The Colorado Avalanche open a four-game road trip Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena. The Toronto Maple Leafs are trying to stop a three-game losing streak. Colorado is priced at -160 on the moneyline with the total set at 6.5. The goaltending matchup shapes nearly all of that price. Below, we break down both creases, the special teams gap and each blue line’s injury questions. Then we land on two plays for this Avalanche vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs — Game Info
| Where | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto Ontario |
| When | November 10 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | TSN4, TVAS, Altitude |
Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Start in goal, because that is where this price comes from. Neither starter was confirmed Tuesday morning. Mackenzie Blackwood and Sergei Bobrovsky are both listed as unconfirmed, though each is the projected starter. Treat this read as provisional until the morning skate settles it.
Blackwood arrives in form. He is 9-3-1 with a 2.60 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage, and he stopped all 27 shots in Saturday’s 4-0 win over Detroit. Bobrovsky’s numbers tell a different story. He is 3-7-2 with a 3.34 GAA and an .886 save percentage. He started Saturday’s 4-2 loss to Montreal, while Anthony Stolarz took Sunday’s 4-0 home loss to New Jersey. That leaves Bobrovsky on two days of rest.
The form lines diverge as well. Toronto is 8-9-2 and seventh in the Atlantic Division, and it has lost five of its last six. Colorado is 10-6-2 and scores 4.00 goals per game, third in the league. Martin Necas had two goals and two assists in Saturday’s shutout, and Nathan MacKinnon and Makar each added a goal and two assists. Toronto allows 3.32 per game, while Colorado allows 3.06. The schedule spot is mixed. Toronto played a weekend back-to-back, while Colorado has been idle since Saturday but crosses two time zones to open the trip.
Special teams are Toronto’s clearest edge. The Leafs rank fifth in both categories, with a 28.6% power play and an 85.9% penalty kill. Colorado runs a 23.3% power play and a 78.2% penalty kill. In contrast, Colorado owns the better five-on-five profile by most measures.
Injuries cloud both blue lines. Cale Makar left Sunday’s practice for precautionary reasons and was due for reevaluation Monday, though he was expected to travel. Josh Manson remains out. For Toronto, Morgan Rielly is day-to-day after a lower-body injury Saturday. Jack Roslovic and Colton Sissons are also day-to-day, and Kirill Marchenko is week-to-week.
The only prior meeting went Toronto’s way. The Leafs won 6-3 in Denver on October 10, with William Nylander posting five points and Auston Matthews four. Colorado went 0-for-5 on the power play that night. Blackwood allowed five goals before a late empty-netter sealed it. That result matters as context, but it came early in the season and before Toronto’s current slide. Neither club looks much like it did a month ago, so we weight recent form over that one game.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | -1.5 (+153) | -160 | O 6.5 (-115) |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-177) | +135 | U 6.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of November 10, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — Can Bobrovsky Slow the League’s Third-Ranked Offense?
Build the total from the crease out, and the case for goals starts with Bobrovsky. An .886 save percentage over 12 starts is not a small-sample blip. It is a sustained run of soft results. He now faces an offense averaging 4.00 goals per game. Meanwhile, Toronto’s team defense allows 3.32 per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. Blackwood is solid but not dominant, and Colorado concedes just over three goals a night itself. Add the two teams’ scoring and allowing rates, and both sides of the ledger land near seven goals.
Special teams push the same way. Toronto’s fifth-ranked power play meets a Colorado kill sitting 14th. The Avalanche scored three power-play goals Saturday, so their own unit is trending up. Game state adds a further lift. Colorado is favored, and a trailing Toronto team will pull its goaltender late, which turns one-goal games into two-goal games. The last meeting ended with an empty-net goal. Also, a game tied after 60 minutes adds at least one more goal for totals purposes. The market has nudged this way too. The over moved from -112 at the open to -115 at the same number, a small shift that confirms rather than drives the read.
The case against is real. Toronto has scored two goals across its last two games combined. Rielly and Roslovic being out thins its depth further. Blackwood is coming off a shutout, and if Makar sits, Colorado loses a defenseman who scored on the power play Saturday. At -115, the price asks for about 53.5% to break even. Still, with the weaker goaltender in the building and both power plays live, we rate this a strong play.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-115)
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — What Does Makar’s Practice Exit Mean for Colorado?
The side follows the same crease logic, so this read is not independent of the first. Colorado is the stronger five-on-five team. According to Last Word on Hockey’s five-on-five expected-goals figures, the Avalanche generate 2.75 expected goals per 60 and allow 2.42. Toronto generates 2.19 and allows 2.58. Toronto has also dropped five of its last six, and the underlying numbers suggest a structural problem rather than bad luck. The -160 price implies roughly 61.5%. The line moved from -155 to -160, which agrees with the read, though the earlier number is gone.
The risk is concentrated in Makar and in Toronto’s special teams. If Makar sits, Colorado loses 21 points from its blue line and the gap narrows. Toronto also won the October meeting by three goals. That is why the full-game moneyline, which includes overtime and the shootout, is the vehicle rather than the puck line. A two-goal margin is asking a lot against a power play this efficient, and this read stays provisional until both goalies and Makar are confirmed.
The Pick: Avalanche Moneyline (-160)
Our Final Word on Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs
This game turns on two unconfirmed inputs, so check the starting goalies and Makar’s status before puck drop. For more on Colorado’s recent form, see our Predators vs Avalanche prediction from last week.
The Over 6.5 at -115 is our top play because Bobrovsky’s .886 save percentage meets the league’s third-highest-scoring offense. The Avalanche moneyline at -160 is our second play. Colorado’s clear five-on-five edge meets a Toronto team that has lost five of its last six.