This Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt prediction looks at a big non-conference number in Nashville. No. 24 Vanderbilt is a 17.5-point favorite over Wake Forest, with the total sitting at 155. Both teams are 1-0 after lopsided openers, and both are breaking in mostly new rosters. The market has priced this like last December’s rout. The real question is whether that number fits two teams that look very different now. Our pick follows the matchup breakdown below.
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville Tennessee |
| When | November 5 – 6:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
Vanderbilt opened the season at No. 24 in the preseason AP poll after a 27-9 season. That run ended with a two-point Round of 32 loss to Nebraska. Mark Byington still has his centerpiece in junior guard Tyler Tanner, who averaged 19.5 points last season. Tanner opened this year with 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting in a 93-47 win over Bellarmine.
However, this is not last year’s Vanderbilt team. Tyler Nickel left for the NBA draft and Duke Miles ran out of eligibility. Byington rebuilt around transfers such as Ace Glass from Washington State and Bangot Dak from Colorado. Berke Buyuktuncel from Nebraska and Sebastian Williams-Adams from Auburn add size up front. The roster is bigger and more athletic, but Byington has said it may take time to grow.
Wake Forest went through an even deeper rebuild. Steve Forbes lost his top eight players from an 18-17 team that finished 13th in the ACC. He brought in 12 newcomers, including eight transfers. Merrimack transfer Kevair Kennedy, the reigning MAAC Player of the Year, runs the offense. Freshman Gavin Placide scored 20 points on 8-of-11 shooting in Monday’s 83-62 win over Maryland Eastern Shore.
The last meeting is the storyline the market cannot ignore. Vanderbilt beat Wake Forest 98-67 in Winston-Salem last December, with Nickel hitting eight threes. Still, almost nobody who decided that game is playing in this one. Availability is the one open question. Kansas transfer Jamari McDowell was reported out with plantar fasciitis in October, but a later preview listed him as a likely starter. Treat his status as unresolved until Wake Forest confirms it.
Experience cuts both ways in this matchup. Vanderbilt carries 12 newcomers of its own, and 11 of its 15 players are underclassmen. Vanderbilt also lost an exhibition 109-96 at Miami before the opener. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has size to compete inside, with seven players listed at 6-foot-8 or taller. Forbes leaned on a 10-man rotation last season and is projected to go nine or 10 deep again. That depth matters early in the year, when rotations are still settling and foul trouble can expose a thin bench.
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | +17.5 (-110) | +1000 | O 155.0 (-110) |
| Vanderbilt | -17.5 (-110) | -2200 | U 155.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAB Odds – Futures – Props
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Wake Forest | 40% | 60% | Vanderbilt |
See the latest College Basketball Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt Prediction — Where Did the Moneyline Money Go?
Start with the price. The spread opened at 17.5 and has not moved, even with 60% of spread tickets on Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, the moneyline tells a sharper story. Vanderbilt opened at -5000 and has drifted to -2200, while Wake Forest shortened from +1300 to +1000. That move came with 94% of moneyline tickets on Vanderbilt. Money moving against that kind of ticket count is the footprint of reverse line movement toward Wake Forest.
The ratings back that market read. Early Barttorvik ratings rank Vanderbilt 22nd and Wake Forest 81st, with Vanderbilt’s defense 14th nationally. That is a real gap. Even so, the same model projects Vanderbilt to win by roughly 12 points, well short of this number. A 17.5-point spread asks a young, reshaped Vanderbilt roster to play close to its ceiling in its second real game. Wake Forest also protects the ball, with a 15.5% turnover rate in its opener. At -110, the spread needs only a 52.4% hit rate to break even.
The case against is serious. Vanderbilt forced turnovers on about a third of Bellarmine’s possessions and crashed the offensive glass at a top-35 rate. Memorial Gymnasium is a tough room for a road team using its first-ever lineup away from home. If Tanner controls the game the way he did last December, a 20-point margin is very possible. One-game samples are noisy, and both teams’ numbers will swing. Still, the number looks inflated by a result that this Wake Forest roster had no part in.
The Pick: Wake Forest +17.5 (-110)
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt Prediction — What Do Two 72-Possession Paces Add Up To?
Tempo is the cleanest totals input here. Barttorvik has Vanderbilt at 72.2 adjusted possessions and Wake Forest at 71.9. Both sit in the middle of Division I rather than at the fast end. There is no pace mismatch to push this game into a track meet. In contrast, the total opened at 154.5 and ticked up to 155. That prices in a lot of shot-making from two rosters still learning each other. The same model projects about 150 combined points.
The risk is efficiency. Both teams shot well in their openers, and Vanderbilt has the size to turn misses into second chances. Last December’s meeting produced 165 points. However, both openers came against overmatched opponents, and Wake Forest made only 7 of 23 threes against Maryland Eastern Shore. This pick leans on the same projection as the spread pick, so the two are not independent reads. A lower-scoring game would also help the underdog. The upside of the under is that it does not need Wake Forest to compete. It only needs two new rosters to look like new rosters, with some empty trips and early-season rust on both ends.
The Pick: Under 155.0 (-110)
Our Final Word on Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is the better team, and nothing here argues otherwise. The moneyline at -2200 implies about a 95.7% win chance, and that feels fair for a ranked team at home. On the other side, the +1000 price implies roughly a 9.1% upset chance, which is about right too. The value question is about margin, not winner. A market that leaned on last season’s 31-point blowout has given Wake Forest extra room, and early money on the moneyline points the same way. For more early-season previews, see our Wofford vs. Tennessee prediction and our Miami vs. Florida prediction.
Wake Forest +17.5 (-110) is our top play because the spread sits well above the model projection and the moneyline moved toward Wake Forest. Under 155.0 (-110) is the second play, since two middle-of-the-pack tempos do not justify a total in the mid-150s.
NCAAB Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt FAQ: November 5, 2026
What time does the Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt game start?
Wake Forest and Vanderbilt tip off at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. That is 5:00 PM local time in Nashville, where Vanderbilt hosts the game. It is the second game of the season for both teams after each won its opener on Monday, November 2.
What channel is the Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt game on?
The Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt game airs nationally on ESPN2 on Thursday, November 5. Coverage begins at the 6:00 PM ET tip-off. The non-conference matchup pits an ACC program against a ranked SEC team, giving it a national television window early in the season.
Where are Wake Forest and Vanderbilt playing?
Wake Forest and Vanderbilt play at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, Tennessee, Vanderbilt’s home arena. This is a true road game for Wake Forest. Last season’s meeting was played in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, where Vanderbilt won comfortably on Wake Forest’s home floor.
Is Wake Forest or Vanderbilt ranked?
Vanderbilt is ranked No. 24 in the AP Top 25, the poll’s current preseason edition. Wake Forest is unranked entering the game. Vanderbilt is one of seven SEC teams in that poll, which Florida leads at No. 1 heading into the first weeks of the season.
Who won the last meeting between Wake Forest and Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt won the last meeting 98-67 at Wake Forest on December 21, 2025. Tyler Nickel made eight three-pointers and scored 26 points for Vanderbilt in the 31-point win. Vanderbilt led 54-37 at halftime and was unbeaten at 12-0 at the time of that game.