No division in the NFL is generating as much noise as the NFC North is right now. All of Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay boast winning records after the first nine weeks of the season, with a staggering combined record of 25-9.
There is a chance that all teams manage to make it through to the postseason if each finishes as one of the seven best teams in the NFC. It would mark the first time that every member of a division is represented in the playoffs since the 2002 restructuring, but, with divisional matchups still to play, it feels highly improbable.
Consequently, that leaves plenty of room for speculation over which teams might miss out on the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion. And a quick look at the current landscape of prediction markets, namely who will qualify for the postseason, reflects who traders believe is the most likely out of the quartet to miss out.
Chicago thought to be leading contenders
Following the 31-7 loss to Green Bay in October, a few fans were skeptical about the Bears’ ceiling this season. But a four-game winning streak which included victories over last season’s Super Bowl teams, Seattle and New England, has boosted confidence in Chicago, with an 88% implied probability of the team playing postseason football.
In fact, Caleb Williams’ team is believed to be the most likely Super Bowl contender in the NFC North. The Bears are listed at $0.13 (13%) to lift the Lombardi at Super Bowl LXI on this Kalshi promo code page, meaning a ‘Yes’ contract costs 13 cents and pays $1 if Chicago becomes champions. Availability varies by state, and the page lists where Kalshi can be used.
However, the Bears face a tough end to the season with a pair of games against the Lions to navigate, along with matchups against the Bills, Packers, and Vikings. Results in those games will ultimately determine whether they have championship credentials or not.
Detroit looks strong, but with a glaring weakness
A four-game winning streak for Detroit will have the Lions feeling very good about their chances this year. That run has included victories over the Packers and Vikings too, which will only benefit Dan Campbell’s team when they meet the same teams again in the home stretch of the season.
The Lions’ offense has been humming all season, with their 7.8 passing yards per attempt among the best in the league. Meanwhile, only Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III have more rushing yards than Jahmyr Gibbs, who has 847 after eight games.
Despite that, prediction markets are not as high on the Lions as the Bears, with Detroit’s implied probability of reaching the postseason currently 73%. It likely comes down to the team’s defense, as no team has allowed more passing yards (2,265). If they can’t fix that issue, then that will cost the team in the long run.
Minnesota searching for improvements on offense
Like the Lions, Minnesota is excelling on one side of the ball, but not the other. Brian Flores’ defense is among the best in the league, allowing 951 rushing yards and the fewest passing yards, but questions remain on offense, where Kyler Murray is still trying to connect with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, despite the quarterback’s former teammate Chris Streveler believing that Kevin O’Connell could bring the best out of the 29-year-old.
The Vikings have only scored more than 20 points in three of their games so far this year, but the team still has a 62% chance of reaching the postseason according to prediction markets. Defensive performances are a big part of that, but so too is the schedule, with Minnesota having fewer divisional games remaining than Chicago and Detroit.
Green Bay on the rise but with work to do
Green Bay might have the lowest chance of reaching the playoffs in the NFC North as things stand (67%), but the team is on the rise following a slow start to the season. Jordan Love’s 372-yard, three touchdown game against New England was one of his best this season, which bodes well for the Packers.
Matt LaFleur’s team still needs to play the Vikings, Rams, Bills, Bears, Texans, and Lions in the second half of the season. But they are yet to add Micah Parsons to their active roster, with the edge rusher gearing up for his return following a torn ACL in December 2025. Green Bay might be at the bottom of the North as things stand, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism heading into the business end of the regular season.