The Chicago Cubs open a three-game set at Wrigley Field on Tuesday with a postseason berth within reach. The Miami Marlins arrive after a sweep in San Diego. Chicago is -225 on the moneyline, and the total sits at a low 6.5. Kevin Gausman faces Janson Junk, and our strongest read targets the run environment.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| When | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 — 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network (Cubs), Marlins.TV (Marlins) |
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Gausman (9-12, 4.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) takes the ball for Chicago. The August 2 trade acquisition from Toronto is 4-2 with a 5.04 ERA in eight Cubs starts. He strikes out 9.3 per nine innings and walks just 2.4. However, his recent results swing hard. He threw seven innings of one-run ball against Milwaukee on September 3, then allowed six earned runs and three homers to the Brewers six days later. He was steadier last time out, allowing two runs over 5.2 innings against Atlanta.
Junk (6-9, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) goes for Miami. He pitches to contact, with just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. More importantly, he rarely works deep. He has not recorded an out in the sixth inning in any of his last five starts. That stretch includes three innings and eight earned runs against the Mets. He did hold the Cubs to one run over five innings on September 4.
Chicago (87-69) is 6-4 over its last 10 and is tied with San Diego atop the NL wild-card standings. The Cubs scored 61 runs in that stretch, capped by a 9-1 rout of Cincinnati in which Pete Crow-Armstrong hit his 45th home run. The lineup has a hole, though. Third baseman Alex Bregman sustained facial fractures when a foul ball struck him on deck. Miami (76-80) is 4-6 over its last 10 and has allowed 63 runs in that span.
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | +1.5 (-130) | +185 | U 6.5 (+105) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+110) | -225 | O 6.5 (-125) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Marlins | 16% | 84% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction — Is 6.5 Too Low for These Two Staffs?
Start with the bullpens. Junk has averaged roughly four innings over his last five starts, so Miami’s relief corps likely covers half the game. That staff just allowed 22 runs in three losses at San Diego. Meanwhile, Gausman is a strikeout arm with a home-run problem. He allowed five homers across two of his last five starts.
The recent scoring backs this up. Every one of Chicago’s last 10 games produced at least seven runs. Nine of Miami’s last 10 did too. All three meetings in Miami this month also cleared that mark, with scores of 6-1, 6-5 and 10-3. The over price has also moved from -120 at the open to -125, a small move that agrees with the baseball read.
Still, a 6.5 at Wrigley is a deliberate number, and the park’s run environment swings more than most because of its lakefront exposure. Both teams had Monday off, so each bullpen arrives rested. Bregman’s absence also thins Chicago’s lineup. At -125, the price implies about 55.6%, and we think the recent scoring clears that bar.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-125)
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction — Is the Margin Worth Chasing?
The moneyline asks bettors to lay -225, an implied 69.2%. That leaves little value on a straight win, so the margin is the better vehicle. Chicago has won by two or more runs in five of its last six victories. Miami has lost three straight, and its short-starter pattern exposes the bullpen early. If Gausman delivers six solid innings, a multi-run cushion is a realistic path.
The case against is real. Home favorites are a weaker run-line play, because a walk-off win often lands by exactly one run. Gausman’s volatility cuts both ways, and Junk did hold this lineup to one run on September 4. The public is also heavily on Chicago, with 84% of run-line bets and 93% of moneyline bets. The moneyline move from -220 to -225 simply followed that money, so there is no sharp confirmation. This is a lean, which is why it ranks second.
The Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
We are not adding a third play. A first-five angle on Gausman fits the starting matchup, but Junk’s short outings make Miami’s bullpen the bigger factor. The full game is the cleaner way to express this edge.
Watch the fourth and fifth innings. If Junk exits early and Chicago gets into the Miami bullpen, both picks gain traction. In contrast, an efficient Junk start could keep this tight late. For more context, see our preview of the Cubs’ series finale in Cincinnati and our September 14 look at Miami in Arizona.
Picks summary: Over 6.5 (-125) and Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+110).
MLB Marlins vs. Cubs FAQ: Tuesday September 22, 2026
What time does the Marlins vs. Cubs game start?
The Marlins vs. Cubs game starts at 7:40 p.m. ET (6:40 p.m. CT) on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. It is the first game of a three-game series between the two clubs, with the Cubs looking to lock up a postseason berth.
What channel is the Marlins vs. Cubs game on?
The Marlins vs. Cubs game airs on Marquee Sports Network for Chicago viewers and on Marlins.TV for Miami viewers. Both are regional team broadcasts rather than a national telecast, so availability depends on where you live and which provider or service you use to watch.
Who is pitching in the Marlins vs. Cubs game tonight?
Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.55 ERA) starts for the Cubs, and Janson Junk (6-9, 4.50 ERA) starts for the Marlins. Both are right-handers. Gausman joined Chicago in an August trade with Toronto, while Junk faced the Cubs earlier this month and allowed one run over five innings.
Who won the last meeting between the Marlins and Cubs?
The Marlins won the last meeting, beating the Cubs 10-3 at loanDepot park in Miami on September 6, 2026. The Cubs had won the first two games of that series, 6-1 and 6-5, so Chicago leads the season series two games to one entering this week.
Where do the Marlins and Cubs stand in their divisions?
The Cubs are second in the NL Central at 87-69, 11 games behind Milwaukee, and share the top NL wild-card spot with San Diego. The Marlins are third in the NL East at 76-80, 16 games behind Atlanta, and are out of postseason contention.