This Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction starts in the crease, because neither starting goaltender is confirmed for Friday night in Denver. The Tampa Bay Lightning bring a three-game win streak into Ball Arena. The Colorado Avalanche, meanwhile, return home after two straight losses on an Eastern swing. Colorado is a -128 favorite on the moneyline, and the total sits at 6.5 goals. Below, we work through the goaltending, the form and the market before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: October 23, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche — Game Info
| Where | Ball Arena, Denver Colorado |
| When | October 23 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | Altitude, The Spot, ESPN+ |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview
Goaltending is the first question, and it is still open. Tampa Bay opens a back-to-back here before visiting Utah on Saturday. Andrei Vasilevskiy projects as Friday’s starter, with Dennis Hildeby expected to take one half of the set. Vasilevskiy is 5-2-0 with a 2.46 goals-against average and a .898 save percentage. He made 32 saves in Tuesday’s 6-2 win at Vegas. He also owns a 7-5-1 career record against Colorado. Hildeby, by contrast, has won both of his starts this season.
Colorado’s crease is just as unsettled. Mackenzie Blackwood has carried most of the load, going 4-3-0 with a 2.90 GAA and an .889 save percentage. Blackwood started Monday in Philadelphia. Scott Wedgewood then made 37 saves in Tuesday’s 4-3 loss at New Jersey. That leaves Blackwood rested and the likelier choice. However, at least one projection has Wedgewood in net. Treat every read below as provisional until both starters are announced.
The Lightning are 7-2-0 and sit second in the Atlantic with 14 points. They have won seven of eight since an opening-night loss. They score 3.44 goals per game and allow 2.56. The Avalanche are 5-4-1 with 11 points, outside the Central’s top three. Still, they score 4.1 goals per game, second in the league. Their recent play has slipped. Colorado is 3-4-1 over its last eight, and New Jersey outshot it 41-33 on Tuesday.
Special teams tilt neither way. Tampa Bay’s power play converts just 12.9%, near the bottom of the league. Colorado runs at 18.75% on the power play and 82.6% on the kill. The Lightning kill penalties at 79.2%. On the injury front, Logan O’Connor is expected to make his season debut for Colorado. Yanni Gourde remains on injured reserve for Tampa Bay. The teams split last season, with Tampa Bay winning the most recent meeting.
The schedule spot is fairly even tonight. Both teams last played on Tuesday, so each arrives with two days off. Fatigue is a Saturday concern for Tampa Bay in Utah, not a Friday one. The Lightning are only 1-2-0 on the road, however. Up front, Nikita Kucherov leads the club with nine assists, and Brandon Hagel has seven goals. Artturi Lehkonen paces Colorado with eight goals, including two late in Tuesday’s loss. Kucherov has also hurt this opponent before, with 25 points in 23 career games against Colorado.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | +1.5 (-240) | +107 | O 6.5 (+102) |
| Avalanche | -1.5 (+200) | -128 | U 6.5 (-122) |
Odds accurate as of October 23, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Lightning | 71% | 29% | Avalanche |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Lightning vs. Avalanche Prediction — Does Colorado’s No. 2 Offense Meet Its Match?
A hockey total starts with the goaltenders, and neither likely starter is in strong form. Blackwood’s .889 save percentage and Vasilevskiy’s .898 both sit under .900. Colorado’s offense then supplies the volume. The Avalanche average 4.1 goals and 30.6 shots per game. Six of their 10 games have reached at least seven total goals. Their two losses this week show the late-game effect as well. Tuesday in New Jersey ended 4-3 after an empty-net goal and a Colorado goal with 3.5 seconds left.
The price matters here too. The over sits at plus money, which needs a 49.5% hit rate to break even. The under asks for 55.0%. The total has not moved from its opening number, so the market offers no confirmation either way. That keeps this a lean on research rather than a market-backed play. Keep in mind that this full-game total includes overtime and the shootout. A game tied after 60 minutes adds at least one more goal.
The case against is real. Tampa Bay plays a tighter game, and only three of its nine contests have topped 6.5 goals. The Lightning allow just 24.2 shots per game. Both power plays sit below the league average, which removes a common over driver. In addition, Vasilevskiy posted a .924 save percentage against Colorado last season. A Wedgewood start for Colorado would also cut into this read, since his numbers have been better than Blackwood’s.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (+102)
Lightning vs. Avalanche Prediction — Why Is 71% of the Puck Line Action on Tampa?
The market gives a small nudge toward the home side. Seventy-one percent of puck line bets are on Tampa Bay +1.5. Yet that price eased from -245 at the open to -240, a shift away from the popular side. The Colorado moneyline also firmed from -125 to -128. Both moves are small, so they confirm rather than lead. The research supplies the rest. Colorado has outscored opponents by more than a goal per game despite its 5-4-1 record. Its 1-3-0 mark in one-goal games looks more like variance than decline. At this price, Colorado needs to win 56.1% of the time.
On the other hand, Tampa Bay has earned its record, and the edge here is thin. The Lightning have won seven of eight, and Colorado looked slow in both road losses this week. Tampa Bay’s low shot volume against suggests its structure, not just its goaltending, is driving results. Two days of rest may not fix the defensive issues New Jersey exposed. This pick also rests on the same goaltending news as the total, so the two are not independent. A Hildeby start for Tampa Bay would help this side. This is the full-game moneyline, so overtime and the shootout count.
The Pick: Avalanche Moneyline (-128)
Our Final Word on Lightning vs. Avalanche
Colorado’s form on its trip east raised questions, which we covered in our Avalanche vs. Devils prediction earlier this week. Back home, the Avalanche get a rested roster and likely a rested starter. Tampa Bay arrives in form, but its shot suppression faces a deeper test against Colorado’s attack. Check the confirmed goaltenders before puck drop, because both plays depend on them.
Over 6.5 at +102 is the top play, built on two starters below .900 and an Avalanche offense averaging 4.1 goals per game. The Avalanche moneyline at -128 is the second play. Colorado has outscored opponents by more than a goal per game, and the market has edged toward the home side.
NHL Lightning vs. Avalanche FAQ: October 23, 2026
What time does the Lightning vs. Avalanche game start?
The Lightning and Avalanche drop the puck at 9:00 PM ET on Friday, October 23, 2026. That is 7:00 PM local time in Denver, where Ball Arena hosts the matchup. The game opens a weekend back-to-back for Tampa Bay, which visits the Utah Mammoth on Saturday.
What channel is the Lightning vs. Avalanche game on?
The game airs on Altitude in the Avalanche market and on The Spot in the Lightning market. ESPN+ also carries the matchup for viewers who want to stream it. Fans should check local listings, since regional television coverage depends on where you live and which market you fall in.
Where are the Lightning and Avalanche playing?
The Lightning and Avalanche play at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, home of the Avalanche. It is the first stop of a weekend back-to-back for Tampa Bay, which continues on to Utah. Colorado returns home after a two-game road trip through Philadelphia and New Jersey, where it lost both games.
Who won the last meeting between the Lightning and Avalanche?
Tampa Bay won the last meeting 4-2 on January 6, 2026, in Tampa. Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 33 shots in the win. Colorado won the earlier meeting last season 3-2 at home in November, so the teams split the season series.
Where do the Lightning and Avalanche stand in the standings?
Tampa Bay is 7-2-0 and sits second in the Atlantic Division with 14 points. Colorado is 5-4-1 with 11 points, outside the top three in the Central Division. The Avalanche have still outscored opponents by more than a goal per game, which points to a team playing better than its record.