The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds split the first two games of this weekend set, and Sunday’s rubber match at Great American Ball Park means very different things in each dugout. Chicago woke up a game clear of Philadelphia for the top National League wild-card spot. Cincinnati is playing out a season that ended weeks ago. The market priced that gap: Cubs -155, total 9.5. Our lead play sides with the visitors, and the reason stands on the mound for the home team.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio |
| When | Sunday, September 20 — 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network, Reds.TV |
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Pitching sets the terms here, and neither starter arrives in good form. Cincinnati hands the ball to right-hander Rhett Lowder, who is 6-11 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 124.1 innings. September has been rough. Lowder has lost all three starts this month, stumbling to an 11.68 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP with a 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 12.1 innings. His most recent turn was his steadiest: three runs on five hits and two walks over five innings, in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers.
Chicago counters with left-hander David Peterson, whose season line is not much prettier. Peterson is 8-8 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, with 124 strikeouts against 62 walks in 137.1 innings. However, he was sharp last time out, holding Atlanta to one run on three hits over six-plus innings on September 14. That was his first quality start since August 22. Before it, he covered only 25 innings across five appearances and allowed 12 runs.
The records frame the rest. Chicago sits 86-69 after Saturday’s 5-2 win, in which Matthew Boyd allowed two runs (one earned) in five innings. Cincinnati is 72-83 and out of the postseason picture. Still, the Reds are not folding. They took Friday’s opener 6-4 behind a Jose Trevino two-run single. Venue matters too. Great American Ball Park ranks near the top of the majors for home runs, though it grades closer to league average for total run scoring, as the Statcast park factors show.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -1.5 (+105) | -155 | U 9.5 (+100) |
| Reds | +1.5 (-125) | +130 | O 9.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of September 20, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cubs | 85% | 15% | Reds |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction — How Much Is a Slumping Starter Worth?
The load-bearing signal here is Lowder’s month. An 11.68 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP over three September starts describes a pitcher putting roughly two runners on per inning. Chicago has reason to press, too. The Cubs are fighting for wild-card seeding, and a road club bats the ninth regardless of the score, which preserves late chances to extend a lead. A starter leaking traffic against a visiting lineup with no reason to ease off is the cleanest read on this game.
The case against is real. Lowder has been a different pitcher at home, with a 4.16 ERA there against 7.44 on the road. Chicago’s offense has not been overwhelming either, scoring four runs Friday and five Saturday, and the Cubs came into the weekend 4-6 over their last 10. Peterson’s volatility cuts the same way. If he walks four, the margin disappears fast in this ballpark.
The market offers no help either way. The lines posted Sunday morning and have not moved, with Chicago opening and holding at -155. Meanwhile, the public is piled on the Cubs, holding 85 percent of run-line tickets and 90 percent of moneyline tickets. There is no reverse line movement and no steam to read. The baseball thesis stands on its own, which makes this a lean rather than a conviction play.
The Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+105)
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction — Will Two Shaky Arms Keep the Scoreboard Busy?
Both starters carry WHIPs above 1.50, and that is the argument in one number. Peterson has issued 62 walks in 137.1 innings, and Lowder has walked eight men in 12.1 September innings. Base traffic drives pitch counts, early exits, and multi-run innings, and it does so in one of the most home-run-friendly parks in baseball. Chicago also put two solo homers on the board Saturday against a starter pitching far better than the one it faces today.
Two caveats belong here. First, both bullpens are in reasonable shape. Nick Lodolo gave Cincinnati seven innings Saturday, leaving the Reds needing only two relief innings. Second, the Reds offense has been quiet, winning one of seven against the Dodgers before this series. This play also leans on the same read of Lowder as the one above, so the two picks are correlated rather than independent.
The Pick: Over 9.5 (-120)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle clears the bar today. Here is what decides this game. Watch Lowder’s first trip through the Chicago order. If he escapes the first three innings with the game close, the Reds have a path to a low-scoring afternoon that beats both of our positions.
Peterson’s walk count is the other tell. When he works ahead, he gets into the sixth. When he nibbles, Craig Counsell goes to the bullpen early and the middle innings open up. For more on this series, see our Cubs vs. Reds prediction from September 19.
Both plays rest on the same foundation and can miss together. Here is the full card for Sunday’s rubber match: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+105) and Over 9.5 (-120).
MLB Cubs vs. Reds FAQ: Sunday September 20, 2026
What time does the Cubs vs. Reds game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 20, 2026. It is a Sunday matinee rather than the 6:40 p.m. ET starts used for the first two games of the series.
What channel is the Cubs vs. Reds game on?
The game airs on Marquee Sports Network for Chicago viewers and on the Reds broadcast, listed as Reds.TV, for Cincinnati viewers. Coverage is regional rather than national, so availability depends on your market and provider package.
Who is pitching for the Reds and Cubs today?
Right-hander Rhett Lowder starts for Cincinnati and left-hander David Peterson starts for Chicago. Lowder is 6-11 with a 5.79 ERA this season, while Peterson is 8-8 with a 5.11 ERA. Both are confirmed on the Reds probable pitchers page.
Where are the Cubs and Reds playing today?
The teams play at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, the Reds’ home ballpark. Chicago is the visiting team for all three games of this series. The venue is known for its compact dimensions and its reputation as one of the sport’s better home run environments.
How many games are left in the Cubs-Reds series?
Sunday’s game is the finale of a three-game series, so none remain after this one. Cincinnati won the opener 6-4 on Friday and Chicago answered 5-2 on Saturday, which makes this the rubber match. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.