The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds meet again Saturday at Great American Ball Park, a night after a 10-7 Milwaukee win that produced 17 runs. The Brewers sit at -162 on the moneyline and the total is 9.5. The more interesting story is what has happened to those prices since they opened. Both listed starters have been hit hard lately, and one number has not moved at all.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio |
| When | Saturday, September 5, 2026 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, Brewers.TV |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Neither side is sending out a stabilizer. Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Dustin May, who is 6-9 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.321 WHIP across 128.2 innings. In five starts since joining the Brewers he is 1-2 with a 6.41 ERA over just 19.2 innings. Three of his last four outings ended early, including seven earned runs in two innings against Seattle. He exited after one pitch on August 26 when a 106 mph line drive struck him in the back, though he avoided the injured list. The exception was seven innings of one-run ball at San Diego.
Cincinnati counters with left-hander Andrew Abbott, who is 6-10 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.443 WHIP over 148.1 innings. His strikeout rate is modest at 7.0 per nine. Abbott gave up seven earned runs in three innings at Chicago on August 29 and has not won since August 6. Still, he has worked into the sixth or seventh in three of his last five turns.
The team gap is wide. Milwaukee is 88-54 with the best record in baseball, leading the NL Central by eight games. The Brewers average 5.04 runs per game behind a 3.50 team ERA, second best in the majors. Cincinnati is 67-74, sits 20.5 games back and is seven games out of the final wild card spot.
The Reds offense is an unusual profile. The club is last in the majors with a .229 average and scores 4.17 runs per game. Yet it has hit 188 home runs, 57 more than Milwaukee. The lineup is thin as well, with Ke’Bryan Hayes on the injured list since August 28 and both Spencer Steer and Michael Toglia done for the year.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -1.5 (+100) | -162 | U 9.5 (-115) |
| Reds | +1.5 (-120) | +136 | O 9.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Brewers | 77% | 23% | Reds |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Brewers vs. Reds Prediction — Can Either Starter Get Through Six?
The load-bearing signal here is starter length. May has gone past 4.1 innings once in his last four starts. Abbott carries a 1.443 WHIP, and traffic on the bases drives pitch counts up and starters out early. When both arms project to exit by the fifth or sixth, two bullpens absorb most of the remaining innings. That is where totals climb.
The venue supports the same read in one specific way. Great American Ball Park carries a home run park factor of 114 on a three-year Statcast basis, among the highest in the sport. That matters for a club whose 188 homers are its clearest strength. The market has nudged the same way. This total opened with the over at +105 and now sits at -105, about ten cents of movement with the number frozen at 9.5.
The counter-case is real. Cincinnati is last in the majors in batting average, so this offense goes quiet often. Milwaukee’s staff ranks second in baseball at 3.50, more than a run better than Cincinnati’s 4.68. There is a park wrinkle as well. On a 2026-only basis, both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs list Great American below the league-average run baseline. Our Cubs-Marlins prediction covers another NL total today.
The Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Brewers vs. Reds Prediction — Why Will This Number Not Move?
The market read leads this one. Roughly 90 percent of moneyline tickets are on Milwaukee, along with 77 percent of run line bets. A number under that kind of pressure normally gets pushed. This one has not. The Brewers opened at -162 and remain there, with Cincinnati at +136 throughout. The run line did drift toward Milwaukee, from +105 to +100, which is what recreational money produces. A frozen moneyline while the crowd piles in is the quieter signal, and it often points to larger money on the other side.
There is a baseball case underneath it. The Reds are home, they hit for power in a park that rewards it, and they face a starter with a 6.41 ERA in five turns with his new club. At +136, the price implies a break-even win rate near 42 percent. Cincinnati does not have to be the better team to clear that bar. In contrast, the case against is simple. The Reds are 1-7 against Milwaukee this season, they are missing several regulars, and the Brewers own the better bullpen late. This pick and the total also lean on the same read of May, which we would rather state plainly.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+136)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle stands on its own signals, so we will leave it at two rather than force a play. The swing moment to watch is May’s leash. Milwaukee leaned on relief work Friday, when Chad Patrick took the win out of the bullpen and Trevor Megill closed it for his 26th save. The Brewers also activated Abner Uribe on August 31 and JoJo Romero on September 1, so that group is healthier than a week ago. If both starters are gone by the sixth, the middle innings favor the side with more margin for error, and that is Milwaukee. That is the main risk to the underdog half of our card. See also today’s Yankees-Padres prediction.
To recap the card for this game: Over 9.5 (-105) and Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+136).
MLB Brewers vs. Reds FAQ: Saturday September 5, 2026
What time does the Brewers vs. Reds game start?
First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. It is the middle game of a three-game weekend series between the two clubs, and Milwaukee took the opener 10-7 on Friday night.
What channel is the Brewers vs. Reds game on?
This game is a regional broadcast, carried on Reds.TV in the Cincinnati market and on Brewers.TV in the Milwaukee market. There is no national television window for this matchup, and neither club is on a national partner tonight. Out-of-market viewers can find the game on MLB.TV.
Who is pitching for the Reds tonight?
Left-hander Andrew Abbott is the listed starter for Cincinnati. He enters at 6-10 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.443 WHIP across 148.1 innings in 28 starts this season. Milwaukee counters with right-hander Dustin May, who is 6-9 with a 4.69 ERA over 128.2 innings.
Who won the last meeting between the Brewers and Reds?
Milwaukee won 10-7 at Great American Ball Park on Friday, September 4, 2026. Chad Patrick took the win, Rhett Lowder took the loss and Trevor Megill earned the save. The Brewers now lead the 2026 season series against Cincinnati by a 7-1 margin.
Where do the Brewers and Reds stand in the NL Central?
Milwaukee is 88-54 and leads the NL Central by eight games over the Chicago Cubs, holding the best record in baseball. Cincinnati is 67-74 and sits fifth in the division, 20.5 games back. The Reds are also seven games out of the third National League wild card spot.