The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to captivate audiences today, Saturday, May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. This year’s “Run for the Roses” features a competitive field of 20 three-year-old colts vying for a $5 million purse and a place in racing history.
Top Contenders
Journalism (Post 8, 3-1)
Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism enters as the morning-line favorite. With four consecutive victories, including a standout performance in the Santa Anita Derby, he boasts a high Beyer Speed Figure of 102. However, some analysts express concerns about the level of competition he has faced thus far.
Sovereignty (Post 18, 5-1)
Trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby. Known for his strong late kick, he will need to navigate from an outside post position.
Sandman (Post 17, 6-1)
Winner of the Arkansas Derby, Sandman is praised for his powerful finishes despite slow starts. If he can avoid traffic, he poses a serious threat.
Burnham Square (Post 9, 12-1)
After an impressive finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, Burnham Square is considered a valuable bet. The slightly longer track at Churchill Downs may suit him.
Luxor Café (Post 7, 15-1)
This Japanese entrant, sired by American Pharoah, has garnered attention for his smooth performance in the Fukuryu Stakes and strong late finish. Jockey Joao Moreira will be aboard.
Baeza (Post 21, 12-1)
Initially an alternate, Baeza drew into the field following the scratch of Rodriguez. He showed grit in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing second to Journalism, and is now considered a potential favorite among savvy bettors.
Full Field and Morning-Line Odds
Post Horse Odds Trainer Jockey
1 Citizen Bull 20-1 Bob Baffert Martin Garcia
2 Neoequos 30-1 Saffie Joseph Jr. Luis Saez
3 Final Gambit 30-1 Brad H. Cox Luan Machado
5 American Promise 30-1 D. Wayne Lukas Nik Juarez
6 Admire Daytona 30-1 Yukihiro Kato Christophe Lemaire
7 Luxor Café 15-1 Noriyuki Hori João Moreira
8 Journalism 3-1 Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli
9 Burnham Square 12-1 Ian R. Wilkes Brian Hernandez Jr.
11 Flying Mohawk 30-1 Whit Beckman Joseph Ramos
12 East Avenue 20-1 Brendan P. Walsh Manuel Franco
13 Publisher 20-1 Steven M. Asmussen Irad Ortiz Jr.
14 Tiztastic 20-1 Steven M. Asmussen Joel Rosario
15 Render Judgment 30-1 Kenneth G. McPeek Julien Leparoux
16 Coal Battle 30-1 Lonnie Briley Juan Vargas
17 Sandman 6-1 Mark E. Casse José Ortiz
18 Sovereignty 5-1 William I. Mott Junior Alvarado
19 Chunk of Gold 30-1 Ethan West Jareth Loveberry
20 Owen Almighty 30-1 Brian A. Lynch Javier Castellano
21 Baeza 12-1 John Shirreffs Flavien Prat
Expert Predictions
Top Pick: Journalism is widely regarded as the top contender, with experts noting his strong closing kick and high Beyer Speed Figure.
Value Bet: Burnham Square is considered a valuable bet at 12-1 odds, especially given his strong finish in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Long Shot: Luxor Café, with his impressive pedigree and performance in Japan, is a popular long-shot pick among analysts.
2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions
The 2025 Kentucky Derby promises an exciting race with a mix of strong favorites and compelling long shots. With potential for unsettled weather leading to slower track conditions, race-day dynamics could play a significant role in the outcome. Whether you’re backing the favorite or looking for value in the field, today’s race is set to be a thrilling contest.
WIN: Journalism +250
PLACE: Baeza +1400
SHOW: Chunk of Gold +3300
FOURTH: Luxor Café +750
These odds are courtesy of oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv.