No. 11 Texas returns to Austin on Saturday night riding the momentum of a statement win over Ole Miss, while Mississippi State arrives on a three-game skid and without its starting quarterback. The Longhorns are 20.5-point favorites with a total of 50.5, and the number has barely moved since it opened. That stability says a lot about how the market views this SEC matchup. Below, we break down the line, the quarterback situation in Starkville, and where we see value against the spread and on the total.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026
Mississippi State vs. Texas — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin TX |
| When | Saturday, October 31 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mississippi State vs. Texas Betting Preview
Texas sits at 5-2 overall and 2-2 in SEC play. The Longhorns dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma and Florida before bouncing back with a 34-27 win over Ole Miss last weekend. That victory pushed them to No. 11 in the AP poll and kept their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Raleek Brown powered the offense with 157 rushing yards. Still, the win was far from clean. Arch Manning threw two interceptions, and turnovers have been a recurring problem for this offense.
The injury report adds another layer. Preseason All-America left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season after knee surgery. Edge rusher Colin Simmons, who has 10.5 sacks this season, missed the Ole Miss game with an ankle injury and is not expected to suit up again. Losing your best pass rusher and your blindside protector in the same week is not trivial, even against an overmatched opponent.
Mississippi State is 4-3 overall and 2-3 in the SEC. Jeff Lebby’s team opened 4-0, but it has lost three straight, including a 31-0 shutout loss to LSU. The bigger blow came this week. Starting quarterback Kamario Taylor was ruled out for the season and will need surgery. Lebby has not named a replacement. The choice is between Billy Puckett, a walk-on who started the LSU loss, and transfer AJ Swann, who has not taken a snap this season.
Texas leads the all-time series 4-2. The Longhorns won last year’s meeting 45-38 in a shootout, so this Mississippi State program has shown it can hang with Texas on the scoreboard. However, that version of the Bulldogs had a healthy quarterback.
Mississippi State vs. Texas Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | +20.5 (-110) | +800 | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Texas | -20.5 (-110) | -1400 | U 50.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 31, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Mississippi State vs. Texas — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mississippi State | 72% | 28% | Texas |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction — Is Three Touchdowns Too Much to Lay?
The case for Texas is simple. The Longhorns have the better roster at nearly every position, they are at home, and Mississippi State is starting either a walk-on or a quarterback who has not played all year. Opposing defenses can load up against the run and dare an unproven passer to beat them. In addition, the Bulldogs managed zero points against LSU, which shows how low their floor can sink. If the Texas defense forces early turnovers, this one could get out of hand quickly.
On the other hand, Texas has not been a team that buries opponents. Even last week’s quality win over Ole Miss came down to a seven-point margin. Manning’s turnover issues keep giving opponents extra possessions. Meanwhile, the offensive line is now without Goosby, and the pass rush may be without Simmons. That combination makes a 21-point margin harder to reach. The market has also nudged toward the Bulldogs. The spread opened at three touchdowns and has ticked down half a point, while roughly 72% of spread bets are on Mississippi State.
Big home favorites in conference play tend to take their foot off the gas once the game is in hand. Texas has little reason to run up the score in the fourth quarter with a tough November ahead. We expect a Texas win, but not by this much.
The Pick: Mississippi State +20.5 (-110)
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction — Can the Bulldogs Hold Up Their End of the Scoring?
For this total to go over, Mississippi State likely needs to contribute 17 points or more. That is a tall order for a backup quarterback facing one of the SEC’s better defenses on the road. Texas, meanwhile, has leaned on its run game lately. A steady diet of Brown carries keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. Projections point to a modest scoreline, with College Football News forecasting a 34-13 Texas win.
The risk is turnovers. Manning’s giveaways have handed opponents short fields. A defensive or special teams score could swing this number in a hurry. Still, the total has held at 50.5 all week, and a low-possession, run-heavy script fits the matchup.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no compelling moneyline angle here. Texas at -1400 implies a win probability above 93%, which leaves almost no return for the risk. Mississippi State at +800 would require a major upset from a team that was shut out by LSU during its current skid. As a result, we are passing on a bonus play and sticking with the two positions above.
The common thread is a grinding, lower-scoring game in which Texas controls the action but struggles to pull away. If you followed the Longhorns last week, our Mississippi vs Texas Prediction and Best Bet for Saturday October 24 covers how that matchup set up. Here is a recap of our picks for Saturday night:
- Mississippi State +20.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
NCAAF Mississippi State vs. Texas FAQ: Saturday October 31, 2026
What time does the Mississippi State vs. Texas game start?
Mississippi State vs. Texas kicks off at 7:30 PM ET (6:30 PM CT) on Saturday, October 31, 2026. The game is played under the lights in Austin.
What channel is the Mississippi State vs. Texas game on?
The Mississippi State vs. Texas game airs nationally on ESPN. Coverage begins with the 7:30 PM ET kickoff from Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.
Where are Mississippi State and Texas playing?
Mississippi State and Texas are playing at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. It is a home game for the Longhorns and a road SEC game for the Bulldogs.
Who won the last meeting between Mississippi State and Texas?
Texas won the last meeting between the two schools, beating Mississippi State 45-38 in 2025. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 4-2.
Is Mississippi State or Texas ranked?
Texas is ranked No. 11 in this week’s AP Top 25 after its win over Ole Miss. Mississippi State is unranked heading into the game after three straight losses, falling to 4-3 overall and 2-3 in SEC play.