Our Yankees vs Rays prediction for ALDS Game 2 starts on the mound. Cam Schlittler meets Freddy Peralta at Tropicana Field, with Tampa Bay up 1-0 in the series. New York is a -124 moneyline favorite on the road, and the total sits at 6.5 after a 1-0 opener. We break down the pitching matchup, both bullpens and the market before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: October 5, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Game Info
| Where | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg FL |
| When | October 5 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
Schlittler is the reason New York is favored. The right-hander went 14-6 with an AL-best 1.95 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and 239 strikeouts in 193⅔ innings. That works out to 11.1 strikeouts and only 2.3 walks per nine. He opened the postseason with 6⅓ scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts against Boston. Across his last four full regular-season starts plus that Wild Card outing, he allowed three earned runs in 33⅓ innings. His final regular-season appearance was a three-inning tune-up against these Rays.
Peralta arrives on a different kind of run. Tampa Bay acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline, and the change has been dramatic. He posted a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts for the Mets, then a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts for the Rays. He closed 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his final six starts and was named AL Pitcher of the Month for September.
The peripherals are softer than that ERA, however. His strikeout rate with Tampa Bay is 7.0 per nine, down from 8.9 with the Mets. He also walked eight batters in 16 innings over his final three starts. None of those outings reached six innings, and he needed between 86 and 97 pitches in each. His last start came Sept. 25 at Philadelphia, so he enters on extended rest.
The lineups pull in opposite directions. New York hit 223 home runs, second in MLB, and Ben Rice led the way with 41. Tampa Bay hit 169, which ranked 22nd. Still, the Rays posted the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 18.8%, and Junior Caminero supplies power with 42 homers. Aaron Judge remains on the injured list for New York.
Tampa Bay won the AL East at 98-64 and took the season series 7-6. New York finished 93-68 and outscored Boston 18-2 in a Wild Card sweep. In Game 1, Drew Rasmussen carried a no-hit bid into the eighth inning. Jonathan Aranda’s solo homer off Gerrit Cole held up in a 1-0 win. Our earlier Yankees vs. Rays Game 1 prediction covers the series opener.
The stakes are clear in a best-of-five. Games 3 and 4 move to Yankee Stadium on October 7 and 8, with a Game 5 back in St. Petersburg on October 10 if needed. New York would face elimination at home after a loss tonight. Tropicana Field is also back in use this season after the Rays played 2025 at Steinbrenner Field following hurricane damage to the dome.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+150) | -124 | O 6.5 (-115) |
| Rays | +1.5 (-175) | +104 | U 6.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of October 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 82% | 18% | Rays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction — Is Peralta’s 0.79 September ERA Built to Last?
The handicap starts with the gap between the starters. Schlittler’s WHIP and strikeout rate are elite on any measure. Peralta’s Rays ERA looks strong on the surface, but his strikeouts have dipped and his walks have climbed. That matters against this lineup. New York ranked second in home runs, so a walk ahead of a power bat can turn a quiet inning into a crooked number. Peralta has also worked about five innings per start lately, which leaves little margin for a long first trip through the order.
The case for Peralta deserves respect. He allowed three earned runs across his final 34 innings, and a pitcher on that kind of run is easy to underrate. The Rays also strike out less than any team in baseball. That contact approach can push Schlittler’s pitch count up and keep him from working as deep as he did against Boston.
The bigger question is what happens once the starters leave. Tampa Bay’s bullpen is rested after a first-round bye and a Sunday off day, and closer Bryan Baker threw only 14 pitches in Game 1. Baker finished the season with a 1.44 ERA and 41 saves. The market reflects that late strength. The Yankees moneyline has drifted from -128 at the open to -124, even with 82% of run line bets on New York. That modest move against the public says the money is less confident about New York over nine innings than the bet count suggests. The matchup is lopsided while the starters are in the game and much closer after that.
The Pick: Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline (-145)
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction — Does Baker’s 14-Pitch Game 1 Change the Late Innings?
Late innings decide totals, and both bullpens enter fresh. Tampa Bay used only Baker in Game 1, while New York’s three relievers combined for 46 pitches before Sunday’s off day. The Yankees’ staff led MLB with a 3.24 ERA, and David Bednar carries a sub-2.50 ERA at the back end. Tropicana Field adds to the case. It is a fixed dome, and multi-year park factors rate it below league average for run scoring.
The Rays’ offense fits that environment. Tampa Bay reached base at a .326 clip, better than New York’s .311. However, its lineup relies on contact and speed rather than the long ball. Against a pitcher with a 0.92 WHIP, stringing three hits together is a tough path to a run.
The risk is real. New York scored nine runs in each game of its Wild Card sweep, the second of which we covered in our Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 prediction. Peralta’s recent walks could also open the door early. The price has also shaded toward the Over since opening, which works against this read. Both plays here lean on the same input, Schlittler limiting a Rays lineup that ranked 22nd in homers. If he falters, both are exposed.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-105)
Our Final Word on Yankees vs. Rays
Game 2 sets up as a pitching duel, but the starting matchup favors New York more clearly than the full-game price does. Schlittler led the American League in ERA, and Peralta’s strong September came with fewer strikeouts and more walks late. The Rays’ rested bullpen is the equalizer, and that shapes how we approach the side.
Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline (-145) is our top play because Schlittler’s elite strikeout and WHIP profile faces a Peralta whose walks have climbed. Under 6.5 (-105) follows because two rested bullpens and a below-average run environment make late runs hard to find.
MLB Yankees vs. Rays FAQ: October 5, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Rays game start?
Game 2 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Rays starts at 8:00 PM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026. The game is at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, where Tampa Bay won Game 1 by a 1-0 score on Saturday night.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Rays game on?
The Yankees vs. Rays game airs nationally on TBS, with a simulcast on truTV, for the 8:00 PM ET first pitch on Monday. TBS carries the full series, with Games 3 and 4 set for Yankee Stadium on October 7 and 8.
How can I stream the Yankees vs. Rays game?
You can stream the Yankees vs. Rays game on HBO Max, which carries the TBS broadcast of Game 2. The stream follows the same 8:00 PM ET start as the television broadcast from Tropicana Field, where the Rays lead the best-of-five series 1-0.
Who is pitching for the Rays tonight?
Freddy Peralta starts for the Rays in Game 2. Tampa Bay acquired the right-hander from the Mets at the trade deadline, and he posted a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts for the Rays. He was named AL Pitcher of the Month for September after going 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his final six starts.
Who won the last meeting between the Yankees and Rays?
The Rays won the last meeting, beating the Yankees 1-0 in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday. Drew Rasmussen held New York hitless into the eighth inning, and Jonathan Aranda’s solo home run off Gerrit Cole provided the only run.