Our Rays vs Yankees prediction for ALDS Game 3 starts with a Yankees team one loss from elimination. Tampa Bay won both games at Tropicana Field, and New York has scored just two runs in the series. The Yankees are -164 favorites at home, and the total sits at 7.0 after opening at 7.5. Max Fried faces Nick Martinez in a matchup of two strong starters. Below, we break down the pitching, the market and where our best plays land.
Last Updated: October 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Game Info
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx NY |
| When | October 7 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
The pitching matchup sets this price. Max Fried gets the ball for Game 3 on a full week of rest. He threw six innings of one-run ball against Boston in the Wild Card clincher. The left-hander finished the regular season 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 112 2/3 innings. His 2.65 FIP backs up that ERA, and he allowed just four home runs all year. Two injured list stints for a bone bruise in his left elbow limited him to 20 starts.
His recent form is sharp. Over his last five outings, Fried allowed eight earned runs in 28 2/3 innings with 27 strikeouts. However, Tampa Bay has been his toughest recent opponent. The Rays scored four runs off him in 6 2/3 innings on Sept. 22. Across two starts against them this season, he allowed seven earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Martinez makes his first career postseason start at age 36. The first-time All-Star went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 180 innings. His control is elite, with only 26 walks all season. Still, he struck out just 109 batters, and his 3.96 FIP suggests the ERA flattered him. He was far better on the road, posting a 2.38 ERA in 16 starts away from home. He also held the Yankees to three runs over 12 innings in two starts at Yankee Stadium. His last outing was rough, though, with four runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings at Philadelphia on Sept. 27.
The series has been one-sided so far. Drew Rasmussen carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of a 1-0 Game 1 win. The Yankees then committed four errors in a 5-2 Game 2 loss, three of them in the first inning. Ben Rice’s two solo homers are New York’s only runs of the series. The Yankees are also without Aaron Judge, who was left off the ALDS roster with a right calf strain. Our Yankees vs. Rays Game 2 preview covers how this series set up.
Tampa Bay won the AL East at 98-64, 4.5 games ahead of the 93-68 Yankees. Both teams went 6-4 over their last 10 games. The Rays lead the season series 9-6, including the two playoff wins.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +138 | O 7.0 (-125) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+140) | -164 | U 7.0 (+105) |
Odds accurate as of October 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Rays | 33% | 67% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — Can Yankee Stadium Revive a Two-Run Offense?
Start with the bullpens, since late innings decide totals. Both relief corps had Tuesday off to reset. Tampa Bay’s relievers have covered only 5 1/3 innings in the series. Ian Seymour threw 41 pitches over three innings on Monday, so his availability may be limited. In contrast, Yankees closer David Bednar threw just three pitches in Game 2. Over the regular season, New York’s bullpen held opponents to a .365 slugging percentage, compared with .404 against Tampa Bay’s relievers.
The starters point the same direction. Tampa Bay’s lineup is much weaker against left-handers, slugging .364 against them compared with .420 against righties. That plays into Fried’s hands. On the other side, Martinez rarely walks anyone, which keeps traffic off the bases and his pitch count manageable. New York also hit just .229 against right-handed pitching this season. The Yankees have scored two runs in 18 innings against Tampa Bay’s staff this week.
The risk is the long ball. Martinez allowed 22 home runs this season. Yankee Stadium also boosts home runs on a multi-year basis, even though it plays close to neutral for overall scoring. The Yankees hit 223 homers during the regular season and scored nine runs in each Wild Card game against Boston. A whole-number total adds push risk, too. Still, the total has come down half a run since it opened, which lines up with this read. The over now carries the heavier price at the lower number, so the book has seen some action both ways.
The Pick: Under 7.0 (+105)
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — What Does Fried Bring on a Full Week of Rest?
Fried’s strikeout output has been steady since he returned from the injured list. His totals over his last five starts read 4, 7, 6, 4 and 6. He fell short of four only twice in 21 starts all season. He also struck out six and four in his two regular-season starts against Tampa Bay. His rate of 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings gives him room to get there even on a shorter leash.
The counterargument is the opponent. Tampa Bay struck out in only 18.8% of its plate appearances this season, so this is a contact-heavy lineup. An elimination game also means a quick hook if Fried runs into early trouble. The price is steep as well. This play rests on Fried pitching well, the same input behind our first pick, so the two are not independent.
The Pick: Max Fried 4+ Strikeouts (-275)
Our Final Word on Rays vs. Yankees
One more angle stands out. A low total projects a tight game, and tight games produce plenty of one-run finishes. That gives the run-line cushion real value here. The Rays have also won nine of 15 meetings this season. Two-thirds of spread tickets are on New York, yet the run line has not moved off its opening number. That is a mild freeze rather than a strong signal. On the other hand, Fried holds a clear edge over Martinez in the peripherals. The Yankees also scored 18 runs across two Wild Card games, so a lopsided win is possible. This read leans on the same low-scoring thesis as our first pick.
The Pick: Rays +1.5 (-165)
Our top play is Under 7.0 (+105), backed by two rested bullpens and a Yankees lineup that has scored two runs in 18 innings. Max Fried 4+ Strikeouts (-275) follows, supported by his 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a steady recent floor. Rays +1.5 (-165) rounds out the card, since a low-scoring game makes a one-run finish a live outcome.
MLB Rays vs. Yankees FAQ: October 7, 2026
What time does the Rays vs. Yankees game start?
Game 3 of the ALDS between the Rays and Yankees starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Tampa Bay leads the best-of-five series 2-0, so a win would send the Rays to the American League Championship Series.
What channel is the Rays vs. Yankees game on?
The Rays vs. Yankees game airs nationally on TBS and truTV on Wednesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. TBS has carried this ALDS matchup since Game 1 at Tropicana Field, with the Yankees now facing elimination.
How can I stream the Rays vs. Yankees game?
You can stream the Rays vs. Yankees game on HBO Max, which is listed among the official outlets for ALDS Game 3 alongside TBS and truTV. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 7, with New York trailing the series 2-0.
Who is pitching for the Yankees tonight?
Max Fried starts Game 3 for the Yankees. The left-hander went 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA in 20 regular-season starts and allowed one run over six innings in the Wild Card clincher against Boston. Nick Martinez, who went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, makes his first career postseason start for Tampa Bay.
Is Aaron Judge playing tonight?
No. Aaron Judge is not on the Yankees’ ALDS roster because of a right calf strain, so he will not play in Game 3 against the Rays. Judge also missed the Wild Card Series sweep of Boston. New York has scored two runs in the first two games of this series without him.
What is the season series record between the Rays and Yankees?
Tampa Bay leads the 2026 season series 9-6. The Rays won the regular-season meetings 7-6, then took the first two games of the ALDS, 1-0 and 5-2, at Tropicana Field. The last meeting was Game 2 on October 5, when four Yankees errors helped Tampa Bay win.