Our Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction starts with a rematch that comes just four days after a wild overtime game in Denver. The Nuggets are 5-point road favorites in New Orleans, and the total sits at 241. Denver arrives 1-2 after a 20-point home loss to Golden State. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are still searching for their first win. Below, we work through availability, rest and the market’s movement before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: October 28, 2026
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| When | October 28 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | Gulf Coast Sports & Entertainment Network, KTVD |
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview
Availability comes first, and Denver carries the thinner rotation. Cameron Johnson is listed as doubtful with a right ankle sprain after missing the last two games. Alpha Diallo is out for personal reasons, while Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther remain sidelined. For New Orleans, center Yves Missi is out with a knee bruise, and Jordan Poole is probable with an illness. Johnson’s status is the one to watch before tip-off, although his absence matches how Denver has played the last two games.
The schedule also tilts toward the home side. New Orleans last played on Saturday and has had three full days off. Denver, by contrast, played at home Monday and now opens a two-game road trip. That matters because the Pelicans’ last trip to Denver came on the second night of a back-to-back, a day after a one-point loss in Utah.
Efficiency numbers are early and noisy, yet they point the same way. According to Denver’s Basketball Reference team page, the Nuggets rank 27th in defensive rating. They allow 121.5 points per 100 possessions and carry a net rating of -8.7. New Orleans sits 26th defensively at 120.9, but its offense rates 117.7 per 100 possessions against Denver’s 112.8. Pace is the sharpest contrast. The Pelicans average 102.4 possessions per game, while the Nuggets sit 28th at 96.8.
Shot profile separates them as well. Denver takes about 40% of its field-goal attempts from three, a heavier lean than New Orleans at roughly 34%. In contrast, the Pelicans get to the line more often, at about 34 free-throw attempts per 100 shots against Denver’s 32. Turnover rates are nearly identical, so neither side has a clear possession edge there. That profile matters for both markets. A faster opponent drags Denver into more possessions than it prefers, while frequent trips to the line keep the clock stopped late.
Denver still owns the stars. Jamal Murray scored 42 points in Saturday’s meeting, and Nikola Jokic added 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Still, the Monday loss was alarming. Golden State made 22 of 44 threes in its 134-114 win and controlled the glass in Denver.
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets | -5.0 (-105) | -195 | O 241.0 (-110) |
| Pelicans | +5.0 (-115) | +165 | U 241.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 28, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NBA Odds – Futures – Props
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Nuggets | 62% | 38% | Pelicans |
See the latest NBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Prediction — Does Three Days of Rest Erase Saturday’s Collapse?
Saturday’s game is the starting point. New Orleans played in Utah on Friday and flew to altitude without Missi. Even so, it led by 23 in the first half and by 19 entering the fourth quarter. Denver needed 42 from Murray and a Jokic triple-double to force overtime. The Pelicans then lost by six as 11.5-point underdogs. This time, they have three days of rest, a home floor and a Denver team on short rest after a lopsided loss.
The Pelicans’ scoring was also well spread out in that game. Trey Murphy III led them with 26 points, and Dejounte Murray added 22. Zion Williamson and Derik Queen chipped in 17 apiece. That balance matters against a Denver defense that has struggled to stay connected. Furthermore, Poole’s probable status adds another ball handler to a group that already scored 135 in Denver.
The market adds a second signal. Denver closed at -11.5 at home on Saturday, and this number is shorter than a standard home-court swing alone would explain. More telling is the movement since the open. Roughly 62% of spread tickets are on Denver. Yet the Nuggets’ price has drifted cheaper at the same number, while the home side’s price has risen. On the moneyline, 91% of tickets back Denver, and its price has still lengthened from the open. That is reverse line movement, and it agrees with the rest-and-form read.
The case against is real, however. New Orleans is 0-3 and has blown leads late, including a 19-point fourth-quarter lead on Saturday. Jokic and Murray can close any game, and Denver should be motivated after Monday. The current price implies roughly a 53.5% break-even rate. We rate the home side’s true chance a little higher than that. Their close losses suggest a competitive team rather than an overmatched one.
Our Nuggets vs Pelicans Pick: Pelicans +5.0 (-115)
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Prediction — What Did 141-135 Reveal About These Defenses?
Both defenses rank in the bottom five by rating, and neither has an obvious fix tonight. Denver’s perimeter defense was torched by Golden State, and Johnson’s likely absence leaves its forward rotation short again. New Orleans, meanwhile, is again without center Yves Missi. Saturday’s meeting was tied 126-126 at the end of regulation, so even without overtime it cleared this number. The Pelicans’ first three games also finished at 243, 239 and 276 combined points. The total has climbed 1.5 points from its 239.5 open, which supports the read.
Pace is the honest risk. Denver plays slowly, and its season opener in Oklahoma City produced only 180 points. Three-point shooting also swings totals more than anything else, so we lean on attempt volume and defensive rating rather than recent percentages. A comfortable Denver lead could also bring bench minutes and a slower finish. Our read lands moderately above the 52.4% break-even, so this rates as a lean rather than a strong play.
Our Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction: Over 241.0 (-110)
Our Final Word on Nuggets vs. Pelicans
Denver has the two best players on the floor, and a rested, focused Jokic can make any spread look short. Still, the situation favors New Orleans, and the market has moved against the popular side. The Pelicans pick and the Over also lean on related inputs, since both assume New Orleans keeps scoring at its current pace. Take the Pelicans +5.0 (-115) because a rested home team that led by 19 in the fourth on Saturday has reverse line movement behind it. Take the Over 241.0 (-110) because two bottom-five defenses already combined for 252 in regulation four days ago.