Our Liberty vs Lynx prediction for Game 1 starts with a health check on both rosters. The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx host the eighth-seeded New York Liberty on Sunday afternoon to open a best-of-three first-round series. Minnesota is laying 7.5 points after opening at 6.5. However, New York took two of three regular-season meetings, including a 12-point win in Minneapolis just nine days ago. Three key players also carry injury tags into tip-off. Below, we break down the market, the matchup and the two plays we like for Game 1.
Last Updated: September 27, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Game Info
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis Minnesota |
| When | September 27 – 2:00 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview
Availability shapes this game more than anything on the stat sheet. Minnesota rookie guard Olivia Miles sat out the final two regular-season games with a left calf strain. She averaged 19.8 points this season, and reports from Bring Me The Sports and SI both say she is expected to play. Her status was not official at the time of writing, so any Minnesota read here is provisional on her.
New York has bigger questions. Breanna Stewart, who averaged 20.8 points and 8.3 rebounds, is managing knee swelling that head coach Chris DeMarco described as precautionary. Jonquel Jones rolled her left ankle in the regular-season finale and was listed as questionable. According to the New York Post, both were nearly full participants in Saturday’s practice. Meanwhile, forward Satou Sabally was ruled out for the rest of the season with a head injury.
The form lines point in different directions. Minnesota finished 33-11, the best record in the league, and went 15-7 at home. New York finished 26-18 and slid to the No. 8 seed after back-to-back losses to Atlanta, the second an 83-65 defeat. Still, the Lynx went just 2-3 over their last five games, though they closed with an 86-66 rout of Indiana. Per Basketball Reference, Minnesota’s net rating of plus-9.0 was nearly five points per 100 possessions better than New York’s plus-4.0.
Rotations are short, so the starting groups matter. Minnesota’s projected starters are Miles, Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, Napheesa Collier and Natasha Howard. McBride averaged 17.6 points and made 126 threes, while Howard added 14.8 points and 7.6 rebounds. New York is projected to start Sabrina Ionescu, Pauline Astier, Leonie Fiebich, Stewart and Jones. Ionescu averaged 14.6 points, and Fiebich shot 41% from three. The Liberty bench, including Rebecca Allen and Marine Johannes, becomes more important if Jones is limited.
The season series favored New York. The Liberty won 99-86 at home on July 3, dropped a 90-85 decision in Minneapolis on July 11, then won 93-81 at Target Center on September 18. Stewart posted 24 points and 10 rebounds in that last meeting. On the other side, Collier has averaged 16.8 points on 44% three-point shooting since returning from injury.
Stylistically, the two teams play at nearly the same speed, about 79 possessions per 40 minutes. The contrast is in shot selection. New York attempts 29.3 threes per game and makes 10.2 of them. In contrast, Minnesota hits 38.2% from deep on fewer attempts. The Lynx also force more mistakes, averaging 8.7 steals to New York’s 6.1.
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | +7.5 (-105) | +230 | O 172.5 (-105) |
| Lynx | -7.5 (-115) | -280 | U 172.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 58% | 42% | Lynx |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction — Will Minnesota Cover Spread?
Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point favorite and now sits at 7.5. That move came while 58% of spread bets backed New York. When a number moves against the ticket count, it usually means the larger wagers sit on the other side. The moneyline split tells a different story, with 92% of those bets on Minnesota. Even so, the spread is the market that moved, and it moved toward the Lynx.
The research points the same way. Minnesota was the better team over 44 games, and it has home court. The Liberty frontcourt is the concern. Jones averaged 14.5 points and 9.1 rebounds, and she anchors a defensive glass that finished well above league average. If she is limited, Stewart carries more of the interior load on a sore knee. At -115, the price asks for a 53.5% win rate, which is a fair ask with Miles expected back. Minnesota’s 15-7 home record also compares well with New York’s 12-10 mark on the road.
The case against is real. New York beat this team by 12 in this building nine days ago, and the value at 6.5 is already gone. The Liberty’s three-point volume also gives them a way to chase down a late deficit. This is a lean rather than a strong play, and it depends on Miles playing and Jones being limited.
The Pick: Lynx -7.5 (-115)
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction — Will Under Cash for Bettors?
The total opened at 173.5 and has dropped to 172.5. Recent scoring supports that move. Minnesota’s last 10 games averaged 167.1 combined points, and New York’s averaged 167.9. Both figures sit roughly five points below this number. New York’s defense has also tightened, allowing 78.8 points per game over its last five. Minnesota allowed 83.7 points per game across the full season. A Liberty rotation already missing Sabally, and possibly working around Jones, also has fewer scoring options.
The counterpoint is the head-to-head. All three meetings cleared this number, with combined totals of 185, 175 and 174. However, the last two landed within three points of the line, which suggests the market has this matchup priced close to fair. This play also rests partly on the same Jones input as the first one, so the two are not fully independent.
The Pick: Under 172.5 (-115)
Our Final Word on Liberty vs. Lynx
Game 1 of a best-of-three series carries extra weight, and both teams arrive with real health questions. A Game 1 win would leave either side one victory from advancing, with Game 2 set for New York on Tuesday. The final injury report on Miles and Jones is the key input for both plays, and a late change on either could move these numbers again. For more context on both teams, see our Fever vs. Lynx preview from September 24 and our Dream vs. Liberty preview from September 23.
Lynx -7.5 (-115) is our top play, backed by a spread move toward Minnesota while 58% of tickets sat on New York. Under 172.5 (-115) is our second play, since both teams’ last 10 games averaged about 167 combined points.
WNBA Liberty vs. Lynx FAQ: September 27, 2026
What time does the Liberty vs. Lynx game start?
The Liberty vs. Lynx game tips off at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis. That is 1 p.m. local time in Minnesota. It is Game 1 of the best-of-three first-round series between the top-seeded Lynx and the eighth-seeded Liberty.
What channel is the Liberty vs. Lynx game on?
The Liberty vs. Lynx game airs nationally on ABC on Sunday afternoon. Game 1 of the first-round series tips off at 2 p.m. ET from Target Center in Minneapolis. Game 2 of the series shifts to New York on Tuesday, September 29.
What is the season series record between the Liberty and Lynx?
New York won the 2026 regular-season series 2-1. The Liberty won 99-86 at home on July 3, the Lynx won 90-85 in Minneapolis on July 11, and New York won 93-81 at Target Center on September 18. Stewart scored 24 points in that most recent meeting.
Where do the Liberty and Lynx stand in the standings?
Minnesota finished 33-11, the best record in the WNBA, and earned the No. 1 playoff seed. New York finished 26-18 and entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. Their best-of-three series opens in Minneapolis, shifts to New York for Game 2 on September 29, and returns to Minneapolis on October 1 if a Game 3 is needed.
Is Satou Sabally playing for the Liberty?
No. Satou Sabally will not play in this series. The Liberty forward was ruled out for the rest of the 2026 season because of a head injury she suffered in June. New York’s other Game 1 concerns involve Breanna Stewart, who is managing knee swelling, and Jonquel Jones, who is questionable with a left ankle injury.