Our Villanova vs. Notre Dame prediction covers a season opener unlike any other. The two programs meet in the Eternal City Tip-Off in Rome, the first NCAA Division I regular-season game played in Italy. Villanova is a 7-point favorite with the total at 147. Both rosters were heavily rebuilt over the summer, and neither team has played a game that counts. Below, we work through the ratings, the availability questions and the line movement before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: November 1, 2026
Villanova vs. Notre Dame — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Palazzo dello Sport, Rome Italy |
| When | November 1 – 9:30 AM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Villanova vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
This is a neutral-site game. Notre Dame carries the home designation on the board, but neither team is playing in its own building. Treat that label as a formality rather than a home-court edge.
Villanova enters Kevin Willard’s second season with real expectations. Villanova went 15-5 in Big East play last season. They reached the NCAA Tournament before falling to Utah State 86-76 in the first round. Big East coaches picked Villanova third this preseason, behind UConn and St. John’s. Tyler Perkins, who averaged 13.7 points last season, is the returning centerpiece.
The supporting cast is mostly new. Devin Royal arrived from Ohio State and led Villanova in scoring through the exhibition slate. Jake Fiegen came from Cornell, and Luigi Suigo, a 7-foot-3 Italian freshman, gives Villanova rare size. Suigo is also raw. He picked up two fouls in the first 76 seconds of an exhibition against George Mason.
Notre Dame is in a far shakier spot. Micah Shrewsberry is 41-56 across three seasons, and Notre Dame went 13-18 with a 4-14 ACC record last season. ACC media picked Notre Dame 16th of 18 this fall. Leading scorers Markus Burton and Jalen Haralson both left in the portal. Shrewsberry rebuilt around transfers, including Winthrop center Logan Duncomb, the Big South Player of the Year, and Penn wing Ethan Roberts. Braeden Shrewsberry returns after averaging 11.9 points and shooting 40.2% from three. Gonzaga transfer Braeden Smith and Rutgers forward Bryce Dortch also join a roster that turned over almost completely. That leaves Shrewsberry piecing together chemistry on the fly, and Rome is the first test.
The Barttorvik preseason ratings frame the gap. Villanova rates 31st nationally, with the 23rd-best adjusted offense and the 43rd-best adjusted defense. Notre Dame rates 82nd, with its offense 74th and its defense 98th. KenPom has Villanova at No. 32. Neither school appears in the preseason AP Top 25, although Villanova received votes.
Availability is the swing factor. Villanova forward Kwame Evans Jr. has been day-to-day with a left leg injury and has missed exhibition action. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported in mid-October that Villanova expected him ready for Rome, but his status remained unresolved in previews this week. Matt Hodge is still working back from ACL surgery and is not expected to play. On the other side, Duncomb missed Notre Dame’s final exhibition with a leg injury. A Yahoo Sports game preview lists him as day-to-day but expected to play.
Villanova vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | -7.0 (-115) | -330 | O 147.0 (-110) |
| Notre Dame | +7.0 (-105) | +265 | U 147.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAB Odds – Futures – Props
Villanova vs. Notre Dame — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Villanova | 69% | 31% | Notre Dame |
See the latest College Basketball Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Villanova vs. Notre Dame Prediction — How Thin Is Villanova’s Frontcourt in Rome?
Start with the ratings. Barttorvik puts Villanova about 9.5 points per 100 possessions better than Notre Dame on a neutral floor. A college game runs well short of 100 possessions per team, so that gap converts to a margin under the current number. In other words, the projection and the price sit close together, with a slight lean toward the underdog. The price helps too. The underdog side carries cheaper juice than the standard -110, which pulls its break-even rate below 52.4%.
The market adds a quiet signal. The spread opened at Villanova -7.5 and now sits at -7.0, even though 69% of spread tickets are on Villanova. That is a half-point move against the ticket count. However, the juice on Villanova climbed to -115, which tempers the read. It is a modest signal, not steam.
Villanova’s depth gives the move some logic. Evans is unresolved, Hodge is out, and Suigo has shown he can get into early foul trouble. If Evans sits and Suigo picks up fouls, Villanova leans on small lineups against Duncomb inside. Still, the case for the favorite is real. Royal and Perkins give Villanova two proven scorers. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has far more questions than answers. This read is provisional on Evans and Duncomb. A healthy Villanova frontcourt would weaken it.
The Pick: Notre Dame +7.0 (-105)
Villanova vs. Notre Dame Prediction — Will Villanova’s Exhibition Shooting Follow It to Rome?
Villanova shot 10-of-31 from three in its win over George Mason, per the Inquirer, with Fiegen going 1-of-9. Willard expects better, but this is a new group still sorting out its rotation. Notre Dame’s exhibitions also stayed modest on the scoreboard, according to that same preview: a 75-65 loss at Dayton and a 71-63 win over DePaul. Both of those combined scores land below 147.
The market leans the same way, if gently. The total opened at 147.5 and has dipped to 147.0. Two rebuilt rosters, an overseas opener and unfamiliar lineups all argue for some sloppiness on offense. The risk is that sloppiness cuts the other way. Turnovers can mean extra possessions and transition points, and Notre Dame’s returning shooters can heat up quickly. This edge is thinner than the first, and it shares the same early-season uncertainty.
The Pick: Under 147.0 (-110)
Our Final Word on Villanova vs. Notre Dame
Villanova is the better team on paper, and nothing here argues otherwise. The question is price. With the projection sitting near the number and real lineup uncertainty on the favorite’s side, the points carry more value than the favorite. The moneyline tells the same story from the other direction. Villanova at -330 implies a 76.7% break-even, which leaves little room for value on the favorite. The first-half market prices Villanova -4.0 with a 69.0 total, in line with the full-game numbers. We pass on those lines because they rest on the same inputs as our two plays. For more on both programs from last season, see our breakdown of Villanova’s February game against Butler. We also looked at Notre Dame’s February matchup with Duke.
Notre Dame +7.0 (-105) is our top play because the ratings project a margin inside the number and the spread moved against the tickets. The Under 147.0 (-110) is our second play because both rebuilt offenses have shown uneven shooting and the total has drifted down from the open.
NCAAB Villanova vs. Notre Dame FAQ: November 1, 2026
What time does the Villanova vs. Notre Dame game start?
Villanova and Notre Dame tip off at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026. That is 3:30 p.m. local time in Rome. The game is the regular-season opener for both programs. The men’s game also opens a doubleheader, with the two schools’ women’s teams playing afterward.
What channel is the Villanova vs. Notre Dame game on?
The Villanova vs. Notre Dame game airs nationally on FOX. Kevin Kugler handles play-by-play, Bill Raftery is the analyst and Kim Adams works as the reporter. The 9:30 a.m. ET tip puts the broadcast in a Sunday morning window in the United States.
Where are Villanova and Notre Dame playing?
Villanova and Notre Dame play at the Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, Italy, as part of the Eternal City Tip-Off. It is the first NCAA Division I regular-season basketball game ever played in Italy, and neither team is on its home floor.
What conference are Villanova and Notre Dame in?
Villanova plays in the Big East, and Notre Dame plays in the ACC, so this is a non-conference game. Big East coaches picked Villanova third this preseason, behind UConn and St. John’s. ACC media picked Notre Dame 16th in the 18-team league.
What was Notre Dame’s record last season?
Notre Dame finished 13-18 last season, including a 4-14 record in ACC play. Head coach Micah Shrewsberry enters his fourth season at 41-56. He rebuilt the roster with transfers, including Winthrop center Logan Duncomb, the reigning Big South Player of the Year.