The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday as 7-point road favorites, and three of every four spread bets are backing New England. Meanwhile, the total has dropped two full points since opening. That combination drives our Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction. New England enters 4-3 and second in the AFC East. Miami sits 1-5 after finally earning its first win last week. Below, we break down the injuries, the line movement, and where the value sits.
Last Updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| When | Sunday, November 1 – 4:25 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
New England has scored 160 points and allowed 143 through seven games. However, the split between home and road is stark. The Patriots are 3-0 at home and 1-3 away from Foxborough. Their lone road win came at Buffalo, 29-26. The road losses came at Seattle (13-10), Jacksonville (35-6), and Chicago, where they fell 30-24 on Thursday Night Football on October 22. The upside is rest, as New England has had 10 days to prepare.
Miami has been the opposite of efficient. The Dolphins have scored just 98 points and allowed 157 through six games. They opened 0-5, took their bye, and then beat the Jets 28-25 last Sunday for their first win of the season. Still, Miami sits last in the AFC East, while Buffalo leads the division at 5-1.
The injury news hits New England’s offense hardest. The Patriots ruled out wide receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson on Saturday. Brown is dealing with knee and ankle issues, and Henderson has an illness. That leaves Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Efton Chism III as the only healthy receivers on the 53-man roster, with Ryan Miller elevated from the practice squad. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the backfield. Drake Maye practiced fully all week despite a right shoulder issue and carries no game designation.
On the Miami side, quarterback Malik Willis practiced fully through a groin issue and also carries no designation. Offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor is out with a concussion. Cornerbacks JuJu Brents and Reese Taylor are listed as questionable. The last meeting was lopsided. New England beat Miami 38-10 on January 4, 2026, as Stevenson ran for three touchdowns.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -7 (-110) | -370 | O 42.5 (-115) |
| Dolphins | +7 (-110) | +290 | U 42.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, November 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Patriots | 76% | 24% | Dolphins |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction — Is a Touchdown Too Much for a Short-Handed Road Favorite?
The spread opened at Patriots -7 and has not moved off that number all week. The only change is the price, which shifted from -115 to -110 on New England. Meanwhile, the moneyline crept from -360 to -370. With 76 percent of spread bets on the Patriots, the market has had every reason to push this line to 7.5. It hasn’t. Holding a key number against lopsided public support suggests the market is comfortable taking Patriots money at 7.
The case for New England is real. Miami allows more than 26 points per game, and the Patriots hold clear edges in roster quality and rest. They also beat this opponent by 28 points in January.
However, laying a full touchdown on the road is a different ask for this team. New England has scored just 69 points in four road games, an average of about 17 per game. Now the offense loses its top receiver and its second running back in the same week. A thin receiver room makes it harder to build a margin. In contrast, Miami just showed signs of life in its win over the Jets. Given the road profile and the injuries, the number looks a little too high.
The Pick: Dolphins +7 (-110)
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction — Is the Falling Total Telling Us Something?
The total opened at 44.5 and now sits at 42.5. That two-point drop is meaningful in the NFL, where 41 to 44 is a dense scoring band. Miami averages just over 16 points per game and has scored 13 or fewer in four of its six games. New England’s road scoring has also been modest. Without Brown, the Patriots have leaned on heavier two-tight-end looks with Hunter Henry, which tends to shorten games and reduce possessions.
Still, the over has a case. Miami’s defense has allowed 157 points, and the Dolphins’ last two games produced 55 and 53 combined points. If Maye finds his tight ends early, New England could post a number on its own. On balance, though, two limited offenses and a run-heavy Patriots plan point toward a lower-scoring afternoon.
The Pick: Under 42.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No bonus market stands out here. The Patriots moneyline at -370 risks a lot for a small return on a team that is 1-3 on the road. In contrast, the Dolphins at +290 need an outright win from a 1-5 team. The better value lives on the spread and the total. Both picks also work together, since a lower-scoring game generally helps the team getting seven points.
For more analysis from this week, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
Our Patriots vs. Dolphins picks:
- Spread: Dolphins +7 (-110)
- Total: Under 42.5 (-105)
NFL Patriots vs. Dolphins FAQ: Sunday November 1, 2026
What time does the Patriots vs. Dolphins game start?
The New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins game kicks off at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026. It is a late-afternoon AFC East matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, with New England playing on the road against its division rival.
What channel is the Patriots vs. Dolphins game on?
The Patriots vs. Dolphins game airs nationally on CBS, with kickoff set for 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1. Viewers in the local markets can also stream the game on Paramount+, which carries the local CBS station feed for subscribers.
Where are the Patriots and Dolphins playing?
The Patriots and Dolphins are playing at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, the home of the Miami Dolphins. New England makes the trip south for its first meeting of the 2026 season with Miami, an AFC East division rival.
Who won the last meeting between the Patriots and Dolphins?
The New England Patriots won the last meeting, beating the Miami Dolphins 38-10 on January 4, 2026. That game was the regular-season finale of the 2025 season, and Rhamondre Stevenson led the way with three rushing touchdowns for New England.
Where do the Patriots and Dolphins stand in the AFC East?
The Patriots are second in the AFC East at 4-3, behind the Buffalo Bills at 5-1. The Dolphins are last in the division at 1-5, trailing the New York Jets at 2-5. Miami earned its first win of the season last week against the Jets.