The Las Vegas Raiders arrive in Foxborough at 3-1 and a perfect 4-0 against the spread, yet the market still asks them to take points. New England is a 3.5-point home favorite despite scoring 65 points in four games. Nearly three-quarters of public spread tickets back the visitor, and the price has already shifted. That tension drives this Raiders vs. Patriots prediction.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA |
| When | Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview
Las Vegas sits second in the AFC West at 3-1, a game behind 4-0 Kansas City. New England is second in the AFC East at 2-2, a game behind Buffalo. The current NFL division standings flatter the Raiders, and so does their profile. Klint Kubiak’s first team has scored at least 25 points in every game, matched only by Detroit. Las Vegas also leads the league with nine takeaways and owns a plus-seven sack differential.
Kirk Cousins has been the engine. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes through four starts, the fastest he has reached that figure in a 15-year career. His previous best was 10 through four games in 2018. Rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza remains the backup. The Raiders lost 30-27 to Kansas City last week after beating Miami 27-13, the Chargers 26-14, and New Orleans 35-27.
New England’s season has been lumpier. The Patriots fell 13-10 at Seattle, beat Pittsburgh 20-3, got buried 35-6 at Jacksonville, then stole a 29-26 win at Buffalo. Drake Maye threw three touchdowns in that game. Still, he already has seven interceptions, one short of his total for all of last regular season. The offense has scored on just four of nine red-zone trips, a 44.4 percent rate.
Health is the sharper story. Maye practiced fully all week with a right shoulder issue and carries no game designation. His secondary is thin, though. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are all out, along with receiver Mack Hollins. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson and tackle Christian Barmore are questionable. Las Vegas rules out receivers Jalen Nailor and Dont’e Thornton Jr. plus guard Trey Zuhn III, and lists running back Ashton Jeanty as questionable.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | +3.5 (-115) | +160 | U 45 (-110) |
| Patriots | -3.5 (-105) | -185 | O 45 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Raiders | 72% | 28% | Patriots |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction — Is the Public on the Wrong Side of a Short Number?
The spread opened at 3.5 with both sides at -110. The handicap has not budged, but the juice has. Las Vegas now costs -115 while New England has drifted to -105. That is what 72 percent of spread tickets on the visitor tends to produce. The market absorbed the one-way money by taxing the popular side instead of moving the number.
The case for Las Vegas is public for good reason. The Raiders are 4-0 against the number while New England is 2-1-1. Cousins is on the best touchdown pace of his career against a secondary missing its top two corners. Las Vegas has won three straight in this series, including 20-13 in Foxborough on September 5, 2025, though New England leads the all-time series 20-18-1.
The counterweight is venue and form. New England has won nine of its past 10 home games including the playoffs. Meanwhile, opponents have scored touchdowns on 10 of 13 red-zone trips against this Raiders defense, a 76.9 percent rate. Maye’s three-touchdown day at Buffalo suggests rhythm is arriving. Add price relief on a short number and the math tips toward the team nobody wants. The risk is plain: if Cousins carves up the backup corners early, 3.5 points stop mattering.
The Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction — Will the Scoring Keep Up With Cousins?
The total opened at 45 and has not moved, with both sides still at -110. That stability is surprising given the Raiders’ games have produced 40, 40, 62 and 57 combined points. Las Vegas scores 28.8 per game and allows 21.0. Dylan Laube also leads the league with a 33.4-yard kickoff return average, which keeps shortening the field for an offense that needs no help.
The under case lives on New England’s side of the ledger. Patriots games have gone 23, 23, 41 and 55, so three of four finished beneath this number. Their offense averages 16.3 points and stalls inside the 20, and field goals are how 45 stays safe. The question is whether a depleted secondary can force Las Vegas into the same grind, and the official Patriots injury report argues it cannot.
The Pick: Over 45 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline does not offer a better route to the same opinion. New England at -185 implies roughly a 65 percent win probability, and a 2-2 team with a patchwork secondary does not clearly justify that price. The value created by the public money sits in the spread, so no third position is worth taking. Bettors leaning the other way should read +160 as a real path to the upset, not a bargain.
Both picks lean on one question: whether this game produces points. A 24-20 New England win satisfies both, while a 17-13 slog splits them. For more on how the Raiders looked last week, see our Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction, and for the rest of the slate, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
Full card for this game: Patriots -3.5 (-105) and Over 45 (-110).
NFL Raiders vs. Patriots FAQ: Sunday October 11, 2026
What time does the Raiders vs. Patriots game start?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It sits in the early Sunday window of the Week 5 schedule, so it runs alongside most of the afternoon slate rather than in a standalone national broadcast window.
What channel is the Raiders vs. Patriots game on?
The game airs nationally on CBS, carried locally in the Boston market by WBZ-TV Channel 4. Kevin Harlan handles play-by-play with Trent Green as analyst and Melanie Collins reporting from the sideline. Local-market viewers can also stream it through Paramount+ or NFL+.
Where are the Raiders and Patriots playing?
The game is at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, the Patriots’ home venue, with Las Vegas as the road team. New England has won nine of its past 10 games in this building, a run that includes the playoffs.
Who won the last meeting between the Raiders and Patriots?
Las Vegas won the last meeting 20-13 on September 5, 2025, in Foxborough. That result pushed the Raiders to three consecutive wins in the series, following earlier victories in 2022 and 2023. New England still leads the all-time series 20-18-1.
Where do the Raiders and Patriots stand in their divisions?
Las Vegas is 3-1 and second in the AFC West, one game behind the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs. New England is 2-2 and second in the AFC East, one game behind the 3-1 Buffalo Bills. Each division also has a 0-4 team.