Free Picks for Sunday, July 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
INDIANS VS. TIGERS
PLAY: INDIANS +103
Note that I’m leaning to Cleveland here but I’ll hold off betting till I see the lineups in the morning. But I do feel the Indians have a good chance to score the win here. Justin Verlander is getting priced more on rep than reality these days. JV is still a solid enough option but he’s not an ace anymore. As for Mike Clevinger, it’s all about control. When he’s able to avoid getting himself in trouble with free passes, the young righty is proving to be a good big league pitcher. The Tigers have a veteran cast that generally exhibits patience so the walks are at least a concern going in. But off the math, I see the value here being with Cleveland at the current tag. So the Indians are the free play for Sunday. Check my Twitter timeline in the morning for an update.
Scott Rickenbach
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Giants -124
The Pirates couldn't hit the Giants most hittable pitcher (Matt Moore) yesterday so that doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh Sunday as they now face Jeff Samardzija after losing 2-1 in extra innings yesterday. Samardzija has an ugly record on the road but he's certainly been victimized by some bad luck as he has a 1.12 WHIP away from home this season. The Giants have won 5 straight games and Pittsburgh has lost 6 of its last 10. The Pirates also have lost 3 straight starts made by Trevor Williams. Also, in his start prior to this 3-game losing streak, Williams allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Here we are getting a very reasonable price on the hotter team with the veteran hurler and we can fade a slumping team with an inexperienced pitcher whom has a 5.31 ERA at the MLB level so far in his career. I'll take it!
Chip Chirimbes
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Marlins -128
Now, this seems a bit odd as Miami has lost four straight and are nine-games under .500 and yet are favored on the road against first-place Milwaukee who has won three straight. The answer as to why must come from the starting pitching where Miami will start Dan Straily (5-4, 3.44 ERA) whose record does not reflect how he has pitched. Straily has surrendered just 70 hits in 89 innings and will be up against Junior Guerra (1-2, 4.54) who is making his first start against Miami. Note that Strailey is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA against the Brewers.
Red Dog Sports
HJK vs. FC Inter Turku
Play: HJK -120
This soccer match takes place on Sunday at 11:30 am eastern. HJK is on the road but has won their last 5 matches while FC Inter Turku is 1-3-1 in its last 5.
Marc Lawrence
Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -118
Edges - White Sox: Quintana 3-0 wot 0.90 ERA last three starts, and 6-1 last seven team starts during June… Rangers: Ross 6.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP away this season.. With Ross 2-4 in his day starts as opposed to 5-0 at night this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago White Sox.
Ben Burns
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Over 8
Kenta Maeda (6-3, 4.15 ERA) has been hit-or-miss this year, but does come in off a good outing against the Angels on Tuesday, going seven scoreless in the victory (note though that LA was without sluggers Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Cameron Maybin in the line-up.) Maeda has admittedly looked better of late, but note that he’s struggled on the road all season, just 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA. Like his counterpart, Padres’ starter Jhoulys Chacin (6-7, 4.76) has been consistently inconsistent this year and most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Chacin has been better at home than on the road, but he’s still a horrible 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA in all “day” games. With these two often-volatile starters going head-to-head on Saturday afternoon, the over becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.
Handicappers Hub
Braves vs. Athletics
Play: Braves +160
As ironic as it is; Teheran is actually better on the road for the Braves. As a matter of fact, he is undefeated with a 5-0 record and 2.89 ERA away from Atlanta. Look for this to continue today and the Braves offense to bust out for a big road win today!
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Oakland
Pick: Over 8.5
"Typical" Braves' road games average 9.6 runs per game. That's w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat, almost exclusively, remember. Meanwhile, Oakland's home games have been among the highest scoring in all of baseball at 10.0 runs per game. Therefore, it's a bit surprising to have seen the first two games of this series both stay Under. But I'll call for today's game to be the highest scoring one as the "elusive" Over should finally hit.
