This Aces vs Fever prediction arrives with Indiana’s season on the line. Las Vegas won Game 1 by 17 points on Sunday and leads this best-of-three first-round series 1-0. The Fever host Game 2 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where a loss ends their year. The market has made Indiana a short home favorite, and the number has barely moved since it opened. Three quarters of the spread tickets, however, have landed on Las Vegas. That split is worth unpacking. Below is the full market picture, the matchup reasoning behind it, and the two plays that came out of the work.
Last Updated: September 29, 2026
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever — Game Info
| Where | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis IN |
| When | September 29 – 6:30 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Betting Preview
Availability shapes this game more than any other input. Indiana listed Caitlin Clark as probable with a back issue and Aliyah Boston as probable with a right lower-leg problem. Both played in Game 1, so the read here treats both as available. Still, a probable tag on a team facing elimination stays worth watching until tip-off. Ty Harris and Damiris Dantas are out for the season. Las Vegas carries its own hole, with NaLyssa Smith lost for the year to a knee injury. That absence thins the frontcourt rotation behind A’ja Wilson.
The seeding says Las Vegas is the better team. The Aces finished 31-13 as the third seed and the defending champions. Indiana finished 28-16 and took the sixth seed. The underlying numbers are closer than that gap suggests. Indiana led the league in scoring at 96.0 points per game, in field goal percentage at 48.7%, and in three-point percentage at 38.6%. Las Vegas ranked second in the first two categories and third from deep. Indiana also played at the league’s third-fastest pace. Las Vegas defends better, ranking fifth in defensive rating against Indiana’s ninth.
The season series belonged to Indiana. The Fever won two of three, and both wins came in Las Vegas. One was a 109-75 blowout on July 12. The Aces’ only win was 86-84 in overtime at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on August 6. Across those three games, Indiana shot 48.3% overall and 41.9% from three, while Las Vegas managed 40% and just 22.4% from behind the arc. Boston also outplayed Wilson in the series, averaging 19.3 points and 11.0 rebounds on 59.5% shooting.
Game 1 flipped all of that. Wilson poured in 38 points on 15-of-19 shooting with 16 rebounds. Las Vegas shot 59.4% as a team and led 62-47 at the break. Clark and Mitchell combined to go 10-for-33 from the field and 4-for-12 from three. Las Vegas turned Indiana’s giveaways into 28 points. Head coach Stephanie White pointed at ball security as the fix. Las Vegas now arrives on an eight-game winning streak counting Sunday.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aces | +1.5 (-110) | -105 | O 183.0 (-115) |
| Fever | -1.5 (-110) | -115 | U 183.0 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Las Vegas Aces | 74% | 26% | Indiana Fever |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Aces vs. Fever Prediction — What Changed Since Indiana’s 34-Point Win in Las Vegas?
Start with the power ratings rather than the seeds. Las Vegas finished the season with a net rating of roughly seven points per 100 possessions. Indiana finished at roughly the same figure. Two teams that close on a neutral floor should separate by about home-court value, which runs two to three points in this league. The market has Indiana as a narrow home favorite. That is a thinner edge than the profile supports, and the Fever’s league-best 117.0 offensive rating is the reason.
Game 1 also came apart in ways that tend not to repeat. Las Vegas shot 59.4% from the floor. No team sustains that. Wilson went 15-of-19, a playoff career high in points. Meanwhile Indiana’s two leading scorers shot 30% between them. Kelsey Mitchell averaged 24.7 points per game this season and finished with 12. Clark averaged 22.3 and finished with 15. Those are regression candidates in both directions. Layer on the 28 points Las Vegas scored off Indiana’s giveaways, and the 17-point margin looks larger than the underlying play.
The case against Indiana is real, though. The Aces defended at a fifth-ranked level all year. Indiana’s defense sat ninth. Indiana fell 86-66 at Minnesota in its regular-season finale. That is not the form of a team about to outscore anyone. Home court has not been a fortress either, at 15-7 with the only Las Vegas meeting there ending in an overtime loss. Market signals do not help Indiana much. Public tickets sit heavily on Las Vegas, and the line has drifted that way rather than against it. A move that follows the crowd carries little signal. One detail does cut the other way. Indiana opened at a shorter price and has since drifted back, so the current number is the better of the two.
The Pick: Indiana Fever Moneyline (-115)
Aces vs. Fever Prediction — What Explains That 109-Point First Half?
Game 1 produced 109 points before halftime and only 78 after it. That split is the key to reading this total correctly. Three of the four meetings this year were decided by double digits. The low final numbers in those games came from slow closing halves rather than slow starts. Indiana’s home games averaged 189.6 combined points across 22 dates this season. Both teams rank top three in scoring and in field goal percentage. An elimination game also keeps starters on the floor early, which pushes the opening 20 minutes rather than dragging them.
The board itself is worth reading here. The first and second quarter totals posted for this game sit at 46.5 and 45.5. Added together that is 92.0, and both quarters carry standard juice. The number posted for the opening 20 minutes as a single market sits half a point below that sum, at the same price. A half point is not a windfall. Still, a market priced below the sum of its own parts is a structural edge rather than an opinion. The counter-argument is straightforward. Playoff openings can be tight and ugly. Las Vegas also defends better than Indiana, and the Fever’s last two home games produced only 170 and 173 combined points. Both of those came against strong defensive opponents. The read leans on Indiana’s offense finding its range early, which is the same thesis carrying the first play.
The Pick: First Half Over 91.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Aces vs. Fever
Neither play here is a heavy one. The side is close to a coin flip by the numbers, and the market agrees. What tips it is the price relative to a profile that says these teams are near equals, with Indiana holding home court. The player prop board offers no help. Every milestone price checked against season averages asks for more than the underlying rates support, so the edge lives in the game markets. Note also that the regular-season series saw Las Vegas shoot just 22.4% from three against this defense.
Indiana at -115 on the moneyline is the play. Two teams with matching net ratings should separate by home court, and this price does not fully reflect that. The first half over 91.5 follows. Opening halves between these teams have run hot, and the number sits below the sum of the two quarter totals inside it.
WNBA Aces vs. Fever FAQ: September 29, 2026
What time does the Aces vs. Fever game start?
Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This is Game 2 of a best-of-three first-round playoff series. Las Vegas leads the series 1-0, so a Fever loss ends Indiana’s season and a Fever win forces a deciding Game 3 in Las Vegas on Thursday.
What channel is the Aces vs. Fever game on?
Game 2 is carried on Prime Video. Michael Grady handles play-by-play with LaChina Robinson and Candace Parker on analysis and Kayla Grey reporting. Local radio coverage runs on 93.5/107.5 The Fan in Indianapolis, with John Nolan on the call and Bria Goss providing analysis.
Where are the Aces and Fever playing?
The game is at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Indiana went 15-7 at home during the regular season. Game 1 was played at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, and a deciding Game 3, if needed, would return there on Thursday, October 1.
Who won the last meeting between the Aces and Fever?
Las Vegas won Game 1 on September 27 by a score of 102-85. A’ja Wilson led all scorers with 38 points on 15-of-19 shooting and added 16 rebounds. Jackie Young contributed 21 points and 10 assists. Indiana was led by Aliyah Boston with 18 points and eight rebounds.
Where do the Aces and Fever stand in the standings?
Las Vegas finished the regular season 31-13 and earned the third seed. Indiana finished 28-16 and took the sixth seed. The Fever won the regular-season series between them two games to one, with both of those wins coming on the road in Las Vegas.