The Minnesota Lynx open Tuesday night in Brooklyn facing elimination, which is not where a 33-11 top seed expected to be. New York won Game 1 of this best-of-three first-round series 91-75 and can close it out at home. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite on the road, with the total posted at 171.5. Both numbers have moved since they opened. The reasons behind that movement shape the read that follows, and two picks come after the matchup and the market are laid out.
Last Updated: September 29, 2026
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty — Game Info
| Where | Barclays Center, Brooklyn NY |
| When | September 29 – 8:30 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Betting Preview
Minnesota finished 33-11 and claimed the No. 1 seed. Cheryl Reeve won a record fifth Coach of the Year award for the work. Rookie guard Olivia Miles was a unanimous Rookie of the Year selection. New York finished 26-18 as the No. 8 seed. However, that record undersells the roster. This is largely the same core that beat Minnesota in the 2024 Finals.
Game 1 went wrong for the favorite in specific, traceable ways. Breanna Stewart scored 34 points with 12 rebounds and six assists on 11-of-18 shooting. Leonie Fiebich added 16 points and hit four of five from three. As a team, New York made 13 of 25 attempts from deep. Minnesota actually led 44-40 at halftime. The Lynx then scored 31 points after the break and lost by 16.
Foul trouble was the other story. Napheesa Collier and Natasha Howard both fouled out, with Howard gone in 18 minutes. Collier finished with 12 points on 6-of-14 shooting. Reeve was blunt afterward about the free throws her team handed over. Miles struggled as well, going 3-for-12 with four turnovers in her playoff debut. Collier’s own season has been a compressed one. She played 16 regular-season games after double ankle surgery, averaging 16.8 points and 6.9 rebounds on 50% shooting. That is production, but it is not a full season of rhythm.
Availability is largely settled. Satou Sabally is out for the season for New York, while Jonquel Jones played through a left ankle injury in Game 1. Minnesota remains without Anastasiia Olairi Kosu and Emma Cechova. New York won the regular-season series 2-1, taking the July 3 meeting 99-86 and the September 18 meeting 93-81. Minnesota’s lone win came 90-85 on July 11.
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | -3.5 (-115) | -170 | O 171.5 (-110) |
| Liberty | 3.5 (-105) | +145 | U 171.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Minnesota Lynx | 44% | 56% | New York Liberty |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction — The 13-for-25 Night That Decided Game 1
New York shot 52% from three in Game 1. Across the regular season the Liberty shot 34.8% from deep, on the third-highest volume in the league. That gap is the largest single reason the scoreboard read 91-75. Shooting nights like that are real, and they win playoff games. Still, they do not arrive on demand. Fiebich going 4-for-5 is the kind of contribution that a defense cannot plan around. It is also not something New York can count on seeing twice. The same applies to Stewart’s free-throw volume, which Reeve singled out afterward as self-inflicted.
The season-long picture still points the other way. Minnesota ranked second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating over 44 games. New York ranked sixth and seventh in those same categories. Minnesota also shot 38.2% from three on the season, better than New York did. The Lynx led at halftime before the third quarter turned, which suggests the gap between these teams is situational rather than structural.
The market has quietly taken the same side. Minnesota opened at -3.0 and now sits at -3.5, even though 56% of spread tickets are on New York. A number that drifts away from the ticket majority is the familiar footprint of sharper money. In contrast, the case against is straightforward and serious. Stewart is a genuine matchup problem. Collier is only 16 games removed from double ankle surgery. New York has also won three of the last four meetings between these teams. Laying points on the road in an elimination game is never comfortable. For more on how this series was priced before it began, see our Game 1 breakdown of this matchup.
The Pick: Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-115)
Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction — Three Meetings, Three Trips Past 172 Points
The regular-season series argues loudly for points. The three meetings produced 185, 175 and 174 combined points. Every one of them cleared the number posted here. That is the honest case against what follows, and it is not a small one. New York also ranks third in three-point volume, which raises the ceiling on any given night.
Game 1 looked different. The teams combined for 166 points, and Minnesota managed only 31 after halftime. Both defenses rank inside the league’s top seven by rating. Pace offers no help to the over either, since the two teams finished the season within a possession of each other. The halves tell the same story. Minnesota and New York combined for 84 points before the break and 82 after it. Neither figure projects toward a 172-point game. Meanwhile, the market has already trimmed the total from 172.5 to 171.5. Reeve’s stated priority is cutting the cheap fouls that sent New York to the line repeatedly, and fewer free throws means fewer easy points. This read shares an input with the first pick. Both improve if Minnesota fouls less, so they are not fully independent.
The Pick: Under 171.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Lynx vs. Liberty
Minnesota holds the better roster and the better season-long numbers. New York holds the better recent evidence and the home floor. That tension is why the price sits where it does. A moneyline of -170 implies a break-even win rate near 63%, which is a lot to ask of a team that just lost by 16. The spread at -3.5 (-115) asks for roughly 53.5% instead. The gap between those two prices is where the value lives on this game.
Neither read is a comfortable one, and the article has said why. Minnesota needs Collier and Howard on the floor in the fourth quarter rather than on the bench in foul trouble. If that happens, the Lynx are the better team by a clear margin. If it does not, New York closes out the top seed in two games. Our earlier look at Minnesota’s late-season form against Indiana covers how the Lynx were trending into this postseason.
Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-115) is the stronger play, because New York’s 13-for-25 night from deep is not a repeatable edge. Under 171.5 (-110) follows it, since both defenses rank inside the top seven and the market has already shaved a point off the opening total.
WNBA Lynx vs. Liberty FAQ: September 29, 2026
What time does the Lynx vs. Liberty game start?
Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This is Game 2 of the best-of-three first-round series, and New York leads it 1-0. A Game 3, if needed, would be played Thursday, October 1 in Minnesota.
What channel is the Lynx vs. Liberty game on?
The game airs nationally on USA Network, with CNBC also carrying the broadcast. Game 1 of this series was shown on ABC, so viewers looking in the same place they watched Sunday will need to change the channel for Tuesday night.
Where are the Lynx and Liberty playing?
The game is at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Minnesota held home-court advantage as the No. 1 seed, so Games 1 and 3 belong to Target Center. New York hosts only this middle game of the first-round series.
Who won the last meeting between the Lynx and Liberty?
New York won 91-75 in Minnesota on September 27 in Game 1. Breanna Stewart led all scorers with 34 points, adding 12 rebounds and six assists. The Liberty made 13 of 25 three-point attempts and held the Lynx to 31 second-half points.
What is the season series record between the Lynx and Liberty?
New York won the regular-season series 2-1. The Liberty took the July 3 meeting 99-86 and the September 18 meeting 93-81. Minnesota’s win came 90-85 on July 11. Counting Game 1 of this series, New York has won three of the last four.
Where do the Lynx and Liberty stand in the standings?
Minnesota finished 33-11 and earned the No. 1 seed with the league’s best record. New York finished 26-18 and entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. The Liberty now lead the first-round series 1-0 and can advance with a win on Tuesday.