Too Short?
Start with the market. Philadelphia opened at -170 on the moneyline and has been bid up to -177. On the run line, the Phillies moved from +105 to +100. Both moves run in the same direction as the public money, which sits at 79 percent on the Philadelphia run line. That is expected behavior, not a signal. There is no reverse line movement here, so the market gives the favorite no independent confirmation beyond recreational tickets.
The pricing structure is the more interesting part. New York is +145 on the moneyline but only -120 with a 1.5-run cushion. That is a modest premium for insurance in a game the market expects to be tight, with the total set at just 8. Roughly one in four major league games ends by a single run. Add Philadelphia’s exactly three runs in each of the last three games, and a two-run road win looks like a real ask rather than a formality.
In contrast, the case for the favorite is easy to state. Sánchez owns the better body of work, the Phillies carry the deeper lineup, and road favorites are structurally better candidates to win by two because they always bat in the ninth. If he recovers his command against a pitcher with 21 major league innings, the cushion never matters. The counter is that he has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts, and the Mets have scored 16 runs in two days.
The Pick: Mets Run Line +1.5 (-120)
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction — Who Covers the Middle Innings?
The total has not budged. It opened at 8 with -110 on each side and still sits there. A frozen number usually means the market is comfortable. The bullpen math argues for a second look. Tong has thrown 21 innings all season, so five or six is a realistic ceiling. That hands three to four innings to a relief group that used five arms on Saturday. Dedniel Núñez has worked back-to-back days, and Tobias Myers has appeared twice in three days.
Philadelphia’s relief corps is not fresh either. Orion Kerkering pitched Friday and again Saturday. José Urquidy covered 4.2 innings of bulk relief on Friday after the Phillies opened with Tim Mayza. Jhoan Duran has been idle since Thursday, so the back end is rested, but the bridge innings on both sides look thin. The last two games here produced nine and 13 combined runs. Meanwhile, the under case is straightforward: both starters carry ERAs under 3.50, Sánchez still misses bats, and Tong just delivered six scoreless. One efficient start from either side kills this number.
The Pick: Over 8 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle here stands on strong enough evidence to publish, so treat the two plays above as the full card. The thing to watch is Tong’s pitch count through four innings. If he is efficient and reaches the sixth, both positions get harder, because the New York bullpen avoids the exposure the over needs. If he labors early, the relief parade starts in the fifth and the game opens up.
Both picks are leans rather than strong plays. The market has not confirmed either one, and a sharp afternoon from Sánchez beats both at the same time. Size accordingly.
Picks recap: Mets Run Line +1.5 (-120) and Over 8 (-110).
MLB Phillies vs. Mets FAQ: Sunday September 20, 2026
What time does the Phillies vs. Mets game start?
First pitch is 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 20, 2026, at Citi Field. This is the finale of the four-game set and the last regular-season meeting between the two clubs in Queens. Both teams played a Saturday game before this Sunday afternoon closer.
What channel is the Phillies vs. Mets game on?
The game airs regionally on WPIX in the New York market and on NBC Sports Philadelphia in the Phillies territory. Both listings appear on the official probable pitchers page for the September 20 finale. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.
Who is pitching for the Mets today?
Rookie right-hander Jonah Tong starts for New York. He is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 20 strikeouts over 21 innings in 2026. His last outing came September 14, when he held Baltimore scoreless across six innings on four hits and one walk.
Where are the Phillies and Mets playing today?
The teams meet at Citi Field in Queens, New York, the Mets’ home ballpark. Sunday’s 1:10 p.m. ET start closes Philadelphia’s final regular-season trip to Flushing in 2026. New York moves on to a road series at Texas beginning September 22.
Who won the last meeting between the Phillies and Mets?
New York won the most recent meeting 10-3 on Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Citi Field. The Mets trailed 3-1 before scoring nine unanswered runs over the final four innings. Francisco Alvarez hit a three-run homer and Carson Benge went 3-for-4 with a home run.