Tigers Win Total Prediction
Eager to erase the foul stench of a 74-87 finish, Detroit GM Al Avila entered the offseason on a rampage. He added reliable veteran Jordan Zimmermann to the starting five, inked outfielder Justin Upton to a $135 million deal and solidified the closer’s role with Francisco Rodriguez – all in an effort to obliterate any memory of the organization’s worst mark since 2008.
Quantity doesn’t always translate to quantity. In this case, however, a restocked cupboard contains exquisite ingredients indeed. Oddsmakers at online sports book Bovada.lv seem to agree, putting the Tigers’ 2016 projected wins total at 81.5.
If Brad Ausumus’ club aspires to resume its long-term relationship with October baseball, the pitching must pave the way. Zimmermann was acquired to give Justin Verlander a dependable sidekick, someone who had been absent since Max Scherzer’s departure to Washington. Skeptical fans in Motown can rest assured that last season’s relatively pedestrian 13-10 record and 3.66 ERA were not the start of some precipitous decline, but rather the product of the general malaise surrounding the Nationals.
What should we make of Verlander himself, though? Is the 33-year-old still capable of posting a 2.27 ERA over a 14-start stretch, as he did to conclude 2015? Will he ever recapture the form that produced a Cy Young award earlier in the decade? Diminished velocity suggest the glory days are long gone, but last September clearly features flashes of brilliance while drawing from a different repertoire.
While at least a fair amount of confidence surrounds the two lead arms, the rest of the rotation invites doubt. Anibal Sanchez actually led the American League in ERA and FIP two years ago. Then the home-run ball and chronic shoulder soreness made him a liability. Talented youngster Daniel Norris, meanwhile, battled shoulder issues and a disturbing growth. (He has since had it removed and is cancer-free.)
Not nearly as much uncertainty revolves around the offense. Miguel Cabrera, having just captured his fourth AL batting title, hopes to suit up for more than 119 games this time around. Upton and the surging J.D. Martinez follow the two-time MVP to the post, making for a dangerously good heart of the lineup. Ian Kinsler represents a proven table-setter, too, so the Tigers’ division rivals will have their hurlers tested on a consistent basis.
With several regulars belonging to the 30-and-over crowd, however, bench depth becomes of paramount importance. And that’s where Detroit’s issues crop up. Cameron Maybin, another winter addition, already stands to miss a month-plus because of a fractured wrist. There isn’t an impact bat-in-waiting at designated hitter, either in the event that Victor Martinez experiences further knee trouble.
At the end of the day, the Tigers epitomize the term “paper champions.” The addition of Rodriguez at the back end of the bullpen will prove especially useful given the abundance of tight-and-late situations to come, but this group can’t afford many false moves.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 81.5 GAMES
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