The New York Mets open their final road series of 2026 as modest favorites in Washington, and that price deserves a second look. New York sits at -135 on the moneyline without an announced starting pitcher. The Nationals hand the ball to a left-hander who has not allowed a run across his last two outings. Both clubs were eliminated weeks ago, but only one is playing good baseball. Below is the full breakdown for Friday night at Nationals Park, including the run line, the total, the public split, and our two picks.
Last Updated: Friday, September 25, 2026
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| When | Friday, September 25 – 6:45 PM ET |
| TV | WPIX, Nationals.TV |
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The pitching matchup is lopsided in an unusual way. Washington has a confirmed starter. New York does not. The Nationals list left-hander Andrew Alvarez at 2-6 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 107 strikeouts. The win-loss record undersells him badly. Alvarez threw six scoreless innings at St. Louis in his most recent start. The outing before, he allowed one hit over seven scoreless innings against the Angels with eight strikeouts.
New York’s Friday slot is the one that just came open. The Mets placed right-hander Christian Scott on the injured list on September 22 with left knee inflammation after he slipped on the mound during warmups. Scott had made 23 starts with a 3.85 ERA. Jonah Tong is lined up for Saturday and Sean Manaea for Sunday, leaving Friday to a spot starter or a committee. The probable was still unlisted Friday morning.
Recent form points the same way. Washington has won seven of its last 10 and sits fourth in the NL East at 75-84. New York is 4-6 over that stretch and last in the division at 73-86. The Mets did take the last meeting, 4-3 at Citi Field on August 16. Their bullpen is in transition, too: Devin Williams returned from a shoulder strain this week, and manager Andy Green has been using Kodai Senga at the back end.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -1.5 (+130) | -135 | U 8.5 (-130) |
| Nationals | +1.5 (-150) | +113 | O 8.5 (+110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, September 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 56% | 44% | Nationals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction — Why Has This Price Not Moved?
The market read is the load-bearing signal here. New York opened at -135 on the moneyline and still sits at -135. The run line opened at -1.5 (+130) and has not budged either. Yet 71 percent of moneyline tickets are on the Mets, and the public holds a 56-44 edge on New York’s run line. Heavy one-way ticket volume normally drags a price with it. This one has been frozen since it posted, which usually means the handle is more balanced than the ticket count.
The baseball agrees. Washington is home, 7-3 over its last 10, and the only club with a named starter in form. New York is asking an unidentified pitcher to open a game with no stakes. A last-place road team with an unsettled rotation slot, priced as a favorite, usually reflects brand more than matchup. At +113, Washington is offered as close to a coin flip.
The counter-case is real. Alvarez walked four in that seven-inning gem, and command lapses turn quickly. An unannounced Mets starter can also mean a parade of fresh relievers, which sometimes plays better than a tiring starter. Washington’s own bullpen blew a ninth-inning lead behind Alvarez earlier this month. This is a lean on a live underdog, not a mismatch.
The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+113)
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction — Will Either Lineup Break Through?
The total is the second place the market has tipped its hand. The number opened at 8.5 with the under at -125 and the over at +105. It now reads -130 and +110. The line has not moved, but the juice has, and only one way. Money has been arriving on the under.
That fits what the arms say. Alvarez has thrown 13 consecutive scoreless innings across his last two starts, and he has done it by missing bats rather than overpowering hitters. New York’s offense has been quiet in a losing stretch, and this lineup is playing out the final weekend of a 73-86 season on the road. The objection is the Mets’ half of the pitching. If Friday becomes a bullpen game that goes badly, 8.5 clears in six innings. That risk keeps this a lean, and it makes the over at +110 defensible for anyone reading the same facts the other way.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-130)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For bettors who like the Washington read but want less variance, the alternate line is worth a look. The Nationals at +1.5 cushion a one-run loss, and roughly one in four MLB games is decided by a single run. The trade-off is price. At -150 you pay for insurance on a side already available at plus money, so this is the same read at a worse number, not a second edge.
Two things to watch before first pitch. The first is New York’s starter announcement, which can move this number more than anything else here. A rested arm with length changes the total read; an opener does not. The second is how deep Alvarez goes, because keeping him in through the sixth is what protects both positions.
For more, see our latest Mets picks coverage and our recent Nationals pick.
All picks for Mets vs. Nationals: Nationals Moneyline (+113); Under 8.5 (-130); bonus angle, Nationals Run Line +1.5 (-150).
MLB Mets vs. Nationals FAQ: Friday September 25, 2026
What time does the Mets vs. Nationals game start?
First pitch is set for 6:45 PM ET on Friday, September 25, 2026. It is the opener of a three-game weekend series and the 160th game of the season for both clubs. Saturday’s game follows at 4:05 PM ET and Sunday’s finale at 3:05 PM ET.
What channel is the Mets vs. Nationals game on?
Friday’s game is carried on WPIX for New York viewers and on Nationals.TV in the Washington market. Coverage shifts to SNY on the New York side for Saturday and Sunday, with Nationals.TV carrying all three games locally.
Who is pitching for the Nationals tonight?
Left-hander Andrew Alvarez starts for Washington. He carries a 2-6 record with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 107 strikeouts. Alvarez has been sharp lately, throwing six scoreless innings at St. Louis in his last start after seven scoreless against the Angels.
Where are the Mets and Nationals playing today?
The game is at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., the Nationals’ home ballpark. It is the first of three games there to close the regular season for both clubs. New York finishes the year on the road after hosting Washington at Citi Field in mid-August.
Who won the last meeting between the Mets and Nationals?
The Mets won the last meeting 4-3 on August 16, 2026 at Citi Field, completing a three-game New York sweep of Washington. The clubs have not met since, making this weekend their first head-to-head action in more than five weeks.