Julio Teheran pitched far better than his record indicated in 2016. It's somewhat ironic then that his team start record has improved this year despite the overall numbers getting worse, significantly in some cases. Teheran has struggled far more in the Braves' new stadium as on the road as he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.238 WHIP. But last time out (this was at home), he was horrible as he gave up seven runs in three innings. It was the eighth straight start giving up a home run (14 total) and his strikeout numbers continue to be way down. I think Oakland will get to him.
Same w/ Atlanta and Sean Manaea. Yes, he got away w/ allowing just 1 ER his last time out. But that was on nine hits in just 5 2/3 IP. Similar to Teheran, low strikeout numbers are indicative of a pitcher that's not very dominant. He had only three his last time out, equal to the number of walks. His WHIP over his L3 starts is 1.754.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The set-up: The Tigers and Indians played a doubleheader on Saturday. Detroit received back-to-back HRs from J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera in a 7-4 victory in the opener but couldn't complete the sweep in falling 4-1 to the Indians' Carrasco (9-3 & 3.50 ERA). The Tigers head into Sunday's game 4-10 in their last 14 games and 36-44 on the season, seven games back of the first-place Indians. The 4-1 win in the nightcap improves Cleveland's road record to 25-16 and at 43-37 overall, Cleveland is the only team in the AL Central with a positive run-differential (plus-56).
The pitching matchup: Mike Clevinger (3-3 & 3.56 ERA) will get the start for Cleveland and Justin Verlander (5-4 & 4.47 ERA) for Detroit. Clevinger has shown excelelnt improvement form last year . He had a 5.26 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 appearances (10 starts) in 2016 but in 10 appearances (nine starts) in 2017, that ERA is down to 3.56 and his WHIP down to 1.19. Also, after batters hit .246 against him last season, he owns an outstanding BAA in 2017 at .198! He registered a season-high nine strikeouts in holding Texas to one run on two hits over six innings on Tuesday but had to settle for a no-decision (Texas won 2-1). He failed to pitch beyond five innings in each of his previous three starts (all on the road) while giving up eight runs and eight walks in 13 innings (5.54 ERA). Justin Verlander has made more starts against the Cleveland Indians (50) than any other opponent and also has his most losses (22) against Detroit's American League Central rival. Verlander ended a six-start win-less drought Tuesday, giving up three runs on nine hits over seven innings to beat Kansas City. The six-time All-Star notched a season-high 11 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in his previous outing at Seattle, taking a no-decision after giving up three runs on four hits. Verlander is 20-22 versus Cleveland with a 4.60 ERA in 50 starts (Tigers are 23-27).
The pick: OK, Verlander has certainly not handled the Indians all that well over his career but Clevinger is a young pitcher who after holding two opponents to zero runs in his first two road starts of 2017, has failed to pitch beyond five innings in each of his last three starts, posting a 5.54 ERA (see above for more). As for Verlander, let's turn to James McCann who has caught his last two outings. "He's made a few adjustments from start to start, and you're starting to see the results show. JV is a guy who expects perfection out of himself every time he steps on the mound and he's done a heck of a job recently for us. I look for him to continue to make strides and continue to be the Verlander that we've all come to know and love." I'll go with the vet.
Brandon Shively
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Over 10
Hector Santiago vs. Travis Wood should lead to a bunch of runs in this one. Wood hasn't been any good in relief this year, and I see no reason to expect good things from him when he starts either. Santiago has been dreadful of late, and this Royals offense has really heated up in a big way of late.
Both games between these two were high scoring on Saturday, and this should be another that flies over the posted total.
