The St. Louis Cardinals close their series at PNC Park on Thursday afternoon, and the marquee makes this look simple. Paul Skenes takes the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kyle Leahy answers on a workload leash that has him throwing three innings at a time. Pittsburgh sits at -162, and roughly three-quarters of the public agrees. However, the moneyline has not budged. The total has, and that move points our headline play elsewhere.
Last Updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Time & How to Watch
| Where | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| When | Thursday, September 24 — 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh and Cardinals.TV |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Start with the arms. Skenes carries a 10-11 record and a 3.91 ERA into his final home start. By his standards that is a down year. Underneath, the process is still elite: 192 strikeouts in 168 innings for a 10.29 K/9, and a 1.13 WHIP. He has publicly pointed to reduced velocity and a heavy spring workload as factors.
His recent work is uneven rather than bad. Per the Pirates probable pitchers page, he gave up five earned runs over six innings against Kansas City on September 18. Before that came seven innings and two earned runs at Chicago, then 5.1 scoreless against the Angels. The strikeouts remain; the hard contact comes in bunches.
Leahy is the more interesting variable. A 3.65 ERA and a 10-5 record look like a solid mid-rotation season, but the innings tell a different story. He has thrown 138 innings across 29 starts with 129 strikeouts and 41 walks, and his previous career high was 88. St. Louis has shortened him. His last three outings covered 3.0, 3.0 and 2.2 innings, the most recent a six-run clunker against Washington.
St. Louis enters at 77-81 and 4-6 over its last 10. Pittsburgh is 80-78 and 6-4, per the MLB standings. The series has split the difference. Jared Jones threw seven shutout innings in a 2-0 Pittsburgh win on Tuesday, covered in Tuesday’s series-opener preview. St. Louis answered 5-1 on Wednesday against a Pittsburgh bullpen game.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +1.5 (-170) | +136 | U 7 (-120) |
| Pirates | -1.5 (+145) | -162 | O 7 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of September 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cardinals | 31% | 69% | Pirates |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction — Do Two Short Staffs Decide This One?
Count the innings before you count the runs. Leahy has not finished the fourth in any of his last three turns, and the reason is structural. St. Louis needs roughly six innings of relief in a getaway day game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh gave its bullpen the whole game on Wednesday and lost 5-1. Skenes should cover six of the nine himself, so the Pirates’ exposure is smaller. Still, the arms they turn to late are the ones that worked yesterday.
The market has already leaned this way. The total opened at 6.5 with the over at -130. It now sits at 7 with the over at even money and the under taking the juice at -120. That is roughly a third of a run toward scoring, and it happened while the moneyline sat still. When a book raises a number and makes the higher side cheaper at once, it shows where the pressure came from.
The case against is real. This series has produced two runs and six runs. Neither offense has been dangerous, and Skenes still misses bats at a rate that can quiet a cold lineup by himself. In contrast, seven is modest for a game where most innings come from bullpen arms or a three-inning starter.
The Pick: Over 7 (+100)
Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction — Why Has This Price Refused to Move?
Here the market read leads, because the baseball is contested. Pittsburgh opened at -162 on the moneyline. It is still -162. That happened while 77% of moneyline tickets came in on the Pirates and 69% backed them on the run line. Heavy public money with a frozen number is one of the quieter signals in baseball. It often means the book is content to hold the price because the larger money sits elsewhere.
The honest counter is that the freeze is close to the whole case. On pure baseball, a three-inning starter against Skenes is a disadvantage, and St. Louis has lost six of 10. However, +136 needs to win only 42.4% of the time to break even, and the Cardinals beat these Pirates 5-1 one day ago. With a one-run finish in play, the moneyline is a cleaner vehicle than paying -170 for the +1.5 cushion. This is a market-led lean, not a conviction side.
The Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+136)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Watch the fourth inning. If Leahy is pulled after three, the Cardinals bullpen inherits six innings and the total does most of its work in the middle frames. If St. Louis stretches him into the fifth, both positions get harder. The other tell is how quickly Pittsburgh reaches for its leverage arms after Skenes.
We are not forcing a third angle onto this card. The props and alternate lines did not clear the same bar, and a manufactured bonus pick is worse than none. For more, see Wednesday’s Cardinals vs. Pirates pick.
Both plays rest on the same read. This is a bullpen game disguised as a Skenes start, and the market has begun pricing it that way on the total while leaving the side alone. Recapping the card — Over 7 (+100) is the stronger play, with the Cardinals Moneyline (+136) second.
MLB Cardinals vs. Pirates FAQ: Thursday September 24, 2026
What time does the Cardinals vs. Pirates game start?
First pitch is 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 24, 2026. It is a weekday afternoon getaway game and the finale of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The early start follows night games on Tuesday and Wednesday.
What channel is the Cardinals vs. Pirates game on?
The game airs on SportsNet Pittsburgh for Pirates viewers and on Cardinals.TV for St. Louis viewers. There is no national television window, so coverage runs through each club’s regional outlet.
Who is pitching for the Pirates today?
Right-hander Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh. He enters at 10-11 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts across 168 innings in 31 starts. His most recent outing came September 18 against Kansas City, when he allowed five earned runs over six innings with seven strikeouts.
Where are the Cardinals and Pirates playing today?
The teams meet at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh hosts all three games of this series, and Thursday’s finale closes the Pirates’ 2026 home schedule.
Who won the last meeting between the Cardinals and Pirates?
St. Louis won the most recent meeting 5-1 on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, at PNC Park. Pittsburgh used a bullpen game that day rather than a conventional starter. The Pirates took the opener 2-0 on Tuesday behind Jared Jones.