Two unbeaten AFC West teams meet in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon, and the market has nudged the Kansas City Chiefs out to a 5-point road favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders. That is a full point above where this spread opened. The Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2021, Kirk Cousins is tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns, and the Las Vegas defense leads the league in takeaways. Oddsmakers keep siding with Patrick Mahomes anyway. Here is the breakdown, plus our two picks.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise NV |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 4:25 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview
Kansas City sits atop the AFC West at 3-0. The Chiefs won 31-10 at Denver, survived Indianapolis 33-30 in overtime, then ground out a 24-10 win at Miami. They have out-gained their opponents 1,249 yards to 834, a margin of plus-415.
Mahomes has been efficient rather than explosive, completing 67 of 98 attempts for 812 yards with seven touchdowns, two interceptions and a 108.9 passer rating. The bigger story is the ground game. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards on 65 carries and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month for September.
Las Vegas is also 3-0, second in the division on tiebreakers. Klint Kubiak’s team beat Miami 27-13, won 26-14 at the Los Angeles Chargers, then scored 35 in a 35-27 win at New Orleans. The schedule deserves a caveat, however. Those three opponents are now 0-3, 0-3 and 1-2 in the current NFL standings.
Cousins has nine touchdown passes against three interceptions. He is the first quarterback in franchise history to throw three touchdowns in each of the team’s first three games. Tight end Brock Bowers made his first start of the year in Week 3 and caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a score. The Raiders defense has produced nine takeaways, most in the league.
The injury picture is mild. Kansas City ruled out tackle Josh Simmons with a back injury. Las Vegas ruled out guard Jackson Powers-Johnson with a groin injury. Both starting quarterbacks are good to go.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -5 (-110) | -230 | O 47.5 (-115) |
| Raiders | +5 (-110) | +190 | U 47.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Chiefs | 51% | 49% | Raiders |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction — Can the Road Favorite Cover a Growing Number?
Start with the line. This spread opened at Kansas City -4 and now sits at -5, while the moneyline moved from -210 to -230. Spread tickets, meanwhile, are split almost evenly at 51 percent to 49 percent. When a side gains a point without the public pushing it there, the move usually reflects sharper money rather than sentiment.
The case for Kansas City is the yardage gap. Plus-415 through three games is not a fluke, and Walker gives this offense something it has lacked for years — a back who can carry a drive without Mahomes throwing it 40 times. That matters on the road in a loud building. The Chiefs have also faced the stiffer schedule, with Denver at 2-1 and Indianapolis pushing them to overtime.
The case against is just as real. Las Vegas has nine takeaways, more than any defense in football, against a Chiefs team that has generated only four sacks of its own. Simmons being out thins Kansas City’s protection the same way Powers-Johnson’s absence thins the Raiders’ interior. Then there is recent history here. The last time these teams met at Allegiant Stadium, on January 4, 2026, Las Vegas won 14-12 on a 60-yard Daniel Carlson field goal with eight seconds left.
It comes down to price. Five points sits on the wrong side of three and of seven, so the number must be earned by two scores. Against a team forcing mistakes at a league-best rate, that is a lot to ask.
The Pick: Raiders +5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction — Will Two Hot Defenses Keep the Number Down?
The total opened at 47.0 and has crept to 47.5, modest movement for a game between two unbeaten teams. The argument for scoring is straightforward. Cousins is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns, Bowers is a full-time problem in the middle of the field, and Las Vegas has posted 27, 26 and 35 points.
The argument the other way is how both teams win. Kansas City’s two road victories were 31-10 and 24-10, games decided by defense and possession rather than traded scores. Walker’s 65 carries point the same direction — more clock, fewer snaps for either side. Las Vegas also generates points off turnovers as much as sustained drives, and takeaway-driven scoring is volatile rather than repeatable. The counterpoint is plain. If Cousins keeps throwing three touchdowns a week, this total does not hold.
The Pick: Under 47.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline deserves a look for anyone who wants Las Vegas outright. At +190, the Raiders carry an implied win probability of roughly 34.5 percent. That is a defensible price for a 3-0 home team that leads the league in takeaways and beat this opponent in this building nine months ago. The risk is clear. Las Vegas has not faced an offense close to this one, and the moneyline gives back the five points that make the spread attractive. Treat it as a smaller-stake alternative.
What would make us wrong on both sides is a Chiefs blowout built on Walker carries and a short Raiders field. Kansas City has the better roster and the better quarterback, and the market has moved its way. We are betting the number, not the outcome. For more this week, see our latest NFL picks coverage and our Week 3 Raiders preview.
All picks: Raiders +5 (-110); Under 47.5 (-105); bonus angle, Raiders moneyline +190.
NFL Chiefs vs. Raiders FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Chiefs vs. Raiders game start?
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, which is 1:25 PM local time in Las Vegas. The game sits in the late-afternoon window of the Week 4 schedule.
What channel is the Chiefs vs. Raiders game on?
CBS has the national broadcast, with Jim Nantz on play-by-play and J.J. Watt as analyst. The game also streams on Paramount+ for subscribers.
Where are the Chiefs and Raiders playing?
The game is at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, the Raiders’ home venue just off the Las Vegas Strip. Las Vegas is the home team for this Week 4 AFC West matchup.
Who won the last meeting between the Chiefs and Raiders?
Las Vegas won the most recent meeting 14-12 on January 4, 2026, at Allegiant Stadium. Daniel Carlson ended it with a 60-yard field goal that left eight seconds on the clock, in a game where both kickers made four field goals.
Where do the Chiefs and Raiders stand in the AFC West?
Both teams are 3-0, with Kansas City first and Las Vegas second on divisional tiebreakers. Denver is 2-1 and the Los Angeles Chargers are 0-3, so Sunday’s winner takes sole possession of the AFC West lead.