The Chicago Cubs go for a sweep at loanDepot park on Sunday afternoon, and the market has them at -149 against a Miami Marlins team that has lost three straight. Chicago took the first two games with the better starting arm and hotter lineup. Miami counters with a home record far stronger than its road mark. The total sits at 8, and our headline play comes out of the starting pitching gap.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins — Time & How to Watch
| Where | loanDepot park, Miami, Florida |
| When | September 6, 2026 — 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network |
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Clay Holmes gets the ball for Chicago, and his season line is the best number in this game. He is 6-6 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 81.2 innings, with 63 strikeouts. Holmes fractured his right fibula in May and did not join the Cubs until an August 3 trade. Sunday is roughly his sixth start since being activated on August 8. He has allowed five earned runs across his last 29 innings, and has not exceeded seven innings in any start since returning.
Miami counters with Tyler Phillips, a swingman rather than a fixed rotation piece. He has made 33 appearances and only 16 starts, and two of his last four outings came in relief. His season line reads 4-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 110.1 innings, with 90 strikeouts against 47 walks. He allowed one hit over five scoreless innings against Kansas City on September 1, but has not completed more than 5.1 innings in his last five appearances.
The Cubs are 81-62, second in the National League Central and holding the top wild card position, per the official MLB standings. The Marlins are 71-72 and 14 games back in the East. Chicago has outscored opponents by 18 runs over its last 10 games, while Miami has been outscored by seven. Still, the Marlins are 42-28 at home against 29-43 on the road. Chicago remains without Dansby Swanson, who is on the injured list. For the previous game, see our Cubs vs. Marlins prediction for September 5.
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -1.5 (+115) | -149 | U 8 (-105) |
| Marlins | +1.5 (-140) | +123 | O 8 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction — Can a Rebuilt Arm Carry a Sweep?
The load-bearing signal is the gap between the two starters. Holmes has allowed five earned runs across his last 29 innings, while Phillips has not finished the fifth inning in five straight outings. The mechanics add to it. Chicago is the road team, so it bats in the ninth whether it leads or trails. A road favorite gets extra swings to push a one-run lead to two; a home favorite does not, because the game ends.
Miami’s bullpen makes those late innings more inviting than usual. Closer Pete Fairbanks has been on the injured list since August 25 and is not projected back until September 9, and setup man Anthony Bender has been out since June 30, per the team’s official injury report. That leaves Miami without its two highest-leverage arms behind a starter unlikely to see the sixth.
The case against is real. loanDepot park suppresses offense, and Baseball Reference lists Miami’s 2026 park factors at 96 for batting and 95 for pitching, both under the neutral 100 baseline. Roughly a quarter of major league games are decided by one run, and Saturday’s 6-5 Chicago win was that kind of game. Holmes is also still rebuilding innings, so Chicago needs its bullpen to protect a lead. This reads as a lean, not a conviction.
The Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+115)
Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction — Are Two Thin Bullpens the Real Story?
The second angle comes from the same game but a different part of it: what happens once both starters leave. Neither is built to work deep. Holmes has not exceeded seven innings since returning, and Phillips has not gone past 5.1 innings in five appearances. That points toward eight or nine combined innings of relief, and neither bullpen is in shape to absorb it.
Miami is missing Fairbanks and Bender and has no defined closer. Chicago ranks around 12th in bullpen ERA at roughly 4.00, but recent usage is the concern. Ryan Zeferjahn has pitched twice in three days after saving Saturday’s game, Aaron Civale threw three innings on Friday, and Jacob Webb is day-to-day with a forearm contusion. The counter-argument is straightforward: Miami’s offense has been cold, scoring 43 runs across its last 10 games, and the park works against scoring. This is also a partial hedge on the first play.
The Pick: Over 8 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Watch the fifth and sixth innings. Holmes has a soft innings ceiling and Phillips a short leash, so both managers will reach for the phone early.
Miami’s live scenario is narrow. Keep this within a run into the seventh, and the Marlins face a Chicago relief group with mileage on its best arms. Chicago’s path: get Phillips out by the fifth and attack a bullpen missing its top two options. For more, see our latest MLB picks coverage.
To recap the plays in this article: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+115) and Over 8 (-115). Both rest on two short starts and two thin bullpens in a pitcher-friendly park.
MLB Cubs vs. Marlins FAQ: Sunday September 6, 2026
What time does the Cubs vs. Marlins game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 6, 2026. This is the third and final game of the three-game series between Chicago and Miami, which opened on Friday, September 4. It is an afternoon start rather than an evening slot.
What channel is the Cubs vs. Marlins game on?
The game airs on Marquee Sports Network for Chicago viewers and on the Marlins local broadcast for Miami viewers. There is no national television window for this matchup, so availability depends on your regional sports package. Marquee has carried this series.
Who is pitching for the Cubs today?
Right-hander Clay Holmes is the confirmed probable starter for Chicago. He carries a 2.09 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 81.2 innings this season. Holmes joined the Cubs in an August 3 trade and was activated on August 8 after a fractured right fibula.
Where are the Cubs and Marlins playing today?
The game is at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, the Marlins’ home ballpark. Chicago is the visiting team for all three games of this series. Miami has been stronger at home this season, at 42-28 there against 29-43 on the road.
Who won the last meeting between the Cubs and Marlins?
Chicago won 6-5 on Saturday, September 5, at loanDepot park. The Cubs collected 13 hits and Ryan Zeferjahn recorded the save. Chicago also took the opener 6-1 on Friday, September 4, so the Cubs enter Sunday looking to sweep.