The New England Patriots arrive in Orchard Park as seven-point underdogs against a Buffalo Bills team that has not lost a game or a bet yet this season. Buffalo is 3-0 and leads the NFL in scoring at 33.7 points per game. New England is 1-2 and has managed just 36 points across three weeks. The spread opened at Bills -7 and has not budged off the key number, but the price attached to it has moved in a direction worth noticing. Below is the full breakdown of the line, the total, the public split, and where we land on both.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo sits alone atop the AFC East at 3-0 in Joe Brady’s first season as head coach. The Bills won at Houston 36-31, beat Detroit at home, then handled the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 in Week 3. Josh Allen carries no designation on the final injury report. The ground game has been the engine, averaging better than five yards per carry behind James Cook, and Buffalo leans on heavy multi-tight-end personnel more than any team in the league.
New England’s season has gone the other way. The Patriots lost 13-10 at Seattle, shut down Pittsburgh 20-3, then were buried 35-6 at Jacksonville. Drake Maye has thrown one touchdown against six interceptions with a completion rate under 64 percent. That is a steep fall from his 2025 form, and the turnovers explain an offense averaging 12.0 points per game. For more on how New England got here, see our our Week 3 Patriots coverage.
The injury news tilts further toward Buffalo. New England ruled out cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore, its best coverage player and its best interior disruptor. Buffalo is comparatively clean. Cornerback Christian Benford and running back Ray Davis are questionable, and defensive lineman T.J. Sanders is doubtful. Losing Gonzalez against Allen is a subtraction that shows up on the scoreboard.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +7 (-120) | +260 | U 50.5 (-115) |
| Bills | -7 (+100) | -320 | O 50.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Patriots | 39% | 61% | Bills |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction — Can the Road Dog Hang Around a Key Number?
Start with the price rather than the number. The spread opened Bills -7 and sits at Bills -7, so the market has not moved off seven. The juice has moved, though. Buffalo opened at -105 on the spread and now trades at even money, while the Patriots side has firmed to -120. That is money arriving on New England, and it arrived while 61 percent of spread tickets were sitting on Buffalo. When the public leans one way and the price drifts the other, it is worth asking what the other side sees.
The case for the Patriots is their defense and the number itself. Seven is the most important margin in football, and New England has already held one opponent to three points this season. Buffalo’s defense has not been a wall either. The Bills gave up 31 points in the opener at Houston and sit mid-pack in points allowed under new coordinator Jim Leonhard. If this stays a methodical, low-possession afternoon, a seven-point cushion is live.
The case against is the quarterback gap. Allen against a secondary without Gonzalez is a mismatch, and Buffalo’s heavy run packages get easier with Barmore out of the middle. Maye’s six interceptions are a pattern, not bad luck, and short fields are how a seven-point game becomes a fourteen-point game. Buffalo is also 3-0 against the spread and has covered in both home games. Taking the better team at even money, rather than paying standard juice, is where the value sits. The risk is real: a push is live, and a backdoor score can erase a cover.
The Pick: Bills -7 (+100)
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction — Has the Number Climbed Past What One Offense Can Deliver?
The total opened at 48.5 and has climbed to 50.5, which tells you the Buffalo offense is doing the talking. That is defensible on its own terms. The Bills average 33.7 points per game, two of their three games have gone over, and Allen’s rushing scores give this offense a scoring floor that does not depend on explosive passing. A 34-17 Buffalo win clears the number without New England doing anything at all.
The problem is the other half of the scoreboard. New England has produced 36 points in three games and is 0-3 to the under. For 50.5 to cash, the Patriots likely need the twenties, and they have reached that once. Game flow matters too: if Buffalo builds an early lead, its run-heavy personnel bleeds clock rather than chasing points. The counterweight is that two Maye interceptions returned for short fields could inflate this quickly. Still, needing roughly 51 combined points from one functional offense is asking a lot.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no third play worth recommending. Buffalo’s moneyline at -320 implies roughly a 76 percent win probability, close to where most projections already have this game. Paying that to avoid a seven-point spread you believe in is not an edge. Moving off -7 to a safer alternate number also costs more than the key-number risk is worth.
One note for context: this is only the third regular-season game at Buffalo’s new Highmark Stadium, which opened this year. That is a storyline, not a handicapping edge. For the broader card, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
To recap, we are on two plays in this one: Bills -7 (+100) and Under 50.5 (-115). Both lean on the same read — Buffalo is the better team by a wide margin, but New England’s offense is too limited to turn this into a shootout.
NFL Patriots vs. Bills FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Patriots vs. Bills game start?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026. It is an early-window Sunday game rather than a national primetime slot, so it runs alongside the rest of the afternoon schedule.
What channel is the Patriots vs. Bills game on?
The game airs on CBS. Coverage is regional, so the broadcast reaches the New England and Western New York markets along with surrounding affiliates carrying the AFC East matchup.
Where are the Patriots and Bills playing?
The teams meet at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, Buffalo’s home venue. The building opened in 2026, and this is only its third regular-season game, making it the first Patriots visit to the new stadium.
Who won the last meeting between the Patriots and Bills?
Buffalo won the last meeting 35-31 on December 14, 2025, at Gillette Stadium. The Bills erased a 21-0 deficit in that game, with Josh Allen throwing three touchdown passes. The teams split the 2025 series.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Patriots and Bills?
Drake Maye starts for New England and Josh Allen starts for Buffalo. Allen carries no injury designation. Maye has been on the report with a shoulder issue but has practiced and remains the Patriots’ starter.