Our Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction starts with who is missing. The Dallas Mavericks bring a three-game winning streak into Target Center on Thursday night, where the Minnesota Timberwolves have won four straight. Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 227.5, and both numbers have climbed since the open. The Wolves remain without Anthony Edwards, who is out after right knee surgery. That absence, and the defense that has covered for it, shapes both of the picks below.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves — Game Info
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis Minnesota |
| When | November 12 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
Availability moves this number more than anything else. Minnesota has ruled out Edwards, who had an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee in late October. Donte DiVincenzo is also out as he recovers from a torn right Achilles. Edwards was averaging 33.3 points per game when he went down. His last game was a 127-125 overtime loss at Cleveland, a spot we handicapped in our Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers preview. Since then, Minnesota is 5-2. LaMelo Ball has carried more of the playmaking at 6.0 assists per game, and Rudy Gobert leads the team with 12.1 rebounds per game.
Dallas is healthier at the top. Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg are both off the injury report, and Flagg is coming off 43 points in Monday’s 125-122 win over Indiana. Rookie Morez Johnson Jr. is probable with a shin contusion. However, Dereck Lively II remains out after foot surgery and has not played this season. Tarik Biberović and Sergio de Larrea are also out.
Minnesota is 8-3 and third in the Western Conference, while Dallas is 7-4 and ninth. The gap is wider underneath the records. Minnesota owns a +11.0 net rating, built on a 106.1 defensive rating that ranks first in the league per Basketball Reference team ratings. Dallas sits at +4.6, with a 115.8 offensive rating that ranks 12th. Both teams play close to league-average pace, at roughly 99 to 100 possessions per game.
Shooting profile tilts the matchup further. The Wolves are hitting 37.3 percent from three, compared with 34.4 percent for Dallas. The Mavericks also take threes on just 40.8 percent of their field-goal attempts, below the league average of 43.1 percent. As a result, Dallas leans on the paint, which is where Gobert does his best work. On the other end, the Mavericks’ 111.2 defensive rating ranks ninth, so this is a solid defense meeting a better one.
The schedule spot is close to neutral. Minnesota has been off since Sunday, while Dallas played Monday and opens a three-game road trip here. Neither team is on a back-to-back. Minnesota swept last season’s series 4-0 and closed it with a 124-94 win in Dallas on March 30. Both rosters have changed since then, so that history carries limited weight.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | +5.5 (-110) | +180 | O 227.5 (-110) |
| Timberwolves | -5.5 (-110) | -220 | U 227.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NBA Odds – Futures – Props
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mavericks | 54% | 46% | Timberwolves |
See the latest NBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction — How Have the Wolves Gone 5-2 Without Edwards?
Minnesota has answered the Edwards injury with defense. During its four-game winning streak, no opponent has scored more than 109 points, and two were held to 100. The Wolves also allow 34.6 three-point attempts per game, well below the league average of 37.9. In addition, Minnesota grabs 31.8 percent of its own misses, and that should test a Dallas frontcourt playing without Lively. Minnesota also takes care of the ball, with a 13.4 percent turnover rate against 14.2 percent for Dallas. Fewer giveaways mean fewer easy transition chances for Flagg and Irving.
The market leans the same way, though quietly. This spread opened at Minnesota -5 and has moved to -5.5, even though 54 percent of spread bets are on Dallas. That is mild reverse line movement, with the number moving away from the ticket majority. At -110, the price asks for a 52.4 percent win rate. Meanwhile, the net-rating gap between these teams, plus a modest home edge, points to a margin closer to seven or eight points.
The case for Dallas is real. The Mavericks are 7-4 against the spread, and Flagg is playing at a high level. Minnesota is 10-1 against the spread, and a run like that tends to push numbers higher than the underlying play supports. Without Edwards, the Wolves can also stall in the half court. Still, all three Dallas wins in this streak came at home, and the Mavericks are 2-2 on the road.
The Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction — What Happens When Minnesota Takes Away the Three?
The total has risen from 225 to 227.5, but the matchup points lower. Dallas takes a below-average share of its shots from three, and Minnesota allows fewer three-point attempts than most defenses. Matching each offense against the opposing defense at near-average pace projects a final in the low 220s. Minnesota’s 117.1 offensive rating also includes the four games Edwards played. Dallas games, meanwhile, have gone under in eight of their last ten. During Minnesota’s four-game streak, three of the four opponents finished at 107 points or fewer.
The risk is the market. A 2.5-point climb from the opener runs against this read, and that warrants caution. Dallas scored 125 and 130 in its last two games, and Minnesota’s offensive rebounding creates extra possessions. Three-point variance can also swing any basketball total. This pick leans on the same Minnesota defense as the spread, so the two plays are not independent.
The Pick: Under 227.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Minnesota’s defense is the thread through this card, and it has held up without its best player. Timberwolves -5.5 (-110) is our top play, backed by a wide net-rating edge and a line that moved toward Minnesota against the spread ticket count. Under 227.5 (-110) is the second play. It rests on a Wolves defense that limits three-point volume against a Dallas offense in the middle of the league.