The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet for the third game of their four-game set at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon. Philadelphia arrives at 85-69 and holds a National League wild-card spot with eight games left. New York sits at 70-84 and is playing out the string. Even so, the Mets are the home favorite at -126, and the reason stands on the mound.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York |
| When | Saturday, September 19 – 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia, SNY |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Preview
Christian Scott gets the ball for New York. The right-hander is 4-5 with a 3.76 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 127 strikeouts across 105.1 innings. He struck out seven Yankees over six innings on September 13. However, this is his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and the Mets are managing him carefully. He is no longer working on four days’ rest.
Andrew Painter counters for Philadelphia. His season line is unflattering at 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 115.1 innings. Still, the recent work tells a kinder story. He threw seven shutout innings at Arizona on September 2, then held Atlanta to one earned run across five frames on September 13. In between, Houston tagged him for five earned runs on 10 hits.
Philadelphia’s larger problem sits behind Painter. Jesús Luzardo is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, and reliever Jonathan Bowlan is nursing a groin strain. The Phillies covered Friday with a bullpen game, opening with Tim Mayza before waiver claim José Urquidy handled the bulk innings. Orion Kerkering then served up a three-run homer to Juan Soto, and he has allowed runs in seven of his last eight appearances. The lineup has gone quiet too, ranking 26th in OPS this month.
New York enters in better spirits after snapping a five-game skid on Friday. Philadelphia, in contrast, has lost ground in the NL East race. We flagged the same staff concerns in our September 18 Phillies vs. Mets prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | +1.5 (-200) | +106 | U 8 (-120) |
| Mets | -1.5 (+170) | -126 | O 8 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of September 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Phillies | 37% | 63% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction — Can a Patched-Up Staff Survive Queens?
The starting pitching gap is the cleanest edge on the board. Scott owns a 3.76 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, and he misses bats at a rate Painter has not matched. Painter carries a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, and his walk rate still comes and goes. Citi Field magnifies that difference. The ballpark has suppressed run scoring for several straight seasons, which rewards the pitcher who throws more strikes.
Philadelphia’s supporting cast compounds the issue. The bullpen just worked a full staff day on Friday, and the bridge to closer Jhoan Duran has been shaky for weeks. A lineup sitting 26th in September OPS also leaves little margin when a starter labors. The market has nudged the same way, with the Mets moving from -121 at the open to -126 now. Notably, the moneyline tickets are split close to even.
The counter-case is real. Painter has looked like a different arm since his July 31 recall, and a 5.54 ERA overstates his current form. Philadelphia is also chasing a playoff berth while New York has nothing left to play for. On top of that, Scott’s innings limit hands the middle of the game to a Mets bullpen that has been the weaker unit all year.
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (-126)
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction — Does the Number Still Fit the Ballpark?
Citi Field remains one of the most run-suppressing environments in the sport, and it has graded below league average for runs in each of the last three seasons. Philadelphia has scored at a bottom-third clip all month, and Scott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Thursday’s series opener also finished 3-0.
We will be honest about the pushback, because the market has moved the other way. The total opened at 7.5 with the over juiced, and it now sits at 8 with the over at even money. That is a real signal that money arrived on runs, likely on the back of two limited starters. Still, the move helps our price. The under at 8 is a better number than the opener offered.
The Pick: Under 8 (-120)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment arrives in the fifth and sixth innings. Scott is unlikely to see the order a third time, so the Mets will go to their relievers early. If Philadelphia cannot get to that group, the Phillies will need Painter to match him. He did exactly that in his most recent trip through the NL East.
Watch the Phillies’ first turn through the bullpen as well. Friday’s staff day drained several arms, and the eighth inning has been their weakest link for months. A 4:10 p.m. start after a night game also tends to produce a rearranged lineup. Both picks rest on the same core read, and we would rather say that plainly.
Picks recap: Mets Moneyline (-126) and Under 8 (-120).
MLB Phillies vs. Mets FAQ: Saturday September 19, 2026
What time does the Phillies vs. Mets game start?
First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. It is the third game of a four-game series between the two NL East clubs, and the finale follows on Sunday afternoon.
What channel is the Phillies vs. Mets game on?
Saturday’s game airs on NBC Sports Philadelphia for Phillies viewers and on SNY for Mets viewers in the New York market. Both are regional broadcasts, unlike the first two games of this series, which carried national coverage on Thursday and Friday night.
Who is pitching for the Phillies on Saturday?
Right-hander Andrew Painter starts for Philadelphia. He enters at 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA and 100 strikeouts over 115.1 innings this season. New York counters with right-hander Christian Scott, who is 4-5 with a 3.76 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 105.1 innings.
Who won the last meeting between the Phillies and Mets?
New York won the most recent meeting 6-3 on Friday, September 18, 2026, at Citi Field. Juan Soto broke the game open with a three-run homer in the sixth inning. Philadelphia had taken the series opener 3-0 on Thursday behind Aaron Nola.
Where do the Phillies and Mets stand in the NL East?
Philadelphia sits second in the NL East at 85-69 and holds a National League wild-card position with eight games remaining. New York is last in the division at 70-84 and has been eliminated from the playoff race. Atlanta leads the NL East.