Larry Ness
Mariners at Angels
Play: Mariners
The Angels are nothing if not consistent, Los Angeles has won exactly 14 games in April, May and June to open the 2017 season but after opening July with a 4-0 Saturday win over Seattle, is hoping to surpass the 14-win threshold this month. The 43-42 Angels have little hope of catching the Astros in the AL West (Houston leads them by 13 1/2 games) but almost the entire AL is alive in the wild card chase. The Angels enter the rubber game of this three-game series (Seattle won 1-0 on Friday) just one game out of the second wild card spot while their opponent, the 40-42 Seattle Mariners, are just 2 1/2 games back. Saturday's 4-0 loss means Seattle has lost five of its last six games and more bad news comes in he form of Nelson Cruz exiting Saturday’s contest in the fifth inning with a sore right knee (questionable for Sunday's game).
Seattle lefty James Paxton (5-3, 3.44 ERA) takes the hill and will be opposed by the Angels' Jesse Chavez (5-8, 5.04 ERA). Paxton started strong in 2017 (5-0 with a 1.69 ERA after eight starts) but he's now win-less in his last four (0-3 with a 7.65 ERA). The good news is he has 17 Ks in his last two outings (12.1 innings) and that he' 3-2 with a 2.12 ERA in eight career starts versus Los Angeles (team is 4-4).
Chavez bounced back from a rough outing against the New York Yankees by back on June 22 (5 ERs in 4 IP) by allowing two runs over 5.1 innings on Tuesday vs the Los Angeles Dodgers, although the Angels lost 4-0. He did not give up a home run in the loss, which snapped a franchise-record 13-game streak of allowing at least one. Chavez owns a 1-6 record and 5.40 ERA in 18 career games (eight starts / teams are 2-6) against the Mariners.
Paxton keeps teasing the Mariners by showing signs of brilliance, followed by stretches in which he looks more like a minor-leaguer. However, he has posted a 2.18 ERA in three outings at Angel Stadium and LA's Chavez comes in having allowed five ERs or more in four of his last eight outings. I'm going with Seattle.
Big Al
Boston vs. Toronto
Pick: Boston -104
The Red Sox have plenty of weapons at their disposal, but perhaps the most important feature of this team is that they are one of the few MLB Clubs who can boast three very good southpaws in their five-man rotation. Chris Sale and David Price are well-known, but the third member of that lefty trio - and often the forgotten one - is Drew Pomeranz, who the Sox acquired last season from the San Diego Padres. Pomeranz doesn't have the explosive stuff that Sale and Price possess, but he is more than an adequate #3 or #4 starter and has the numbers to prove it lately. Pomeranz struggled a bit when he came over in the second half of last season - but that was probably due to adjusting to the American League more than anything else. This season, he has been much more consistent, going 7-4 with a very nice 3.81 ERA in 15 starts, and he has posted a 1.53 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three. He's had some issues adjusting to Fenway Park as well, as his ERA there is 5.00 over 15 career games (14 starts) and this year it's almost a run higher at home (4.28) than it is on the road (3.32). Toronto's lineup has struggled against lefties all season.
Jim Feist
Colorado at Arizona
Pick: Over
This is a good park to hit in and a pair of super offensive teams clash, with Colorado #6 in runs scored, Arizona #5. Colorado is 4-1 over the total against a righty and has German Marquez (4.38 ERA) on the mound, off a 9-2 loss at San Fran allowing 5 runs in 4 innings. Arizona is 13-6-2 over the total at home against a team with a winning road record. Starter Taijuan Walker walks too many batters, 28 in 69 innings with 67 hits allowed. And the Over is 21-10-4 in the last 35 meetings in Arizona.
Rob Vinciletti
Phillies at Mets
Play: Mets
The Mets have caught fire and have won 7 of the last 8. They are averaging over 6 runs per game on this run and take on a Philly team that has lost 33 of 45 on the road. The Mets have Montero who is off his best start of the season and takes on a 29th ranked offensive lineup at home here against Philly. The Phils are ranked 25th in Era and have Pivetta pitching with his 6.67 road Era. Home favorites in this range off a 1 run home favored win scoring 5+ runs with 3+ errors are 5-0 since 2004 vs a team off a road loss that scored 5+ runs and had 10+ hits. Look for NY. To Bring out the Brooms.