UFC 202 Rewind
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Conor McGregor (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) captured a majority-decision win (48-47, 47-47, 48-47) over Nate Diaz as a -135 favorite in the UFC 202 main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. VegasInsider.com scored the fight 48-47 in favor of Diaz, who was given a 10-8 score by one of the three judges in a dominant third round that clearly shifted the momentum of the bout.
Just like in the first meeting at UFC 196, ‘The Notorious’ came out strong, albeit more patient, and with more effective use of his kicks to Diaz’s left leg. McGregor dropped Diaz with punches three times in the first two rounds, and on each occasion he refused to was landing more in the first three minutes of the second stanza, but a Diaz combination backed up the featherweight champion. At this point, Diaz poured it on as McGregor seemed to get winded.
Diaz spent most of the last 90 seconds of the round hammering away at McGregor with strikes against the fence. McGregor wasn’t fully recovered to start the third. Diaz was in control, pointing and laughing at his opponent in vintage Diaz Brother form. Diaz landed 58 significant strikes in the third round, more than double the amount (24) landed by the UFC’s featherweight kingpin.
The fourth round went back and forth. Diaz seemed to be more active and McGregor did a lot of running. However, the Dublin product clearly found a second wind midway through the stanza and landed several nice combinations. I thought the round could’ve gone either way. VI scored it for McGregor.
McGregor was on the run again for most of the fifth. Diaz scored in his only takedown in this round and enjoyed a 29-23 advantage in significant strikes. I was of the opinion that this round should’ve sealed the deal for a Diaz victory.
VI gave Diaz the nod in Rounds 2, 3 and 5. Diaz had a 178-161 advantage in significant strikes.
McGregor clearly won Round 1 and Diaz clearly won Rounds 3 and 5 and, as one judge did, you could make a possible argument that the third was a 10-8 in favor of Diaz. Rounds 2 and 4 were extremely close. If you give Octagon control much credence as the judging rules suggest you should, Diaz clearly was the winner in that department in each of the last three rounds with McGregor consistently refusing to stand in the pocket and bang. In fact, Diaz had to chase him around the cage to initiate any action for decent chunks of the last 15 minutes.
Gamblers backing ‘over’ 2.5 rounds cashed at a winner at a -140 price. The prop for the fight to go to a decision paid out +320 odds (risk $100 to win $320). Bettors taking McGregor to by decision hit a nice +550 payout. For those who took the longshot odds for a draw (60/1 at 5Dimes.eu), there were about 2-3 seconds of Tease City in which it seemed plausible that that might be the result after Bruce Buffer announced the 47-47 score, but it was not to be.
Both fighters showed good sportsmanship in the aftermath, though Diaz felt he clearly won the fight. A trilogy will happen, but not right away. McGregor wants the rubber match to take place at 155 pounds and Diaz wasn’t opposed to that at all. Diaz did say that he’ll be on the sidelines waiting for that third fight with McGregor. He has made it clear that he has zero interest in chasing a title any longer. Both of the Diaz Brothers just want big money fights moving forward.
McGregor was paid a UFC-record $3 million, while Diaz pocketed $2 million. Both earned an extra 50K for the Fight of the Night honors, and the bout joins Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit and Marco Polo Reyes vs. Dong Hyun Kim as candidates for 2016 Fight of the Year.
In the co-main event, Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson needed only 13 seconds to hand Glover Teixeira the first KO loss of his career from a powerful overhand right. Johnson hooked up his backers as a -245 favorite. My 2.5 unit pick of ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at a -130 price was a winner, making up for my two-unit loss on Diaz.
Prop bets on Johnson paid out as follows: -131 to win inside the distance, -128 to win by TKO/KO and +160 in Round 1.
Teixeira, who saw his three-fight winning streak snapped, took home a 65K paycheck.
Johnson, who collected a 50K Performance of the Night bonus on top of his $270,000 paycheck (135 to show, 135 win bonus), stated that he wants his rematch with Daniel Cormier for the light-heavyweight strap to take place at UFC 205 at MSG in NYC.
Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone improved to 3-0 in the welterweight loop by becoming the first fighter to finish Rick ‘The Horror’ Story by KO (head kick and punches) at the 2:02 mark of Round 2. In his Octagon interview with Joe Rogan, Cerrone called for a title shot against Eddie Alvarez at lightweight.
Like Johnson, Cerrone earned a POTN bonus and made it clear that he desperately wants to be on the UFC 205 card. His reported payout from the NAC was 170 large (85 to show and an 85 win bonus).
A lot of money came in on Story early Saturday afternoon, prompting many books to go from the -165 range down in the -125 neighborhood. But once that happened, bettors pounced on Cerrone at the inexpensive price and he eventually closed at around -140 or -145 at many spots. My one-unit play on the ‘under’ (2.5 rounds, +155) was a winner (the payout actually closed at +170, but my VI preview filed on Friday came when it was at +155). Also, wagers on Cerrone to win by TKO/KO paid a +500 return and Cerrone to win inside the distance brought back +255. The prop for Cowboy to win in Round 2 paid a gorgeous +725 amount.
Mike Perry enjoyed an excellent UFC debut, scoring a first-round KO win over Hyun Gyu Lim as a +220 underdog. In the main card’s opener, Tim Means defeated Sabah Homasi via second-round KO as a -400 ‘chalk.’
In the prelims headliner, Cody Garbrandt needed only 48 second to finish Takeya Mizugaki by KO as a monster -525 favorite. My five-unit play on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for a +130 return was an easy winner. Also, my prop bet for one-half unit on ‘No Love’ to win in Round 1 paid out a +200 return. Garbrandt improved to 10-0 overall, 5-0 in the UFC. He now has nine career KOs and seven first-round KOs on his resume.
Garbrandt, at the age of 25, is a rising star and it says here that he’s not only ready for a title shot against Dominick Cruz, but he’s poised to take the strap via the KO route.
In the FightPass headliner, Lorenz Larkin improved to 4-1 in the UFC’s welterweight division since dropping down from middleweight by collecting a first-round KO win over Neil Magny. Larkin cashed tickets as a +120 underdog against Magny, who had won 10 of his 11 previous fights.
My one-unit play on Magny at a -135 price was a loser. Nevertheless, my UFC 202 picks went 4-2 for 8.2 units of profit.