The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals on Saturday afternoon with nothing left to play for and one interesting pitching question to settle. Washington hands the ball to left-hander Connelly Early, who has not faced a major league hitter since June 30. New York counters with rookie right-hander Jonah Tong. The Mets are modest road favorites at -135, and the total sits at 8.5. Our headline play comes from what neither starter is likely to do.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| When | Saturday, September 26 — 12:35 PM ET |
| TV | Nationals.TV and SNY |
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Betting Preview
Start with the starters, because this one is unusual. Early has not pitched in the majors since June 30, when he was still with Boston. He dealt with elbow inflammation in July and a forearm setback in his recovery. Washington acquired him from the Red Sox in a July trade for Curtis Mead, and Saturday is his Nationals debut.
His 2026 line — 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 93 strikeouts over 91.2 innings — was built entirely in Boston before the injury. It is also the least useful number here. Early’s final rehab outing at Triple-A Rochester ran one and two-thirds innings. He returns on a managed workload, so Washington is effectively planning a bullpen game behind a short start.
Tong offers more length, but not much. The rookie right-hander carries a 4.21 ERA and a 1.325 WHIP over 25.2 innings, with 25 strikeouts against 13 walks. That is 8.8 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine. The swing-and-miss is real. The command is not. He threw six shutout innings against Baltimore on September 14, then walked four in 4.2 innings at Philadelphia on September 20.
Recent form favors the home side. Washington has won three straight and sits 7-3 across its last 10, including Friday’s 7-6 win in the opener. New York went 4-6 over its previous 10. The records agree: the Nationals are 76-84 and fourth in the NL East, while the Mets are 73-87 and assured of last place. Neither club can reach the postseason, so expect rested regulars and call-ups in both lineups.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -1.5 (+125) | -135 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Nationals | +1.5 (-145) | +113 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 48% | 52% | Nationals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction — Can Either Starter Reach the Fifth?
The load-bearing fact here is workload, not talent. Early is back from a two-month absence and threw fewer than two innings in his last rehab appearance. Tong has not finished a seventh inning all season and walks more than four batters per nine. Project the two starters at six or seven innings combined. The rest belongs to relievers, in the 161st game of a lost season.
That matters because bullpen innings are where run expectation climbs. Washington already leaned on its late-inning group Friday, when Josiah Gray closed out a one-run win for his first career save. New York’s relief work was worse: Jonathan Pintaro gave up three runs while recording a single out. These teams put 13 runs on the board in the opener, and Saturday’s pitching plan is thinner for both sides.
The counter-case deserves real weight. The under is priced at -115 against -105 the other way, so the number leans against us before the first pitch. Washington’s relievers also protected a one-run lead on Friday, a reminder that a bullpen game is not automatically a scoring game. And a contest with nothing at stake can produce a quiet afternoon of reserve hitters. Still, the verified inputs point one way at a fair price.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction — Is the Road Favorite Priced Too Short?
This one starts with the market. The moneyline opened with New York at -134 and has barely budged to -135, yet most moneyline tickets sit on the Mets. When a public side draws that share of the ticket count and the number refuses to move toward it, the quiet read is that the money is not following the tickets. On its own that is a whisper, not a signal.
The rest is straightforward. The better team over the past two weeks is the home underdog, and Washington owns the superior season record despite being priced as the dog. New York arrives at 73-87 with a bullpen that just coughed up a late lead in this ballpark. At +113, Washington needs to win about 47 percent of the time to break even, a modest ask for a home side playing better baseball.
The objection is the one from the section above. Asking a club to win when its starter may not clear the third inning is a real handicap, and if Washington’s middle relief gives up a crooked number early, this read is finished by the fifth. Note too that both plays lean the same way on run-scoring, so they are not independent. We prefer this price to the run line, where -145 on the cushion asks too much juice given this starter’s leash.
The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+113)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no third angle worth a separate position, and forcing one would mean dressing up a thin read. A first-five-innings play looks tempting, but it does not isolate the starters. Early will be gone well before the fifth, so an F5 bet becomes a wager on Washington’s middle relief instead. That is the wrong vehicle for this edge.
Watch two things instead. First, how quickly Early comes out. If he handles two clean innings and the next arm delivers length, the run environment tightens fast. Second, which New York relievers are available after Friday’s loss. For more on how this series set up, see our Mets vs. Nationals prediction for the series opener.
Both positions are leans rather than strong plays. The baseball case is sound on each and the prices are fair, but the market has not confirmed either one. That is a reasonable place to be with an unpredictable starter on the mound.
Our picks: Over 8.5 (-105) and Nationals Moneyline (+113).
MLB Mets vs. Nationals FAQ: Saturday September 26, 2026
What time does the Mets vs. Nationals game start?
First pitch is set for 12:35 PM ET on Saturday, September 26, 2026, at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. It is the middle game of the three-game weekend series that closes the regular season for both the Mets and the Nationals.
Who is pitching for the Nationals on Saturday?
Left-hander Connelly Early starts for Washington and is making his Nationals debut. He has not appeared in a major league game since June 30 while recovering from an elbow injury, and he finished his rehab assignment with a short outing at Triple-A Rochester earlier in the week.
Where are the Mets and Nationals playing today?
The game is at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., the Nationals’ home ballpark. Washington hosts all three games of this final weekend series against New York, which began Friday, September 25 and ends Sunday, September 27. One game remains after Saturday’s matinee.
Who won the last meeting between the Mets and Nationals?
Washington won the series opener 7-6 on Friday, September 25. Dylan Crews homered and scored three runs for the Nationals, while Bo Bichette and Carson Benge homered for New York. Josiah Gray recorded his first career save to close out the ninth inning.
Where do the Mets and Nationals stand in the NL East?
Washington sits fourth in the NL East at 76-84, and New York is fifth and last at 73-87. Both clubs have been eliminated from postseason contention, and Friday’s result assured the Mets of the division’s bottom spot. Atlanta leads the NL East.