Alex Palou will be the driver to beat again when the NTT IndyCar Series returns from a short break for the XPEL Grand Prix at Road America on Sunday, June 21, 2026. The four-time series champion opens the weekend as the betting favorite at +110 to win at the 4.014-mile Wisconsin road course. He also brings a 49-point championship lead into the second half of the season.
Below is a full breakdown of the latest 2026 Road America odds, the favorite, mid-tier value plays, and longshots on the longest circuit on the schedule.
Last Updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026
XPEL GRAND PRIX AT ROAD AMERICA DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Road America, Elkhart Lake, WI |
| When | Sunday, June 21 – 2:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Alex Palou Leads 2026 Road America Odds
Palou has set the standard in IndyCar all season. He has won four of the first nine races, including a victory in Detroit, and he arrives as the defending Road America winner. His three career wins here are the most by any active driver. Chip Ganassi Racing has also won five of the last seven races at the track, which speaks to the strength of his equipment.
The price is the problem. At +110, Palou's implied win probability sits near 47.6 percent. That leaves little margin in a 25-car field. His most recent start was a reminder of the risk. He started from the pole at World Wide Technology Raceway, then a fuel-strategy gamble dropped him to 17th. Road America also rewards several front-running teams, not just one. Still, the board has Palou on top for good reason, and his record here makes the short price defensible.
Among the favorites, Palou is the most likely winner. He combines the best car, the points lead, and the deepest history at this circuit. The case against the lean is simple, however. A clean run from Kyle Kirkwood or a Team Penske driver would test him. Another strategy miss like the one at Gateway would undo the whole bet. The lean is Palou, but the better value lives lower on the board.
2026 XPEL GRAND PRIX AT ROAD AMERICA – TOP ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Alex Palou | +110 |
| Kyle Kirkwood | +600 |
| Christian Lundgaard | +900 |
| David Malukas | +1000 |
| Pato O'Ward | +1200 |
| Josef Newgarden | +1200 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +1600 |
| Scott Dixon | +1800 |
| Will Power | +1800 |
| Felix Rosenqvist | +2200 |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 18, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest IndyCar Odds - Props
Mid-Tier Value at Road America
The most defensible Road America value sits below the top group. These are proven road-course drivers who avoid the favorite's premium. The names here range from +1600 to +2200.
Scott McLaughlin (+1600) brings stable Team Penske equipment and steady recent form. He finished third in the 2026 Indianapolis 500 and has led laps at Road America before. He has not yet won at this track, which keeps the price honest. His car still belongs near the front.
Scott Dixon (+1800) owns two Road America wins and has made more starts here than nearly anyone in the field. The veteran has not won in 2026, so the form question is fair. However, his Ganassi car shares the operation that produced Palou's pole and victory a year ago.
Will Power (+1800) is one of five drivers in this field to have qualified fastest at Road America, and he has won twice at the track. His qualifying ceiling matters here. No winner in the past 11 races has started deeper than ninth. The downside is that Power is still seeking his first win of 2026.
Felix Rosenqvist (+2200) is the reigning Indianapolis 500 champion and a former Road America winner. His Meyer Shank Racing entry is less consistent on road courses than the Penske and Ganassi cars, so the price reflects real risk. Even so, his ceiling is high enough to justify a smaller play.
Longshots and Road America Storylines
Louis Foster (+2800) won the pole for last year's Road America race and returns with another year at Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. He has yet to win in the series, so the longshot label fits. His qualifying speed at this specific track, though, gives him a path toward the front.
Marcus Ericsson (+3500) finished runner-up at the Bommarito 500 and has climbed the standings in recent weeks. The 2022 Indianapolis 500 winner has the closing experience to contend if his car finds road-course pace. His record at Road America is thinner than the mid-tier names, which explains the longer number.
Several storylines sit just off the betting board. Josef Newgarden (+1200) carries momentum after winning the most recent race at World Wide Technology Raceway, and he owns two Road America wins, as covered in our Bommarito 500 picks. Rookie Mick Schumacher will race an Indy car at Road America for the first time after earning Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year honors. Fellow rookie Caio Collet won the Indy NXT race at this track in 2025. Looming over the title fight is Laguna Seca, where Palou has won the past two events, which adds urgency for everyone chasing him.
2026 Road America Betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 XPEL Grand Prix at Road America?
Alex Palou is the favorite at +110. He leads the IndyCar Series championship by 49 points and is the defending Road America winner.
Who do you like to win at Road America?
The lean is Alex Palou, the most likely winner given his car, his points lead, and his three career wins at the track. The short +110 price carries risk, and a clean run from Kyle Kirkwood or a Team Penske driver would threaten him.
When is the 2026 Road America IndyCar race?
The XPEL Grand Prix at Road America is set for Sunday, June 21, 2026, with the green flag at 2:00 PM ET.
What channel is the Road America IndyCar race on?
The race will be broadcast on FOX. The 55-lap event is the longest road course on the NTT IndyCar Series schedule.
Who won the IndyCar race at Road America last year?
Alex Palou won the 2025 Road America race. It was part of a run of three victories in the past five events at the track.