The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night with a total of 7.5 posted and a moneyline that barely separates the two clubs. Pittsburgh has not named a starter, which points to a bullpen day at PNC Park. St. Louis counters with left-hander Matthew Liberatore and his 5.36 ERA. The market has drifted one way since this number opened, and that drift lines up with how both lineups have been swinging. Our headline play comes from the run environment rather than the side.
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Time & How to Watch
| Where | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| When | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 — 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The pitching matchup sets the tone here, and it is lopsided in an unusual way. St. Louis sends Liberatore, who carries a 5-14 record, a 5.36 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP across 30 starts, with 148 strikeouts in 149.1 innings. The strikeout stuff is real. The results have not followed. Over his last seven starts he is 0-5 with a 6.06 ERA across 35.2 innings. His most recent outing was his cleanest in weeks, six innings of one-run ball against San Francisco on September 16. Before that came 4.1 innings and two earned runs against the White Sox, then 4.1 innings and five earned runs in Colorado.
Pittsburgh has not announced a starter and is expected to run a bullpen game. That sounds like a disadvantage. It has not been one. Through the second week of September the Pirates were 6-4 in bullpen games while allowing 2.6 runs per game in that format, against 4.8 runs per game in everything else. Their bullpen-game ERA sat at 2.95. Lake Bachar has been the preferred opener at 1.86, with Carmen Mlodzinski handling bulk innings at 2.59. The Cardinals have seen this look already: Pittsburgh beat them 6-2 in a bullpen game on August 29.
Rest matters just as much tonight. Jared Jones threw seven innings in Tuesday’s 2-0 shutout, and only Luke Weaver and Gregory Soto followed him. Pittsburgh’s relief corps is close to full strength on a night it needs depth. The Pirates are 80-77 on a five-game winning streak, with a first winning season since 2018 in reach. St. Louis is 76-81 and trying to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since the 1950s. Our prediction for Tuesday’s series opener has more on how this matchup set up.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -1.5 (+160) | -103 | U 7.5 (-105) |
| Pirates | +1.5 (-185) | -117 | O 7.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 23, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cardinals | 12% | 88% | Pirates |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction — Low-Scoring Affair in Pitt?
Start with the run environment, because that is where the cleanest read sits. PNC Park grades close to league average for run scoring and suppresses home runs, so extra-base damage has to be earned rather than launched. Both lineups are cold. St. Louis was held to one hit on Tuesday. Pittsburgh scraped across two runs, one on a single and one on a wild pitch. A 7.5 total respects that, but it does not fully price a rested Pittsburgh bullpen in the format where it has been stingiest.
The market agrees, quietly. The total opened at 7.5 with the over at -120 and the under at +100. It now sits at 7.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105. The number never moved, but about five cents of juice migrated to the under. That is money arriving on the low side rather than a book balancing tickets. Meanwhile the public sits at 88 percent on Pittsburgh’s run line, a lopsided split that inflates a price rather than sharpens it. Read through the movement, the under is where money has actually landed.
The case against is straightforward. Liberatore’s 1.49 WHIP means traffic, and traffic at 7.5 is how unders die in the sixth. Bullpen games also cut both ways. If the opener gets touched early, Pittsburgh is into middle relief before the lineup turns over, and 7.5 can be gone by the fifth. Still, the baseball and the market lean the same way here, and that alignment is what separates this from a coin flip.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction — Will Bucs Handle Business?
The side comes down to whether a functioning bullpen day beats a struggling left-hander at a near-even number. Pittsburgh is the better team right now by record, by momentum and by health of its pitching staff. It is home, it is rested, it has something to play for, and it faces the one St. Louis starter in this series who has been consistently hittable. At -117, the Pirates need to win about 54 percent of the time to break even. That is a reasonable ask for a club on a five-game run that already beat this opponent in this format three weeks ago.
The counter deserves real weight. The moneyline drifted from -114 to -117, tracking the 73 percent of moneyline tickets on Pittsburgh, so there is no sharp confirmation in it. The run line is more telling. St. Louis at -1.5 shortened from +165 to +160, while Pittsburgh’s +1.5 eased from -195 to -185 despite holding 88 percent of tickets. That small reverse move toward the Cardinals is a reason to back the Pirates at the flat price rather than lay more. This is a lean, not a certainty.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-117)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor is the name Pittsburgh eventually posts. An opener from the group that has handled this role all season keeps the run projection low. A short outing changes the math quickly, because the middle innings are where bullpen games leak. Watch the first turn through the St. Louis order.
Late leverage matters too. Soto worked the ninth on Tuesday and Weaver the eighth, so both are available but not unlimited. In a one-run game, those arms are the difference between a tight under and a scramble.
Both plays rest on the same read: a low-scoring night at PNC Park with the home side slightly ahead of it. That overlap is deliberate, and it means the two picks can win or lose together. Here is the full card.
- Under 7.5 (-105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-117)
MLB Cardinals vs. Pirates FAQ: Wednesday September 23, 2026
What time does the Cardinals vs. Pirates game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. It is the middle game of a three-game series at PNC Park, and the finale on Thursday moves to an afternoon start at 12:35 p.m. ET.
What channel is the Cardinals vs. Pirates game on?
The game airs locally on SportsNet Pittsburgh for the Pirates broadcast. Radio coverage in Pittsburgh runs on 93.7 The Fan. Viewers outside both clubs’ home markets will need a national out-of-market package, since this game is not carried on a national television network.
Who is pitching for the Cardinals tonight?
Left-hander Matthew Liberatore is the listed starter for St. Louis. He is 5-14 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, with 148 strikeouts in 149.1 innings across 30 starts. Pittsburgh has not announced a starter and is expected to use a bullpen game.
Where are the Cardinals and Pirates playing today?
The game is at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where the Pirates are the home team for this three-game set. It is Pittsburgh’s final home series of the 2026 regular season before the club closes on the road in Detroit.
Who won the last meeting between the Cardinals and Pirates?
Pittsburgh won 2-0 on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Jared Jones carried a perfect game into the sixth inning and finished with seven scoreless innings, one hit allowed and nine strikeouts. Ryan O’Hearn drove in the first run and Gregory Soto closed it out for his 16th save.