Chicago walks into Lambeau Field on Sunday as a road favorite, and that alone says plenty about where these two NFC North teams sit after four weeks. The Bears are 3-1 and lead the league in total offense. Green Bay is 2-2 and playing without several core contributors. The catch is that Chicago is doing this with a backup quarterback, and the spread has already come in from where it opened.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Lambeau Field, Green Bay Wisconsin |
| When | Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Chicago arrives on a three-game winning streak, second in the division at 3-1 behind the unbeaten Vikings. Green Bay sits fourth at 2-2, level with Detroit. The NFC North standings show how tight the middle has become.
The Bears’ identity is settled. They lead the NFL in total yards at 429.0 per game and in rushing at 196.3 per game, and they hold the ball for more than 36 minutes a week. The defense has tightened sharply, allowing a league-low 28 points across the last three games. That formula produced a 23-12 win over the Jets.
The quarterback situation is the headline. Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury and has missed two games. Head coach Ben Johnson named Tyson Bagent the starter for a second straight week. Kyle Monangai is out and D’Andre Swift has been managing hip and knee issues, so the league’s best run game is not at full strength.
Green Bay’s absences run deeper. Edge rusher Micah Parsons has not played this season while recovering from a torn ACL. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and receiver Jayden Reed are out for the year, and Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner’s exempt list. Without him, the Packers average 58.0 rushing yards per game, last in the league. They also lead the NFL in penalty yards at 86 per game. Jordan Love is the counterweight: 13 touchdown passes against two interceptions in seven career games versus Chicago. This season has been harder, with Love’s 2026 line sitting at 56.5 percent completions, 1,041 yards and an 86.5 passer rating.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | -1.5 (-110) | -130 | O 46.5 (-115) |
| Packers | +1.5 (-110) | +110 | U 46.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of October 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Bears | 56% | 44% | Packers |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Bears vs. Packers Prediction — Can a Backup Quarterback Win at Lambeau?
Start with the line. Chicago opened as a three-point favorite and the number has since been cut roughly in half, so the market has already paid Green Bay for the quarterback news. Public money is nearly even at 56 percent on the Bears, so there is no crowd to fade. Chicago is 3-1 against the spread, Green Bay 1-3.
The structural edge belongs to Chicago. The Bears want to run and shorten the game, and Green Bay cannot answer in kind. A team averaging 58 rushing yards per game has to throw, and that plays into a defense that has conceded 28 points in three weeks. Bagent does not need to carry this offense. He needs to avoid turnovers while the run game and clock do the work.
The case against is real. Love has handled Chicago for most of his career, and the Bears are down their most efficient runner. If Monangai’s absence makes the ground game ordinary, Bagent is asked to win a passing contest instead. A rivalry game decided by a field goal is also the likeliest outcome, which makes a number this short close to a coin flip. Still, the better team is available at a discount to the opener.
The Pick: Bears -1.5 (-110)
Bears vs. Packers Prediction — Does Clock Control Starve This Total?
The possession math argues for fewer points than the number implies. Chicago holding the ball for more than 36 minutes per game strips drives out of the game before either offense finds a rhythm. Green Bay has struggled to finish, with both wins arriving in one-score games. Add a Bears offense run by a backup and a Packers attack with no run game, and the drive count shrinks.
The counterargument is that Chicago’s offense leads the league in yardage, so sustained drives could end in touchdowns rather than punts. Love has produced his biggest games against this opponent, and two explosive plays move a total quickly. We think the clock wins that argument. Our October 4 Packers write-up covers how this offense looked last week.
The Pick: Under 46.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If the half-point bothers you in a game that could land on a one-point margin, the moneyline is a cleaner expression of the same opinion. The price implies roughly a 57 percent win probability, a fair ask for the healthier team against an opponent missing its best defender, its lead running back and a starting receiver.
The Bonus Pick: Bears Moneyline (-130)
The risk across all three positions is the same. If Bagent turns the ball over twice, the structural advantages stop mattering and Green Bay wins a sloppy game at home. That is a live outcome, not a throwaway caveat. Note that the kickoff moved up to noon local time, so this market settles early. More of this week’s card sits in our latest NFL picks coverage.
Our picks: Bears -1.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-105), and Bears -130 on the moneyline as the alternate route to the same side.
NFL Bears vs. Packers FAQ: Sunday October 11, 2026
What time does the Bears vs. Packers game start?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET, or noon local time, on Sunday, October 11, 2026. The game was originally set for the late-afternoon window and was moved up by the league in late September, so check your listings before settling in for the early slate.
What channel is the Bears vs. Packers game on?
FOX has the television broadcast for Bears vs. Packers on Sunday afternoon. It is the network’s early-window NFC matchup, carried in both home markets and across much of the country given the profile of the rivalry and the division stakes attached to it.
Where are the Bears and Packers playing?
The game is at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with the Packers as the designated home team. Chicago makes the short trip north as the road favorite, an unusual look for a Bears team visiting Lambeau in the middle of October.
Who won the last meeting between the Bears and Packers?
Chicago won the last meeting 31-27 in the NFC wild-card round on January 10, a game played in Chicago that ended Green Bay’s season. The Bears have now won three of the last four games in this series after a long stretch of Packers dominance.
Where do the Bears and Packers stand in the NFC North?
Chicago is second in the NFC North at 3-1, trailing the 4-0 Vikings. Green Bay is fourth at 2-2, tied in the win column with Detroit. A Packers win would move them above .500 for the first time this season.