Our Islanders vs Sharks prediction starts in the crease, where Ilya Sorokin and Yaroslav Askarov project to meet at SAP Center on Monday night. New York sits at -140 on the moneyline with a total of 6.5, and both clubs arrive on losing skids. Below, we work through the goaltending gap, the line movement since the open and the special-teams picture before landing on two plays.
New York Islanders vs. San Jose Sharks — Game Info
| Where | SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose CA |
| When | November 9 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | MSG Sportsnet, ESPN+ |
New York Islanders vs. San Jose Sharks Betting Preview
Neither starter was confirmed at the time of writing, so this read is provisional. Daily Faceoff lists Sorokin and Askarov as the projected starters, both unconfirmed, and previews on both sides expect the same pairing. Sorokin is 6-4-1 with a 2.64 goals-against average and a .909 save percentage. He made a season-high 45 saves in Saturday’s 5-4 overtime loss to New Jersey. Askarov, meanwhile, is 4-8-0 with a 3.35 GAA and an .885 save percentage. If Semyon Varlamov starts for New York, or Alex Nedeljkovic gets the call for San Jose, the read changes.
The Islanders are 7-6-3 with 17 points. They have dropped three straight (0-2-1), with a loss to Carolina and an overtime defeat to New Jersey last week. Monday opens a three-game California trip that continues in Los Angeles and Anaheim. Bo Horvat and defenseman Matthew Schaefer lead the team with 16 points apiece. However, the blue line is thin. Ryan Pulock remains out with an upper-body injury, and Alexander Romanov is on injured reserve.
San Jose is 7-11-1 with 15 points, and the Sharks’ minus-21 goal differential ranks fourth-worst in the NHL. The Sharks have lost five straight and are 3-7-0 over their last 10. That skid closed with road losses in Los Angeles, Minnesota and Dallas. Macklin Celebrini leads the club with 21 points, including three assists Saturday in Dallas. Both teams had Sunday off, so neither side is on a back-to-back.
The market has drifted in one direction since the open. New York’s moneyline moved from -130 to -140, and its puck line price shortened from +190 to +180. The total, meanwhile, climbed from 6 to 6.5. Taken together, the book now expects a slightly more comfortable Islanders win and a bit more scoring than it did on Sunday. Neither move came with a reported injury or lineup change, which is normal. The question for bettors is whether those moves reflect real information or simply the weight of one-way action on the favorite.
New York Islanders vs. San Jose Sharks Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | -1.5 (+180) | -140 | O 6.5 (-103) |
| Sharks | +1.5 (-220) | +120 | U 6.5 (-117) |
Odds accurate as of November 9, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Islanders vs. Sharks Prediction — Does Sorokin’s Unbeaten Regulation Mark vs. San Jose Hold?
Goaltending is the cleanest edge on the board. Sorokin’s .909 save percentage sits well above Askarov’s .885, and that gap is worth real goals over 60 minutes. San Jose also allows 3.58 goals per game, one of the worst marks in the league. Its penalty kill sits at 76.5%, and the Sharks gave up five power-play goals across Friday and Saturday. Sorokin also owns San Jose historically. One preview lists him at 5-0-3 in eight career games against the Sharks, with a .927 save percentage. New York swept last season’s series, including a 2-1 overtime win at SAP Center in March.
The market has moved toward New York since the open. The Islanders opened at -130 and now sit at -140, while San Jose drifted from +110 to +120. However, that move runs with the crowd, since the feed shows the large majority of moneyline tickets on New York. A move with the public is expected and carries little signal on its own. So the case rests on the research rather than on market confirmation, which makes this a lean rather than a strong play. At -140, the price implies 58.3%, and our read of the goaltending gap clears that number.
There is a real case against it. The Islanders were badly outshot by New Jersey, and Sorokin needed 45 saves just to reach overtime. They are also on the first night of a western trip with a thin blue line. Still, we prefer the moneyline over the puck line. Last season’s two meetings ended 4-3 and 2-1, and a large share of hockey games finish within one goal. The +180 on -1.5 asks for a margin this matchup has not shown.
The Pick: Islanders Moneyline (-140)
Islanders vs. Sharks Prediction — Who Breaks Through When Two Bottom-Ten Offenses Collide?
Neither attack has done much this season. New York scores 2.88 goals per game and averages 25.4 shots, near the bottom of the league in both. San Jose is worse at 2.47 goals per game. San Jose’s leaky penalty kill is the obvious over case, yet the Islanders’ power play ranks near the bottom of the league at 14.58%. Their own penalty kill, at 85.71%, ranks among the league’s best. That limits the special-teams scoring that usually pushes a total higher. Last season’s meetings produced seven goals and three goals.
The market disagrees, and that is the warning here. The total opened at 6 and moved to 6.5, with the over getting cheaper along the way. Askarov’s .885 is a real over input, and empty-net goals late in a one-goal game can push a total over. This rests on Sorokin starting, the same input behind our first pick. So the edge is thin, and the under at -117 needs 53.9% to break even.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-117)
Our Final Word on Islanders vs. Sharks
Confirm the starters before puck drop. If either backup draws the start, both reads shift, because both plays lean on the same goaltending gap. With Sorokin in net, this sets up as a low-event game in which New York has the better goalie and the better penalty kill. San Jose, in contrast, needs its power play to do the heavy lifting against one of the league’s stingier units.
We like the Islanders Moneyline at -140 because Sorokin holds a clear edge over Askarov and has never lost to San Jose in regulation. We also like Under 6.5 at -117 because two bottom-ten offenses meet with New York’s top-five penalty kill blunting San Jose’s best scoring route.